The 12th Annual Bracket Betting Bible

Strengths: A fucking cheat code. True national-title profile with elite efficiency on both ends and the double-bye. Path is basically 'don't get bored' and they're live to roll everyone by double digits. Led the ACC in scoring margin at +20.5 while allowing just 62.5 PPG.

Weaknesses: Not healthy and will most likely be missing key guys, making them a vulnerable 1 seed. Focused on March Madness, not this tournament. The only real weakness when healthy is running into a super-physical, offensive-rebounding team that can get them in foul trouble and shorten the rotation.

Notes: Last year it helped them in March Madness playing their whole conf tourney getting secondary players run. Could be the same situation this year. Duke is probably good enough to win without their injured guys like they did last year, but we don't know how long the injuries last.

Strengths: Not your grandpa's UVA, ranking top 20% in a bunch of offensive categories for the first time. Actually averaged over 80 a game this year. Balanced, efficient offense and top-end defense means they can win both shootouts and rock fights and are built to close late. Thrives in the cracker factor department. With injuries to Duke and UNC, Virginia is live as fuck.

Weaknesses: Can be had by athletic, turnover-creating guards who blow up their sets and force them into ugly, end-of-clock jumpers.

Notes: This is my favorite 'non-Duke' team in the conference. With the injuries to Duke and UNC in the tourney, Virginia is live as fuck here to take this thing down.

Strengths: Offense-first with high-end scoring efficiency and shooting. Real 'win the whole thing if they get hot for three days' upside. Avoids Duke on their side of the bracket, which is their biggest edge.

Weaknesses: More average defense that can get bullied at the rim. Physical, downhill attacks that live in the paint and at the line are the bad draw.

Notes: Considering the draw, +2000 is looking like the best value on the board. Way too much for a team who won't see Duke til the finals.

Strengths: N/A. Not favored even when healthy.

Weaknesses: Lost one of the best players in the country. If they beat Clemson, Duke will skull fuck them.

Notes: ZERO value here. This is actually more of a Clemson write-up. On this side of the bracket, Clemson getting UNC before a faceoff with Duke (also down stars) makes Clemson at +4000 very sexy.

Strengths: Sitting in the ABSOLUTE PERFECT SPOT for their price. Avoids Virginia and Miami. Gets a wounded duck UNC team before meeting Duke. Built to win slow, physical games with a legit stingy defense and workmanlike offense. Perfect for covering as a dog and dragging favorites into the mud. Deep enough to make a deep run with their defensive style. Facing 2 injured blue bloods.

Weaknesses: If forced into an up-tempo, shot-trading track meet, they don't have enough offensive gear to keep up with true gunslingers. ACC tourney woes of years past.

Notes: I would actually rather play Duke BEFORE the finals because they may rush a guy back for the title game but I don't foresee them doing that in the semis. Great value if they can shake their ACC tourney woes.

Strengths: Classic 'which team shows up' squad that bombs away and can hang 90 on anyone. Extremely live as a short dog or plus-money future.

Weaknesses: Can get run over inside and don't always get stops. Strong post teams and high free-throw-rate opponents are land mines.

Notes: DESPISE their draw: potentially SMU, then Miami, then Virginia, then Duke. That's a gauntlet from jump street. 1300 is a horrible price.

Strengths: Big-shot, guard-driven team that leans on threes and great turnover margin. Pure 'guard goes nuclear' upset equity. Volume shooting with the league's best turnover margin and assist/turnover ratio.

Weaknesses: If the jumpers don't fall or someone runs them off the line, the defense isn't good enough to drag them through a brick-fest. Not the same squad as 2 years ago.

Notes: Can make a run again if they get hot. Will sprinkle on them but not go all in like 2024.

Strengths: Built on length, pressure, and shot-blocking. Defense is better than the offense and can really bother favorites on short prep.

Weaknesses: Half-court scoring and shooting are a disaster. Long droughts kill them. Shoot 32% from three as a team. Going to be involved in a lot of three-point shootouts since they love to chuck and struggle on D vs the three, but they'll have a clunker and get knocked out.

Notes: Will have a clunker and get knocked out.

Strengths: Clean underdog profile: efficient offense, good free-throw and three-point shooting. Exactly what you want from an 8/9 seed trying to punch up. Leads the league in free throw percentage which is HUGE in conference tourney games. Had an irregular travel schedule all year and now gets to stay in one place for a week, which is a sneaky edge.

Weaknesses: Vulnerable on the glass and in rim protection. Big, physical frontcourts that live off second-chances can grind them into dust.

Notes: Interesting sneaky edge with the travel situation but not a futures play.

Strengths: Has a true scoring sicko who can steal a game on his own. Ending the season strong with 4 straight wins. Gets to stay in one spot after traveling like crazy all year on the West Coast.

Weaknesses: Middling overall team with slightly above-average offense and meh defense. Very top heavy.

Notes: DO NOT BE SHOCKED if Ebuka nukes and carries these guys deep. We've had a lot of betting success with Stanford this year.

Strengths: Poor man's Miami: top-side offense, bottom-side defense, and pace that turns every game into a high-variance shootout. Can rip off two wins if they see soft defenses. Beat UNC and almost beat Duke early on. Gives NC State 2024 vibes.

Weaknesses: Any opponent that can slow tempo and score efficiently will expose every leak. Fallen apart late, losing 4 straight.

Notes: If they can reset and get hot, this team can fuck some shit up.

Strengths: Solid shooting, spacing the floor, knocking down enough threes to scare anyone as a Tuesday/Wednesday underdog.

Weaknesses: 'Solid shooting, average everything else' zone. When teams switch and stay home on shooters, average athleticism and lack of elite size really shows up.

Notes: Underdog only. Not a futures play.

Strengths: Mayhem in a gold jersey. Built to stun a sloppy favorite. Can turn a game into a circus and win a game or two.

Weaknesses: Offense is erratic, defense is leaky. Rarely strings together 40 clean minutes twice. Cannot guard the paint.

Notes: Best path is as a dog in an up-tempo, turnover-heavy game.

Strengths: Still leans on zone and perimeter scoring. Can absolutely pop one upset if an opponent forgets how to shoot from the arc.

Weaknesses: The zone isn't what it used to be. Good scouting plus offensive rebounding will break them over 40 minutes.

Notes: One upset potential at best.

Strengths: Grind-you-down team leaning on physicality and pace control to keep games ugly. Upside as a big dog in a low-possession rock fight.

Weaknesses: Below-average offense and just-okay defense. Low ceiling. If forced to trade buckets with a competent attack, they're cooked.

Notes: Not going anywhere.

Strengths: The bully of this league. They've got the athletes, the size, the shooting, and if this thing stays anywhere near their tempo they should absolutely run away with it. By far the best team in the conference and it's not even close. Double-bye.

Weaknesses: The only real way to beat them is to drag them into a slow, whistle-heavy rock fight, get them in foul trouble and force role players to win a half-court slog. Anything else and you're just standing in front of a train.

Notes: Michigan around even money is still playable because they're that much better. One of my favorite bets of the entire season.

Strengths: That grown-man, no-nonsense squad nobody talks about until you look up and they're up double digits on Friday. Tough as hell, don't beat themselves. Sitting on the right side of the bracket away from Michigan and Illinois until the final, which is exactly what we want at a decent number. Double-bye.

Weaknesses: Not as sexy as Michigan. Doesn't have the same ceiling or firepower. Can be ground down by elite athletes who can match their physicality.

Notes: At their price on the softer side of the bracket, they make way more sense than some of the overhyped brands that have to go through Michigan and Illinois just to get a shot at Sunday.

Strengths: Classic Izzo team: physical, mean, and built for March fistfights, not January highlight reels. They'll absolutely drag you into a 40-minute car crash. On the softer side of the bracket away from Michigan and Illinois. Double-bye.

Weaknesses: Not enough offensive firepower to outscore elite teams. Relies on grinding and physicality, which can backfire against teams with superior guard play.

Notes: At their price on the softer side of the bracket, they make way more sense than the overhyped brands. But I'm just not a big Sparty guy.

Strengths: When they're right they can absolutely beat any team in the nation. Dangerous, talented, and well-coached. Double-bye.

Weaknesses: Dealing with an injury that knocks a chunk off their ceiling. On the Michigan side of the bracket, meaning they face Michigan in the semis. That's a death sentence at this price.

Notes: +400 for a team who will face Michigan in the semis is FUCKING RETARDED. Between the injury issues and the side of the bracket, this is more of a 'respect them' team than a 'bet them' team. Sticking them at a short number while asking them to survive a gauntlet with Michigan, a hot Ohio State, Wisconsin and Iowa is insane. That +400 range is a straight tax on the logo.

Strengths: Not who you think they are this year. Normally slow, annoying, and absolutely thrilled to win 58-55, but this year they've actually been putting up points, including a 97-93 shootout win over Purdue to end the season. Fantastic as a dog and in ugly matchups, but can also gun with the big guys this year. Got that cracker factor. Double-bye.

Weaknesses: On the tough side of the bracket with Michigan, Illinois, Ohio State, and Iowa. That's a murderers' row just to get to Saturday.

Notes: +2700 is interesting even though they are in the tough side of the bracket.

Strengths: Quietly dangerous with five double-figure scorers and an elite playmaking point guard who is one of the best facilitators in the country. 28th in KenPom with elite offensive efficiency (49th nationally). Dominant at home at 16-1, including wins over top-10 ranked Purdue, Illinois, and Nebraska. On the softer side of the bracket away from Michigan and Illinois. Double-bye. Rallied from 23 down to beat Illinois in overtime, so they've shown they can compete with the best in the conference when locked in.

Weaknesses: 3-9 on the road is atrocious and one of the worst road records among tournament-caliber teams. The defense is middle of the pack (171st nationally in adjusted D). In a neutral-site tournament, the road woes are the major concern. If that home/road split follows them to Chicago, they're one-and-done.

Notes: The talent is there and the bracket position is favorable, but that 3-9 road record is terrifying for a neutral-site tournament. If the road woes don't travel to Chicago, UCLA could be a real problem on the bottom half. Worth monitoring but a risky futures play.

Strengths: Has all the numbers, the size, and the same story every year. On paper they can absolutely beat anyone in this league. Double-bye.

Weaknesses: They choke every damn March (except when they have a 9 foot tall asian at center and the refs cheat for them) and are already shitting the bed late this season.

Notes: A team I'll maybe back in a single matchup if the line is off, but as a futures ticket they're an automatic 'hell no.'

Strengths: Coming in hot as hell and fits the exact 'nobody wants to see them right now' mold. When they're rolling, they look like a top-tier team, not a mid seed. Double-bye.

Weaknesses: Lives in the top-half blender with Michigan, Illinois, Wisconsin and Iowa. Asking them to run that gauntlet for a title is asking for a heart attack.

Notes: Love them for one or two upset plays, but asking them to run that gauntlet for a title is asking for a heart attack.

Strengths: The annual gritty-white-boy circus that I would put a future on every year even if their whole starting lineup was hurt, cause they have that dawg in them. This year they actually have a MUCH BETTER defense than usual, allowing only 65 PPG which is best in the Big Ten. This team just fights and knows how to win. Elite cracker factor.

Weaknesses: The offense took a step back from years past. On the tough side of the bracket. 10-10 in conference play tells you they're inconsistent.

Notes: Whenever you can get Iowa at +8000 you gotta sprinkle it.

Strengths: Has just enough talent to sucker you in. On the right night they look like they belong with the big boys.

Weaknesses: Just enough chaos to blow up your ticket at the worst possible time. On the wrong night they're out there throwing the ball into the third row and bricking free throws.

Notes: I can't get this fucking team right ever, so fuck em I'm out.

Strengths: Plays like a team that knows they're not as talented and doesn't care. They scrap, they rebound, they hang around, and they're a pain in the ass as a big dog.

Weaknesses: Eventually somebody has to make real shots, and when they have to create offense late instead of just grinding, the wheels tend to come off.

Notes: Can sneak a win or 2 out but not going on a run.

Strengths: Brings some West Coast juice into a Midwest bar fight, which can catch a lazy favorite completely off guard for one game.

Weaknesses: Over a few days the lack of true Big Ten meat on the bones shows up. Can get muscled on the glass and worn down by teams that live at the rim and the stripe.

Notes: The West Coast flash is sexy, until it gets its fudge packed by the Midwest meat.

Strengths: Pure chaos energy. They've got guards who can go nuts for stretches.

Weaknesses: Then they look like they don't know what sport they're playing 3 minutes later. Once the game slows down and every trip matters, they're dead.

Notes: A fucking basketcase. I don't think they win a game.

Strengths: Nothing meaningful.

Weaknesses: Everything.

Notes: Rutgers sucks.

Strengths: Usually smart, well-coached, and just annoying enough to ruin one favorite's week with a flurry of threes and charges.

Weaknesses: This year is not that year.

Notes: Not this year.

Strengths: Usually a team that can beat anyone or lose to anyone.

Weaknesses: This is not the same Maryland. They have no chance this year.

Notes: Not the same Maryland. No chance.

Strengths: The shooting numbers are elite nationally, not just in CUSA, and when you pair that with being the 3rd most experienced roster in the entire country, you get a team that doesn't beat itself. 10-2 on the road proves they don't need home cooking. They handled Sam Houston in both meetings, which neutralizes the biggest threat in the field. AMAZING cracker factor. The experience edge is massive in a multi-day tournament where young teams tend to fade.

Weaknesses: They are one of the smallest teams in the entire country and the worst rebounding team in the conference by a country mile. That means one bad shooting night with zero second chances could end them. If a physical team pounds the glass and contests their threes, the shooting advantage disappears and they have no Plan B.

Notes: Liberty is small as fuck and can't rebound, but they are the 3rd most veteran team in the country, shoot 40% from three, and have a 60.2% EFG which is nuts. As long as they can grab ANY boards, their pedigree, experience, and shooting should carry them to the title. +260 is the pick.

Strengths: The most efficient two-way team in the league by the advanced numbers. They rebound better than anyone in CUSA, which gives them second chances and limits opponents. They can also shoot from deep, so they're not one-dimensional. The cover rate is best in the conference by far, meaning they've been beating the number all year.

Weaknesses: Banged up coming in, which matters in a multi-day tournament. The road record is terrible for a team that needs to win at a neutral site. They're undersized and younger than you'd want for a tourney run. Most importantly, they lost to Liberty twice, the team they'd likely have to beat in the finals.

Notes: I do not think they deserve to be the favorite here. They appear to be a matchup nightmare vs Liberty since they can shoot with them but pound them on the boards, but Liberty handled them in both meetings. No interest at this short price.

Strengths: Second best rebounding team in the league, so they'll get extra possessions against smaller teams. The defense is solid and Moore is a legit go-to scorer, the kind of guy you need in tight tourney games. Best free throw shooting team in the conference means they close games at the line. Experienced enough to stay steady when younger teams panic.

Weaknesses: The three-point shooting and overall efficiency are near the bottom of the tournament field, and that's a fatal flaw in a conference where shooting wins titles. The offense is below average efficiency-wise. They can rebound and defend but simply can't score well enough against a team that gets hot.

Notes: Nice squad, decent value at +500, but in this league you gotta be able to shoot and they can't. Will run into a hot team at some point and lose.

Strengths: Best defensive team in the conference. They suffocate opponents and make every game ugly. They also clean the glass and are one of the tallest teams nationally, giving them a real physical edge in a conference full of small teams. Won 6 of their last 9 including wins over both Sam Houston and Liberty, proving the defense travels against the best. Elite at home with a solid cover rate.

Weaknesses: The offense is broken from everywhere. Worst three-point shooting and worst free throw shooting in the entire conference. The advanced numbers confirm the offense actively hurts them. Young and haven't won away from home. If the defense has an off night, the offense can't bail them out.

Notes: The defense is legit and they've beaten the best teams in the league. At +1200, better value than MTSU even though both are good. Horrible draw for both of them facing each other in the quarters. Sprinkle small.

Strengths: Five-game win streak means they're playing their best ball at the right time. One of the tallest teams in the country, which is a massive size advantage in a conference full of small teams. The offense is functional and can score in the half court. Veteran enough to handle tournament pressure.

Weaknesses: The defense is average at best, so they'll need to outscore people rather than grind them down. The advanced efficiency numbers confirm they're slightly below break-even as a team. The road record is mediocre.

Notes: Super hot coming in and the winner of La Tech/MTSU can 100% knock off Liberty. HORRIBLE draw playing La Tech early, but at +2200 there's value. Sprinkle small.

Strengths: Simeon Cottle is a certified bucket who can take over a game single-handedly. They dominate the glass, tied for best rebounding in the conference. One of the tallest teams nationally gives them a physical edge. They can score in bunches when Cottle is cooking.

Weaknesses: They're too young, and young teams make young mistakes in tournament settings. Worst cover rate in CUSA means they're wildly inconsistent against the spread. The defense is leaky and they struggle away from home. Three-point shooting limits their ceiling when Cottle isn't going off.

Notes: A bit too young. Cottle can go nuclear on any given night, but the inexperience and worst cover rate in the conference screams inconsistency.

Strengths: Mostapha El Moutaouakkil is a legit individual scorer who can keep them in games. Second best defensive PPG in the conference means they don't give up easy buckets. Solid over rate shows they've been competitive more often than not.

Weaknesses: The offense is limited beyond El Moutaouakkil. The advanced numbers paint a below-average team overall. The road record is poor and they lack the experience to string together multiple tournament wins. Decent shooting but not enough firepower to outscore better teams.

Notes: No interest. Gets NM State in the first round and then likely Sam Houston. Not going anywhere.

Strengths: Corey Stephenson can go off and steal a game on his own. Decent offensive rebounding gives them some extra possessions. Solid cover rate and respectable three-point shooting mean they're not a total pushover on any given night.

Weaknesses: The advanced numbers say they're a below-average team. The defense gives up too many points and they're one of the smallest and least experienced teams in the field. 3-10 on the road is brutal for a neutral-site tournament.

Notes: No interest. Faces Missouri State first round and then Liberty. Dead on arrival.

Strengths: Three double-figure scorers means the offense has some balance and isn't reliant on one guy. Solid over rate and cover rate suggest they've been more competitive than the seed suggests.

Weaknesses: One of the least experienced teams in the entire conference, which is a death sentence in a multi-day tournament. The defense is terrible, the road record is awful, and poor free throw shooting means they can't close tight games. The advanced numbers confirm what the eye test shows: not good enough.

Notes: No interest. First round fodder.

Strengths: Jemel Jones can fill it up and the over rate is actually the highest in the conference, meaning their games tend to be high-scoring affairs. If you're looking at game totals, that's worth noting.

Weaknesses: The defense is the worst in the tournament field. They're undersized, can't shoot from three, and the road record is terrible. The advanced numbers say they're a below-average team with no real path to multiple wins.

Notes: No interest in the bottom 4 playing in this conference.

Strengths: Has been the big dog all year. Physical, efficient, and deep. Real argument they're the best roster in the country, not just the Big 12. Most consistent team in the league. Went 16-2 in conference and absolutely looks the part of a 1-seed nationally. Double-bye into Thursday.

Weaknesses: On the tougher side of the bracket. The issue isn't 'are they good enough?' it's 'do you really want to lay short numbers in a tough bracket?' If you bet this straight you are maxing it and making it worth the short side.

Notes: Better suited in futures parlays than as a straight bet. The price is too short to hammer straight, but they're totally fine as a parlay piece with other big boy programs that don't beat themselves.

Strengths: Can still turn every game into a fistfight, lives on the offensive glass, and rarely gives you a clean look. Perfectly built for three games in three days. If the refs let them play, they can choke out three wins in three very ugly nights. Double-bye.

Weaknesses: The D is not as dominant as years past, although you can argue the offense is better. Rough path in terms of physical toll. No cracker factor whatsoever.

Notes: Don't want anything to do with this price. If you know me you know I always fade the teams with no cracker factor.

Strengths: Absolute dream draw on the bottom half: no Arizona, no Iowa State, and even the most dangerous double-digit seed hits Houston first. Has gunners who can score. The number has value given the draw.

Weaknesses: In my opinion the most overrated team in the country. Too reliant on one guy to bail them out. Not sold they can go blow-for-blow with Arizona or Houston without him having a superhero week.

Notes: Value on the number, but I hate the team. The draw is a dream but I don't think they have the juice to beat the true alphas when everything tightens up.

Strengths: When healthy, this was one of my favorite longshot tickets in the entire country. Tough, balanced, and built to grind people down. Double-bye.

Weaknesses: Missing a key player and staring at a path of Iowa State, then Houston, then Arizona. Without him, it feels like too much to ask.

Notes: You can look at them in single-game spots, but as a 'win the whole thing' play, I'm basically out.

Strengths: My favorite team to actually steal this tournament. They defend, they're well-coached, and KC is basically a home game setting. The time off after a BRUTAL end-of-season schedule should help them reset. Single bye into Wednesday.

Weaknesses: The bracket is a war crime. Tech right away (who already beat them), then Arizona and Houston stacked on top of each other if chalk holds. The sheer lack of soft spots makes this a tough climb. Faded to end the year.

Notes: Too committed to them to not go in on them now, but I wish they didn't fade to end the year. No key player missing for Tech makes that first game winnable.

Strengths: Athletic and nasty when locked in. Ball pressure and rim attacking can really bother a team like Kansas. Single bye into Wednesday.

Weaknesses: Decision-making is the problem. When the game speeds up too much, they can absolutely play themselves out of a win with dumb turnovers and hero ball.

Notes: Dangerous in a single-game spot against Kansas but hard to see a deep run.

Strengths: Ugly, physical, and desperate to turn every game into a 59-55 mugging. Around two-thirds of their games have lived on the under side because they grind possessions to dust. Single bye into Wednesday.

Weaknesses: Insanely whistle-dependent. If the refs let them maul people, they can steal a game or two. If not, they foul out and go home.

Notes: Can steal a game but not going on a run.

Strengths: Quiet bracket bomb. Shooting 38% from three and 75% from the line with experienced and big players is usually the fucking cheat code for Cinderella. Single bye into Wednesday.

Weaknesses: The bracket is a gauntlet. Starting with Cinci is a nightmare, then Arizona, Iowa State or Tech, and Houston if the bracket plays out. BLOODBATH path.

Notes: Will stab at these odds but if they were in the bottom half I think they coulda come out. The path kills the value.

Strengths: Completely changed who they are over the last month, winning 6 of 8 and smashing Kansas by overhauling their lineup. Huge and experienced.

Weaknesses: Horrific free-throw shooting team and below average from three. That's exactly the kind of flaw that flips covers and upsets into bad beats in conference tournaments. Faces UCF first then immediately runs into Arizona.

Notes: Incredible value at the number but the free throw shooting and bracket path are terrifying.

Strengths: Has a stud good enough to carry them for a game or two if he gets nuclear. Worth a flier at the price.

Weaknesses: Fallen off a cliff late with injuries. Losing a key guy is massive. Goes from scary to 'hold your nose' really fast. Dropping to the 10 seed and starting on Tuesday is probably going to kill them.

Notes: Had they stayed in the top 8 maybe, top 6 definitely, but dropping to 10 is gonna probably kill them.

Strengths: Finished quietly interesting. Three wins in their last five, and the two losses were a bludgeoning by Houston and a game where they were tied with Arizona mid-second half. Oklahoma State is a mess and missing pieces.

Weaknesses: Very home-reliant historically. Starting from Tuesday is a long road.

Notes: Buffs are the right side in the first-round matchup vs Oklahoma State. Worth a stab at these odds.

Strengths: Pure chaos. They'll fight you, make it ugly, and have enough talent to drag Baylor into the mud on Tuesday.

Weaknesses: Inconsistent. The Baylor game is going to be a bloodbath and whoever comes out won't be fresh.

Notes: More of a narrative piece than a futures play. The winner of ASU/Baylor is a tough out for Iowa State the next day.

Strengths: Has enough dudes to scare you. The talent is there somewhere.

Weaknesses: The current version of this team is nowhere close to their recent title-contender builds. Inconsistent with the ASU fistfight looming right away.

Notes: More interested in using them as a narrative piece ('this winner is a tough out') than actually backing them to win multiple games.

Strengths: Can hang for a half on effort.

Weaknesses: Limps into KC after a rough finish and now missing key players. Against anyone competent, especially a Colorado team playing better, they're outmatched.

Notes: A fade. Colorado is the right side here.

Strengths: Nothing meaningful.

Weaknesses: Full disaster this year. Two wins in their last ten and vibes of a team that just wants this over with.

Notes: One-and-done material unless the basketball gods decide to randomly reward pain.

Strengths: Does everything fine.

Weaknesses: Doesn't have the size or defense to compete in this league. 1-10 on the road. So fuck that.

Notes: 1-10 on the road. Not going anywhere.

Strengths: Best KenPom Net in the AAC by a wide margin. The rebounding is the best in the conference by a mile, and when you combine that with playing fast and scoring almost 90 a game, you get a team that overwhelms opponents with volume and second chances. Four double-figure scorers means the offense isn't reliant on one guy. 9-3 on the road shows they travel well. The bye to the semis is massive, only needing two wins.

Weaknesses: The three-point shooting is mediocre, ranking 7th in the conference. The defense gives up a lot of points, so they need to outscore you rather than lock you down. They're undersized and not that experienced. If a team can somehow keep them off the glass and force a perimeter-heavy game, there's a crack. But nobody in this conference rebounds well enough to do it.

Notes: -125 odds are justified. This team will be a staple in futures parlays and I have no issue going straight on them. The bye to the semis means they only need two wins. The rebounding edge is insurmountable for most of this league.

Strengths: The bye to the semis is a huge edge. Best cover rate in the conference means they've been beating the number all year. The only team that can match South Florida on the boards, which makes them a live underdog in a potential semifinal matchup. Second best defensive PPG in the conference and the defense grades out well by KenPom. Strong at home and solid on the road.

Weaknesses: The offense is limited. The shooting numbers across the board are below average, from three, from the field, and from the line. 317th in height is scary for a team that relies on physicality. When they can't grind you on the glass, they don't have enough firepower to win in other ways.

Notes: The only team that can match South Florida on the boards, but I think Wichita can get knocked off. The height ranking is scary and the offense just isn't elite enough. I like Tulsa more at a similar price.

Strengths: Best record in the AAC. The shooting numbers are elite nationally, not just in this league. Best three-point percentage, best EFG, best free throw percentage, and best adjusted offensive efficiency in the conference. Four double-figure scorers who can all shoot. Strong at home and solid on the road. Getting a game in before the semis can actually be a benefit to knock the rust off.

Weaknesses: The defense is the weak link, ranking 4th in the conference. The rebounding is middle of the pack, so they can't match South Florida or Wichita on the glass. They need to outscore you rather than outmuscle you. Highest over rate in the conference means their games tend to be shootouts.

Notes: I like Tulsa more than Wichita and Vegas obviously agrees since they have lower odds to win it all even having to play an extra game. You can argue Tulsa can knock off South Florida too with their shooting, so there is real value at +320. Those metrics are stupid good.

Strengths: The offense grades out well and they rebound at the 3rd best clip in the conference. Four double-figure scorers means there's real talent on this roster. 10-2 on the road is one of the weirdest and best road records in the league. First-round bye gives them one fewer game to worry about.

Weaknesses: Haven't won 3 games in a row since FUCKING NOVEMBER. Worst three-point shooting in the entire conference at 27.9%. The home record is actually losing, which makes no sense paired with the road record. Mediocre KenPom Net, undersized, and not experienced enough. The inconsistency is the killer.

Notes: As much as they have talent, I am not betting them to string wins together now. A team that hasn't won 3 straight since November is not winning a conference tournament.

Strengths: 16th tallest team in the country, which is a real physical edge in this conference. Second best three-point shooting in the league and the offense grades out decently. Has legit interior size. First-round bye.

Weaknesses: The advanced numbers are mediocre, basically a break-even team. The defense is one of the worst in the conference. Poor road record and one of the least experienced teams in the field. The scoring margin is essentially zero.

Notes: Just meh. They don't jump off the page in any way. Could get knocked off by Memphis. If not, they won't make it past UAB and South Florida.

Strengths: Best defensive PPG in the entire conference and the best defense by KenPom. Strong at home and the under rate tells you these games are ugly rock fights. Three guys who can score in double figures. First-round bye.

Weaknesses: The offense is anemic, second worst among tournament teams. Can't shoot from three, second worst in the conference. The EFG is terrible. Very whistle-reliant, meaning they need free throws to score, and that's a dangerous game plan in a tournament setting.

Notes: The West Virginia of this conference. Boring, nothing sexy, but can give you fits on defense. Very whistle-reliant. FAU should overpower them if healthy.

Strengths: The offense grades out well and they can rebound, ranking 4th in the conference. Three talented scorers and a solid cover rate. Strong at home. Now healthy after being the most injured team in the conference all year, meaning this is not the same team you watched all season. Great draw: Temple first (who sucks), then a weak North Texas before a dogfight with Tulsa. On the opposite side of the bracket from South Florida.

Weaknesses: Least experienced team in the entire conference by far, which is normally a death sentence in tournament play. The defense is average. Poor road record and mediocre three-point shooting.

Notes: My darling every year and NO WAY I'm not throwing a dart after all the money they made us the last 2 years. Very 'Monmouth-y' where they are not the same team you watched all year. Going to win 2 games for sure, which makes them worth the value at +8000.

Strengths: The defense grades out as 3rd best in the conference by KenPom. One of the most experienced teams in the field. Defending champions, so the pedigree is there. Has legit interior size.

Weaknesses: Lost 7 of 8 coming in. 13-18 overall. The road record is atrocious. The offense is broken, with terrible shooting from three and from the field. Negative scoring margin. Worst cover rate in the conference.

Notes: Usually one of my favorites, but literally lost 7 of 8 coming in. They can definitely win a game or 2 if they get hot, but no way this group can string 3-4 games together. Should beat Tulane but that may be about it.

Strengths: Has a legit individual scorer who can keep them in games. One of the more experienced teams in the field. Decent free throw shooting.

Weaknesses: Dead last in the conference in both offensive and total rebounding by a mile. Can't rebound and can't shoot. The defense is poor and the advanced numbers paint a well below-average team.

Notes: Tulane sucks. Can't rebound (dead last in the conference in both ORB and TRB) and can't shoot. Memphis should handle this.

Strengths: Has two guys who can score and the experience is solid. Decent three-point shooting. Strong enough at home to show they have some fight.

Weaknesses: The defense is one of the worst in the field. Undersized. Lost 7 of 8 coming in. The advanced numbers say they're a below-average team. Poor road record.

Notes: Temple fucking sucks and they're coming in losing 7 of 8. FAU should handle this easily and move on.

Strengths: Best KenPom Net in the A10 by a wide margin. Best defense in the conference by adjusted efficiency. The three-point shooting is 2nd in all of Division I, which is an absurd number, and the overall shooting efficiency is elite. Four double-figure scorers, so no one guy has to carry. One of the most experienced teams in the country. Perfect 19-0 at home. Best cover rate in the conference.

Weaknesses: Lost 3 of their last 6 including getting run off the floor by Dayton. Playing like a 4 seed of late despite being the 1 seed. On the same side of the bracket as Dayton, George Washington, and George Mason. Free throw shooting is just okay.

Notes: St. Louis at +140 to win this conference is FUCKING RETARDED considering they just got run off the floor by Dayton and lost half of their final 6 games, not in pretty fashion. Maybe the reset helps, but there is ABSOLUTELY NO VALUE on St. Louis. They are the best team, but they are in terrible form.

Strengths: Won 12 of 13 coming in, which is the best form of anyone in the conference. Second best KenPom Net in the A10. The offense grades out well with solid shooting from three, from the field, and from the line. Strong road record. Won this tournament 2 of the last 3 years, so the pedigree is there. Sits on the easy side of the bracket avoiding St. Louis, Dayton, GW, and Mason, and really just has St. Joe's to worry about.

Weaknesses: Young team, which normally gives you pause in a tournament setting. The defense is middle of the pack. Below average cover rate. The one loss in the last 13 was to St. Louis. Doesn't do anything elite, just good everywhere.

Notes: VCU is the best team in this conference right now (form matters more than season-long metrics) and for some reason we get them at +180 compared to St. Louis at +140. +180 is short, so not super interested straight outside of a stab and futures parlays, but they are the clear pick.

Strengths: On a 6-game winning streak coming in. Third best defense in the conference by adjusted efficiency and the defensive PPG is elite. They can rebound, which gives them extra possessions and limits opponents. Strong cover rate and under rate. The grit and physicality is real, a style that travels well in tournament play.

Weaknesses: The three-point shooting is brutal, second worst in the entire conference. EFG is near the bottom too. The offense is limited and ranks 9th in the conference by adjusted efficiency. They can't score enough when the defense isn't suffocating, and tournament games can turn into shootouts where that matters.

Notes: Can board, play D, and has that Philly grit. Their issue will be 3-pointers. If they can get shots to drop and get hot, this team can be a problem for VCU. On VCU's side of the bracket.

Strengths: 24th most experienced team in the country, which is a massive edge in a multi-game tournament. The defense grades out as 3rd best in the conference by KenPom. Strong free throw shooting. Rolled off 6 straight before a loss to VCU to close the year, so the form is great. Already mopped St. Louis recently, which is the team they'd face in the semis on their side of the bracket.

Weaknesses: Worst rebounding team in the entire conference in both offensive and total boards. That's a legitimate disaster because it means zero second chances and easy extra possessions for opponents. The offense is middle of the pack. Undersized.

Notes: Throw out the metrics. They were not the same team a month ago. Coming in on a great run after a brutal mid-season stretch and they already mopped St. Louis who is the big dog they need to take down. +750 on DK is the BEST VALUE on the board. On St. Louis' side of the bracket, which means a potential semifinal matchup with the Billikens.

Strengths: Started 18-1, which shows the ceiling of this team. Third best defensive PPG in the conference. Solid experience and height rankings. Dominant at home at 17-2. Four guys who can score in double figures gives them balance.

Weaknesses: Dropped 6 of their last 9, which is the scary part. Poor road record at 4-6. The offense and defense are both middle of the pack by adjusted efficiency. Which team shows up? The juggernaut or the team that fell apart?

Notes: At 35:1 on DraftKings (compared to 22:1 on FanDuel) this is worth a stab. Conference tourneys tend to serve as a reset and knowing what they are capable of, I think they can make a run to the title... or they can lose Day 1. At 35:1, I'm in.

Strengths: Second best defensive PPG in the conference and the defense grades out well by KenPom. Solid three-point shooting and overall efficiency. Three guys who can score. Strong road record at 7-4.

Weaknesses: Free throw shooting is one of the WORST in the entire nation. Haven't won 3 games in a row since the first 4 games of the year. Not experienced enough and the cover rate is poor.

Notes: I like a lot of pieces of Davidson's game, but they are off my list. They can't do two things: shoot free throws (one of the worst in the nation) and win 3 games in a row (haven't done it since the first 4 games of the year). Since you need to string together wins and hit free throws to win a tournament, I am out.

Strengths: Has a nice scoring duo at the top. The defense grades out decently. Experienced roster. Decent three-point shooting. Won this tournament as a 6 seed in 2024, so the pedigree is there.

Weaknesses: The defensive PPG is the weakest of the middle tier. Below average cover rate. Poor road record. Games tend to go over, meaning their defense can get leaky in a shootout.

Notes: Won this tournament as a 6 seed in 2024, so they have pedigree. But this year's team doesn't have the same edge. Faces Rhode Island in the second round.

Strengths: Best defensive PPG in the entire conference. Best offensive rebounding in the conference. Experienced roster with three seniors who can score. Highest under rate in the A10 and solid cover rate. These games are ugly rock fights where anything can happen.

Weaknesses: Worst three-point shooting in the entire conference. The EFG is terrible. The offense is second worst among tournament teams. Essentially a break-even team by KenPom. Poor road record. The offense is brutal and the shooting is nonexistent.

Notes: Not interested. I think George Washington smacks them early. Best defense in the league but you can't score and you can't shoot, so it doesn't matter.

Strengths: The offensive efficiency is elite, 3rd best in the conference. Second best EFG in the league. Strong three-point shooting. They crash the boards and are the 25th most experienced roster in the country with good height. They take good shots and can score with anyone in this conference.

Weaknesses: The defense is below average and the defensive PPG confirms it. 3-7 on the road is rough. Below average cover rate. There are games where they just don't show up defensively.

Notes: The metrics darling of this conference. If they beat Fordham they face St. Louis right away, who is NOT in good form. GW will have the advantage of playing the day before without rust. If they can get some extra effort on the defensive end this team could be a problem. +2000 has a lot of value.

Strengths: 11th most experienced roster in the entire country, which is the kind of edge that matters when games get tight in March. Solid defensive PPG and the defense grades out well by KenPom. Four double-figure scorers gives them balance and options.

Weaknesses: Tiny at 319th in height. Can't shoot from three. The offense is below average. Poor cover rate and a losing road record. The size and shooting limitations cap their ceiling.

Notes: Experienced but way too small and can't shoot. Not a futures play.

Strengths: Third best three-point shooting in the conference. Experienced roster. Won this tourney as a 6 seed in 2022, so the pedigree exists somewhere.

Weaknesses: The defense is poor. 5-12 in conference play. Terrible road record. Undersized. This is not a good basketball team.

Notes: The 2022 pedigree is nice but this team is not that team. 5-12 in conference play tells the story.

Strengths: Solid offensive rebounding. Three double-figure scorers who give them some balance.

Weaknesses: 1-13 on the road. The defense is poor. Can't shoot from three. Terrible EFG. Negative scoring margin. 5-12 in conference. Brutal across the board.

Notes: 1-13 on the road. Not going anywhere.

Strengths: Second best three-point shooting in the conference. Three double-figure scorers who can all shoot. High over rate means their games are shootouts where anything can happen.

Weaknesses: Tiny. 4-14 in conference. Worst defense in the A10 by adjusted efficiency. Worst cover rate in the conference. Terrible road record.

Notes: 4-14 in conference is ugly, but the three-point shooting and three guys who can score means they can pop one upset. Not a serious futures play but could give someone a scare in the first round.

Strengths: Experienced roster with balanced scoring across four guys. That's about it.

Weaknesses: Worst defense in the conference by adjusted efficiency. 3-14 in conference. 1-9 on the road. Negative 10 scoring margin. Poor free throw shooting. Poor three-point shooting. Poor cover rate. Everything is bad.

Notes: 3-14 in conference and 1-9 on the road says this is a one-and-done.

Strengths: Best defense in the conference by a wide margin, and it's not close. The rebounding is elite with a legit monster in the middle who changes the game on both ends. Won 10 of their final 13, so the form is there. High under rate means they grind you into the dirt and make you play their game. Bye to the semis.

Weaknesses: The offense is limited, ranking 6th in the conference. The three-point shooting is mediocre, the EFG is below average, and the free throw shooting is poor. Not experienced. If they can't grind you, they don't have a Plan B. When the defense has an off night, the offense can't bail them out.

Notes: Coming in hotter than Hawaii (10 of 13 vs 4 of 7) but the short price at +155 offers no value. Defense and rebounding will carry them, but the offense is a question mark.

Strengths: Best KenPom Net in the conference. 26th tallest team nationally, so they physically bully people in a small conference. Very experienced with 4 seniors, meaning they've seen every type of game. Strong at home. Bye to the semis.

Weaknesses: Worst cover rate in the entire conference, which is a massive red flag. Started 18-5 then went 4-3 to close, so the form is going the wrong direction. The three-point shooting is mediocre. The late fade combined with the worst cover rate makes you question if this team can be trusted in a tournament setting.

Notes: No value at +230. The size and experience are real, but the late-season fade and cover rate make this a pass.

Strengths: Best cover rate in the entire conference despite the ugly record, meaning they've been competitive against the number all year. Can score, putting up over 83 a game. Decent three-point shooting. Has some experience with three seniors. Won this tourney as a 4 seed in 2022, so the pedigree exists.

Weaknesses: One of the smallest teams in the entire country. The defense is second worst in the conference, giving up almost 83 a game. Negative KenPom Net. Not experienced enough. Poor road record. Bad defensively and very small.

Notes: Both Fullerton and CSUN suck from the line, are bad defensively, average from three, and small as fuck. But CSUN is a rebounding monster while Fullerton has a little more experience and better cover rate. Sprinkle territory.

Strengths: Best rebounding team in the conference in both offensive and total boards despite being tiny, which is genuinely impressive. Four seniors who can all score gives them experience and balance. The rebounding edge is real and can create extra possessions against anyone.

Weaknesses: Worst free throw shooting in the conference, which is a tournament killer when games get tight. The defense is bad, giving up almost 80 a game. Below average cover rate. The FT shooting and defense will kill them eventually.

Notes: Same tier as Fullerton. Rebounding edge is real but the FT shooting and defense will kill them eventually. At +1000 there's some value if they catch a cold-shooting opponent early.

Strengths: Defending Big West champs, so the pedigree and confidence are there. Hottest team in the conference winning 6 of their last 7. Third best KenPom Net in the conference. Solid defense with the 3rd best defensive PPG. 52nd tallest nationally gives them a physical edge. Good three-point shooting and EFG. Strong road record at 8-5. High under rate means their games stay tight.

Weaknesses: Not experienced, which is normally a concern in tournament play. The offensive rebounding is below average compared to the top of the conference. The rebounding gap against UCI and Hawaii could be the difference in a semifinal matchup.

Notes: Defending champs, hot form, good size. PRIMED for a futures bet at +700. One of the mid-tier pair that should be targeted.

Strengths: The offense is decent. Solid three-point shooting and free throw shooting. Above average cover rate. Strong at home.

Weaknesses: Tiny at 299th in height. Not experienced enough. The defense is middling. Positive but unremarkable KenPom Net. Poor road record. Nothing about this team excites me or jumps off the page.

Notes: Just kinda fine everywhere. Nothing excites me. Drawing dead.

Strengths: Best offense in the entire conference by KenPom. Best three-point shooting, best EFG, and best free throw shooting in the Big West, meaning they are the most efficient scoring team in the league from everywhere on the floor. Four double-figure scorers gives them balance and multiple guys who can take over. Good size. Now healthy with their full squad, which changes everything. Won this tournament in 2021 and 2023, so the pedigree is elite.

Weaknesses: The defense is the weak link, ranking 5th in the conference. Poor road record. Not super experienced. If the shots aren't falling and the defense can't hold, they're in trouble.

Notes: BEST VALUE on the board now that they are healthy and have their full squad. The shooting metrics are the best in the conference across the board. Tournament pedigree with two titles in the last 5 years. At +750 this is the mid-tier sniper play.

Strengths: Has a legit 20-point scorer who can take over a game on his own. Three guys who can fill it up. Good free throw shooting. Some size at 126th tallest nationally.

Weaknesses: One of the youngest teams in the entire country. Worst defense in the conference by a mile, giving up 85 a game, almost 3 more than anyone else. Negative KenPom Net. Negative scoring margin. Terrible road record. The combo of insanely young guys who play horrific defense is disastrous in tournament play.

Notes: Deadly combo of insanely young guys who play horrific defense, which is disastrous in tournament play. Drawing dead.

Strengths: Defending Big East tourney champs playing in their building at MSG. Outright regular-season champs at 18-2 in conference. The defense is elite by adjusted efficiency. Best offensive rebounding in the Big East, which creates second chances and suffocates opponents. 9-1 on the road is insane for a Big East team. Strong cover rate. High under rate means they grind you. Very experienced. Rick Pitino coaching in the Garden gives them a massive home-court and coaching edge on everyone except UConn.

Weaknesses: The three-point shooting is 6th in the conference and the EFG is 8th. Not an elite shooting team. Can be undisciplined at times and go full retard on offense. Got beat the shit out of by UConn earlier this year. The offense relies more on physicality and grinding than pure shooting. Free throw shooting is mediocre.

Notes: St. John's in the Garden should be the favorite. I will be at most of these games courtside willing this home. The Butler/Providence winner won't scare them. The real test is if Creighton's efficiency and shooting catch them on an undisciplined night. Should see UConn in the final.

Strengths: Best KenPom Net in the Big East by a wide margin. Best EFG in the league. Second best three-point shooting. Elite defense by adjusted efficiency. Five double-figure scorers. 29th tallest and 22nd most experienced team in the country. One of the best coaches in the country who travels well to the Garden. Beat the shit out of St. John's earlier this year.

Weaknesses: Second worst cover rate in the entire Big East, which is a massive red flag for a team this talented. Something is off this year. They are tall, experienced, and shoot a high percentage from three, but they aren't scary like they have been. The coach has been whipping this team all year begging them to bring that dawg out, but it hasn't been working. Got upset by Marquette in the regular-season finale.

Notes: UConn at -115 as the favorite is wrong. It should be +200. Everyone is going to point back to the St. John's blowout, but that was a complete outlier game (and I think a good loss for the Johnnies in retrospect because they will be PISSED). They are a great all-around team, but I don't know if they have that dawg in them this year. Don't be shocked if Marquette or Xavier gets hot and knocks them off in their first game.

Strengths: Best cover rate in the entire Big East. Strong KenPom Net. The offense grades out well with solid three-point shooting. Strong road record at 9-3. Won 7 of their last 9. Has exceeded expectations in the coach's first year. Balanced four-headed scoring attack. Does all the little shit right and makes you make mistakes.

Weaknesses: The 2 losses in the last 9 were to UConn and St. John's by a combined 42 points. They are safe but don't have what it takes against the top two when it matters. The defense is just okay. Not tall enough. Not enough firepower to hang in a shootout with the top dogs.

Notes: Exactly what Villanova always is. Not sexy, but a live dog vs UConn or the Johnnies who have moments where they lose discipline. Worth respecting but not betting on to win the whole thing.

Strengths: Best defensive PPG in the entire Big East. The defense by adjusted efficiency is basically tied with UConn for the best in the league. 15th most experienced team in the country. Strong cover rate. High under rate means every game is a rock fight. First-round bye, plays Creighton in the quarters.

Weaknesses: 341st in height, which is going to be a MASSIVE problem in this tournament. Worst three-point shooting in the Big East. Worst EFG in the Big East. Second lowest scoring team in the conference. The offense has a painfully low ceiling. Can't shoot, can't score, can't get big.

Notes: The defense is elite but 341st in height is going to be a problem against St. John's who are bigger and better across the board. No path.

Strengths: Solid three-point shooting. Second best free throw shooting in the conference, so they close games at the line. Good EFG. Decent size at 62nd tallest. Can sling it from deep and don't miss free throws. Plays Seton Hall first, which is a favorable matchup for a shooting team.

Weaknesses: Worst cover rate in the entire conference. Worst offensive rebounding in the Big East, meaning zero second chances. 15-16 overall. Terrible road record. The defense is bottom half. They just don't have that perennial Creighton firepower this year.

Notes: IF they get by Seton Hall, they are sneaky to upset St. John's because of their fundamentals, efficiency, and shooting against a Johnnies team that can go full retard on offense sometimes. The matchup of Creighton's discipline vs St. John's physicality is interesting. But envisioning a deep run is hard.

Strengths: Second best cover rate in the Big East. Solid defense by adjusted efficiency and 3rd best defensive PPG in the conference. High under rate. Four double-figure scorers, all experienced. These games are ugly rock fights where anything can happen.

Weaknesses: The offense is second worst in the Big East by adjusted efficiency. Scoring is limited. Can't shoot from three. Poor road record. Not enough firepower to keep up with the top teams.

Notes: Georgetown is a lame duck coming in so DePaul should outhustle them in the opener. After that they'd face Villanova, which is a tough draw. Not going anywhere but will cover.

Strengths: Just knocked off UConn in their final game. Played St. John's to the wire. Three double-figure scorers. High under rate means games stay close and anything can happen.

Weaknesses: 12-19 overall. 2-10 on the road. One of the youngest teams in the conference. Can't shoot from three. Worst free throw shooting in the entire Big East, which kills you in close tournament games. Poor cover rate. Negative scoring margin. The record is ugly and the shooting numbers are a mess.

Notes: This is a team I have been betting a lot late and they just proved they can beat UConn. Gets Xavier first and that is a dangerous spot since Xavier can light it up. The winner of Marquette/Xavier is a dark horse to make a run on UConn's side. Will sprinkle on both.

Strengths: Has a strong scoring duo that can carry them. Solid offensive rebounding and total rebounding. Decent size and experience. Above average cover rate.

Weaknesses: The defense is suspect. Poor three-point shooting. Terrible road record. Has been in turmoil and dealt with injuries.

Notes: Providence vs Butler is an interesting opening round matchup but the winner will get smacked by St. John's. Butler should steal this game vs Providence but this can go either way. Neither are going anywhere.

Strengths: 3rd best offense in the Big East by adjusted efficiency. Highest scoring team in the entire conference at almost 87 a game. Three guys who can go off. Good free throw shooting. Solid three-point shooting. Second highest over rate in the conference means every game is a shootout. Strong cover rate.

Weaknesses: Worst defense in the entire Big East by adjusted efficiency. Worst defensive PPG in the conference by a mile. Terrible road record. Every Providence game is a shootout and the defense can't stop anyone.

Notes: The highest-scoring team in the league but also allows the most points. Interesting team that will give you a fun watch but not going anywhere in this bracket. The winner of the Butler matchup gets St. John's and that's the end of the road.

Strengths: Best three-point shooting in the entire Big East. 20th tallest team in the country. 43rd in experience. Highest over rate in the conference means every game is a track meet. Can absolutely light it up from deep. The size and experience are real.

Weaknesses: Worst defense in the Big East by adjusted efficiency. Worst defensive PPG. 1-10 on the road. Negative scoring margin. The defense is atrocious. Every game is a track meet and they need the shots to fall or they're cooked.

Notes: Led the Big East in three-point shooting but is the worst defense in the league. If the shots are falling they can beat anyone for one game. The Marquette/Xavier winner is a dark horse. Will sprinkle.

Strengths: Some individual pieces with size. 54th tallest nationally.

Weaknesses: Lost their best player. Poor cover rate. Terrible road record. The defense is below average. Can't shoot from three. This team has quit.

Notes: Georgetown is a lame duck. Lost their best player. If they win 1 game they are lucky. DePaul should outhustle them in the opener because Georgetown quits.

Strengths: Best KenPom Net in the WAC by over 5 points, meaning they're the most efficient team in the conference and it's not close. Best defense in the league. Best shooting efficiency. Four balanced double-figure scorers means no single-player dependency, which is huge in a tournament where one guy can have an off night. Perfect 15-0 at home. Cracker factor for days. Bye to the semis.

Weaknesses: 6-7 on the road is concerning for a team this talented. Not experienced. Below average cover rate. The three-point shooting is mediocre. Has never won the WAC tournament championship, including losing to GCU in last year's final. The lack of tournament pedigree is real.

Notes: No value at -110. Best team in the conference by the numbers but the road record and the lack of tournament pedigree give me pause.

Strengths: Best rebounding team in the WAC in both offensive and total boards, which creates second chances and suffocates opponents. Has a nuclear scorer averaging over 22 a game who gets buckets without a conscience. Won 13 of their final 15. Perfect 15-0 at home. Solid defense. Good cover rate. High under rate means they grind you. Two oak trees in the frontcourt anchor the rebounding. Bye to the semis.

Weaknesses: Very small outside the bigs. The EFG is second worst in the conference. The three-point shooting is mediocre. Not experienced. Split road record. Completely dependent on one scorer, and if he goes cold, this team can't generate offense from anywhere else.

Notes: No value at +170. Fun team with bigs and a killer, but if they play Utah Valley in the final you basically get the same odds anyway. Not worth betting straight.

Strengths: Best three-point shooting in the entire conference. Best cover rate in the WAC, meaning they've been competitive against the number all year. 46th tallest nationally gives them a real physical edge. Four double-figure scorers. Tall guys who get buckets and are pretty good at everything.

Weaknesses: The defense is below average. Negative KenPom Net. Worst offensive rebounding among the top 5 seeds, which means no second chances. Poor road record. Not experienced. Went 1-2 against Cal Baptist and Utah Valley. Rebounding is the thing that worries me most.

Notes: A ton of tall guys who get buckets and are pretty good at everything except rebounding, which is the thing that worries me. Would have to beat both Cal Baptist and Utah Valley. Interesting but I don't think they get there.

Strengths: Second best defensive PPG in the WAC. The defense grades out well by adjusted efficiency. Solid rebounding. Highest under rate in the conference means every game is a rock fight. Two experienced seniors who can score.

Weaknesses: Worst three-point shooting in the entire conference at under 30%. The offense is second worst by adjusted efficiency. Terrible EFG. Not experienced and undersized. The offense and shooting are a disaster. Can grind a game into dust but can't score when it matters.

Notes: Good defensively but under 30% from three. Can grind a game into dust but can't score when it matters.

Strengths: Second best three-point shooting in the conference. Can score at 76+ a game. 28th tallest team in the country, which is a massive physical advantage. Has a freshman scorer and an experienced big who can play.

Weaknesses: Worst defense in the entire conference. Terrible adjusted defensive efficiency. The worst KenPom Net in the WAC. 2-15 on the road. 10-21 overall. Very inexperienced. Can't play defense and can't win games despite being able to score.

Notes: Can score and shoot but can't play D. 2-15 on the road tells you everything. Not a serious play.

Strengths: Has a senior scorer who can get his own bucket. Decent defensive PPG. More experience than most of the bottom of the field.

Weaknesses: Negative KenPom Net by a wide margin. Terrible road record. Worst offense in the entire conference by adjusted efficiency. Undersized. Poor three-point shooting. Below average cover rate.

Notes: No interest. First-round fodder for Tarleton.

Strengths: Has one of the highest individual scorers at any level, averaging 23.6 a game. That kind of scoring can win you a game by himself at this level. Best free throw shooting in the conference. Above average cover rate. Now getting healthy for the first time all season after everyone on the roster missed 10+ games, meaning this is not the same team the record suggests.

Weaknesses: One of the smallest teams in the entire country. Negative KenPom Net. The defense is mediocre. Terrible road record. Poor three-point shooting. Not experienced enough. Has to play the extra game as the 7 seed.

Notes: My darling. I bet Tarleton every single tournament in every single sport since they got to D1 because there is something about this school as giant killers. Throw their stats out the window since pretty much everyone was injured. Their scorer at 23.6 PPG can win a game by himself. Sucks they have to play the extra game, but sprinkle on the Texans. Love them Day 1 for sure.

Strengths: Best KenPom Net in the conference by nearly 3 points. Best offense in the league by adjusted efficiency. Elite shooting efficiency. 20th most experienced roster in the country, meaning they've seen everything. Strong at home at 14-1. Double-bye.

Weaknesses: Worst cover rate among the top 5 teams, which means they've been underperforming expectations all year despite the record. Poor free throw shooting. Not tall. The road record is mediocre at 7-5. High over rate means games tend to be shootouts. The cover rate is the real red flag for a team this talented.

Notes: I love Utah State but this conference is WAY too wide open to take +190. See ya in the Big Tourney where I will probably bet you to the Sweet 16, but there is zero value here.

Strengths: Tied for the best defense in the entire conference by adjusted efficiency. Strong KenPom Net. Solid three-point shooting and free throw shooting. Experienced roster. Dominant at home at 14-2. Best road in the bracket of the big guys. Balanced with multiple guys who can score. Double-bye.

Weaknesses: The road record is an even .500. Below average offensive rebounding. No single dominant scorer, which means no one can take over a game when things get tight. Balanced but no go-to guy in crunch time.

Notes: Basically a Grand Canyon clone except more consistent and stable. Best road in the bracket. It wouldn't be a Mountain Best tournament without putting a future on my boys the Aztecs.

Strengths: Strong KenPom Net. Second best defensive PPG in the conference. Can score and shoot from three. Solid road record. Strong at home. Double-bye.

Weaknesses: One of the least experienced teams in the entire conference at 310th nationally. Highest over rate in the conference means every game is a shootout. Limping in losing 3 of their last 4. Poor free throw shooting. The youth and late-season fade are real concerns.

Notes: Same odds as GC but completely different trajectories. New Mexico is limping in losing 3 of 4. Can win but doesn't have my attention at these odds.

Strengths: Tied for the best defense in the entire conference by adjusted efficiency. Best defensive PPG in the Mountain West. 13th most experienced and 17th tallest team in the entire country. That's a squad of DAWGS who will get in your ass on defense. Solid cover rate. High under rate means they grind you. Double-bye.

Weaknesses: Worst three-point shooting among the top 10 teams. The offense is the lowest among the top 5 by adjusted efficiency. Can't shoot from deep. The road record is just okay. If the whistles are tight this team could get in foul trouble because they play so physical.

Notes: My favorite team in this conference all year. I love the chip on their shoulder. As long as the whistles aren't too tight, GC is my leader in the clubhouse. +550 is amazing value for the 13th most experienced, 17th tallest team in the country with the best defense in the conference.

Strengths: Second best three-point shooting in the conference. Good free throw shooting. Solid offensive rebounding. The offense grades out well. Strong at home at 15-2. Above average cover rate. Strong tournament history in the Mountain West.

Weaknesses: The defense is middle of the pack. 4-8 on the road is rough. Undersized. The defensive PPG isn't great.

Notes: Can rain from three, board, and make FTs. +1800 is always a dart worth throwing with their shooting and history.

Strengths: Second best offense in the conference by adjusted efficiency. 15th tallest team in the country, which is a real physical edge. Best free throw shooting in the entire conference. Coming in winning 5 straight. Experienced roster. Strong cover rate. Four guys who can score.

Weaknesses: The defense is decent but not elite. Defensive PPG is middle of the pack. Three-point shooting is average. The road record is okay but not great.

Notes: On fire coming in. 15th tallest in the country. +650 is fair but the hot streak makes them interesting. Same trajectory as GC but not getting the same attention.

Strengths: Best three-point shooting in the entire conference. Best EFG in the conference. Best cover rate in the conference, meaning they've been beating the number all year. Third best offense by adjusted efficiency. Experienced roster. Defending champs. Four guys who can score.

Weaknesses: Worst rebounding in the entire conference. The defense is the worst among the top 7. Defensive PPG is mediocre. A very different team than last year's champions.

Notes: Best shooting team in the conference but worst rebounding and suspect defense. Defending champs with the best cover rate, but can't crash the glass.

Strengths: Has a certified bucket averaging over 20 a game. Playing at HOME at Thomas & Mack, which always makes them viable. Beat Utah State, Nevada, and Boise late. Nailbiter loss to SDST. The offense grades out well. Can shoot from three. Scores 80 a game. Coming in hot with real upside.

Weaknesses: The defense gives up almost 79 a game. 16-15 overall. Not experienced enough. Poor free throw shooting. The defense is the weak link by a mile.

Notes: The home court always makes them viable. The last 3 games show real upside and they're coming in hot. +5000 has value.

Strengths: Coming in winning 5 of 6. The offense grades out decently. Solid defensive PPG. Good offensive rebounding and total rebounding. Strong at home at 14-4. Four guys who can score.

Weaknesses: 3-9 on the road is atrocious. Not experienced. Undersized. Below average cover rate. Poor three-point shooting.

Notes: +8000 seems high; they should be around 3500-4000 where UNLV is. Won't win it, but the hot streak and value make a sprinkle worthwhile.

Strengths: Tied for the best cover rate in the conference. Has a senior scorer who can go off. Solid defensive PPG and adjusted defensive efficiency.

Weaknesses: The offense is below average. Can't score enough. Poor three-point shooting. 2-10 on the road. Not experienced enough.

Notes: Not interested. The cover rate is interesting but 2-10 on the road is disqualifying.

Strengths: Has a guy who can fill it up at 20+ a game. Decent three-point shooting.

Weaknesses: Terrible KenPom Net. One of the worst defenses in the conference. 1-12 on the road. Undersized. Very inexperienced. Can't stop anyone.

Notes: Not interested. 1-12 on the road. Drawing dead.

Strengths: Nothing.

Weaknesses: 0-12 on the road. 3-28 overall. Worst KenPom Net in the conference by a country mile. Can't score. Poor free throw shooting. One of the least experienced teams in the country. Worst cover rate. The worst team in the conference and one of the worst in the country.

Notes: 0-12 on the road and 3-28 overall. Absolutely drawing dead.

Strengths: Leads the MEAC in literally every meaningful category: defensive PPG, three-point shooting, EFG, free throw shooting, offensive rebounding, and total rebounding. The 73.1% cover rate is absurd and the best in the conference by 17+ points. Three double-figure scorers with size and youth. Only team with a bye while everyone else has to grind through extra games. Won this tournament in 2023 and 2024. Plus-9.6 scoring margin in a conference where nobody else is close.

Weaknesses: Tiny at 335th in height. Not super experienced. The KenPom Net is -3.09, meaning they are still slightly below average nationally. 7-6 on the road. The team itself is not amazing in a national context, they're just miles better than everyone else in this conference.

Notes: Just slam Howard with Florida in a max bet futures parlay and use Howard in all your futures parlays. The gap between Howard and the rest of this conference is not even a gap, it's a canyon. 73.1% cover rate in a conference where the next-best KenPom Net is 11 points worse. This is a formality.

Strengths: Three experienced seniors who can score. Above average cover rate for this conference.

Weaknesses: The KenPom Net is -20.82, which is horrific. The defense gives up almost 79 a game. One of the smallest teams in the country. The road record is poor. The gap to Howard is enormous.

Notes: Not a real threat. Crime scene.

Strengths: Has a sophomore scorer who can get buckets. Below average cover rate but at least competitive.

Weaknesses: The KenPom Net is -20.07. The defense is terrible. One of the smallest teams in the entire country. 4-12 on the road. The gap to Howard is enormous.

Notes: Not a real threat. Crime scene.

Strengths: Best of the rest. Most experienced team in the conference outside of Howard. Can shoot from three (2nd best in the MEAC). Three senior scorers. Won this tournament 3 of the last 5 years, so the pedigree is undeniable.

Weaknesses: The KenPom Net is -14.25, which is 11 points worse than Howard. The defense is poor. Terrible free throw shooting. Bad road record. Undersized. The talent gap to Howard is massive this year despite the pedigree.

Notes: The tournament pedigree is real (3 of last 5 champs) but the talent gap to Howard is massive this year. Would need Howard to have a total meltdown. Not betting it.

Strengths: Nothing meaningful.

Weaknesses: 9-21 overall. 3-16 on the road. KenPom Net is -25.2. Gives up almost 80 a game. Negative 13.1 scoring margin. One of the least experienced teams in the country.

Notes: Fucking disaster.

Strengths: Nothing meaningful.

Weaknesses: 8-22 overall. 2-18 on the road. KenPom Net is -19.6. Shooting 29.1% from three. Very inexperienced.

Notes: Fucking disaster.

Strengths: Nothing meaningful.

Weaknesses: 7-21 overall. 2-14 on the road. Worst KenPom Net in the entire MEAC at -27.88. Worst offense in the conference. Shooting 28.9% from three. 42.5% EFG. Worst cover rate in the conference.

Notes: Fucking disaster.

Strengths: 31-0. The only undefeated team in Division I. 16-0 at home, 14-0 on the road. Best EFG in the MAC. Best cover rate in the conference at 67.9%. Five double-figure scorers means the offense is incredibly balanced with no single-player dependency. Experienced roster. Battle-tested all year getting every team's best shot, meaning they've already played pressure games for weeks. High over rate means they score in bunches.

Weaknesses: The offensive rebounding is the lowest among top seeds and second worst in the entire conference, meaning zero second chances. The defense is not elite. Not tall. The KenPom Net is notably lower than Akron's (+9.16 vs +13.2). Have been playing playoff games for weeks chasing the perfect season and may be gassed.

Notes: I know this seems like the public donkey bet, but EVERYONE THINKS THIS TEAM IS FAKE and no one respects them. Every single sharp is on Akron and NO ONE is on Miami OH. I think they are fairly equal, but the battles this team has been through make them tournament-ready. If you are giving me +230 with an undefeated team, I am taking it.

Strengths: Best KenPom Net in the MAC by 4 points. Best three-point shooting, best free throw shooting, and best adjusted offensive efficiency in the conference. Four senior scorers with dynasty pedigree, having won this tournament 3 of the last 4 years. Perfect 15-0 at home. Strong rebounding. The metrics say they're the best team in the conference and the pedigree is undeniable.

Weaknesses: 351st in height is TINY and a real concern. 9-3 on the road vs Miami's perfect 14-0. Lower cover rate than Miami (55.2% vs 67.9%). Not as experienced as you'd expect. The defense is not elite.

Notes: Probably the better team by the metrics, but -145 with a team ranked 351st in height against an undefeated squad getting +230 is not where I want to be. The world wants Akron/Miami OH in the final and that's what the world will get.

Strengths: Best rebounding team in the entire conference in both offensive and total boards. Can score at almost 86 a game. Solid three-point shooting. Four guys who can score with experience and size. Strong at home at 14-3.

Weaknesses: Worst defensive PPG among the top 8 seeds at 80 a game. Worst cover rate in the entire conference, meaning they've been wildly inconsistent against the spread all year. Tiny. The defense is poor by adjusted efficiency. The KenPom Net drops massively from the top 2.

Notes: Rebounding machine who can get up buckets, so they are a threat. But worst cover rate in the conference and worst DPPG among the top 8 means they're inconsistent. A live mid-range sniper if the boards and shots fall.

Strengths: Second best offense in the MAC by adjusted efficiency. Can score over 80 a game. Solid three-point and free throw shooting. Above average cover rate. Balanced scoring with four guys in double figures. High under rate means games stay close.

Weaknesses: The defense is mediocre. Tiny at 304th in height. Not experienced. 5-9 on the road is poor. The gap to the top 2 is enormous by KenPom.

Notes: Fine but not exciting. Decent shooting and balanced scoring. Definitely live but this is a 2-horse race.

Strengths: Second best defensive PPG in the entire MAC. 66th tallest nationally, which is a real physical advantage in a conference where most teams are tiny. Second best defense by adjusted efficiency. Four guys who can score with size. High under rate means games are rock fights where anything can happen.

Weaknesses: The KenPom Net is barely positive. Below average cover rate. .500 in conference play. The offense isn't dynamic enough. The three-point shooting is average.

Notes: Definitely live with the size and defense, but like Toledo this is a tier below the top 2. Worth a sprinkle at best.

Strengths: One of the most experienced teams in the conference. Three double-figure scorers who have been through wars.

Weaknesses: Worst three-point shooting in the entire conference at 29.6%. The defense is poor. Deeply negative KenPom Net. Bad road record. Undersized. Poor cover rate. Can't shoot and can't defend.

Notes: Can't shoot and can't defend. Not a real threat.

Strengths: Third best three-point shooting in the conference. Three guys who can light it up from deep. Solid cover rate. Decent road record at 8-6.

Weaknesses: One of the worst defenses in the MAC by adjusted efficiency. Negative KenPom Net. Losing record at home, which is bizarre. Tiny. High over rate means every game is a shootout. Can shoot but can't stop anyone.

Notes: Can shoot but can't stop anyone. Live as a one-game upset if the 3s are falling, but nothing beyond that.

Strengths: Four double-figure scorers. One of the most experienced teams in the field. Strong offensive rebounding and total rebounding. Decent three-point shooting.

Weaknesses: 2-8 on the road is atrocious. Worst free throw shooting in the entire conference, which kills you in close tournament games. Second worst cover rate. The defense is poor. Negative KenPom Net.

Notes: Experienced but 2-8 on the road and worst FT% in the conference. Not going anywhere.

Strengths: Best KenPom Net in the Ivy by nearly 10 points. Best offense in the conference by adjusted efficiency. 40.5% from three is elite at any level. Strong EFG. Four double-figure scorers. Won this tournament 3 of the last 4 years, so the pedigree is undeniable. Strong road record at 9-3. The metrics say this team should steamroll everyone.

Weaknesses: Below average cover rate. The defense is second worst in the field by adjusted efficiency. Just lost to Cornell 2 weeks ago. This tournament is at Cornell, meaning they open against the team that just beat them on that same team's home floor. That's a brutal draw for a favorite.

Notes: Yale at -125 is maniacal. They are the best team but they just lost to Cornell and now have to open against Cornell AT CORNELL. I am betting the field. Unit on Harvard, Penn, and Cornell and fading Yale.

Strengths: Best defense in the Ivy League by a wide margin, both by PPG and adjusted efficiency. Best free throw shooting in the conference. Experienced roster. Four double-figure scorers. High under rate means they grind you and keep games close. Strong road record at 9-6. The defensive identity is built for tournament play where one stop can change a game.

Weaknesses: Small at 298th in height. The offense is limited, ranking 3rd in the conference. Lowest scoring team in the field. Below average three-point shooting. Worst offensive rebounding in the conference. If the defense doesn't suffocate the opponent, the offense doesn't have enough firepower to win a shootout.

Notes: Harvard has a lockdown D that can stifle Yale's offense. The FT shooting and defensive identity make them a real threat in a 2-game tournament. At +430 in a 4-team field, there's value.

Strengths: Best cover rate in the entire Ivy League at 69.2%. Best rebounding in the conference in both offensive and total boards. Second best three-point shooting. Highest under rate in the field means they control tempo and keep games on their terms. Strong at home at 12-2. Coming in hot. Has size at 113th nationally.

Weaknesses: Slightly negative KenPom Net. Worst free throw shooting in the tournament field, which kills you in close games. 4-8 on the road is ugly. Not experienced. The defense is middle of the pack.

Notes: Penn is hot and has the best cover rate and rebounding in the league. Can shoot from three. At +600 in a 4-team field, worth a unit.

Strengths: HOME GAME. Just beat Yale 2 weeks ago. Second best offense in the Ivy by adjusted efficiency. Highest scoring team in the conference by a mile at 88 a game. Strong three-point shooting. Good EFG. Three seniors who can fill it up with nothing to lose.

Weaknesses: Worst defense in the Ivy League by a country mile, giving up 83 a game. Worst adjusted defensive efficiency. One of the tiniest teams in the entire country at 358th in height. Essentially break-even KenPom Net. Every game is a shootout. If the shots don't fall, the defense can't save them.

Notes: This is a home game for Cornell and they just beat Yale. Three seniors with nothing to lose. At +330 with the home court and recent head-to-head, this is the most interesting play. Worth a unit.

Strengths: Reigning national champions. Best KenPom Net in the SEC by nearly 9 points. Top-10 offense AND top-5 defense nationally. 14th tallest team in the country. Five double-figure scorers. 16.0 offensive rebounds per game is absurd and will destroy anyone who can't match their physicality inside. Best total rebounding in the SEC. High under rate means they control tempo and grind you. Strong road record. Double-bye. Defending tourney champs who know how to win in Nashville.

Weaknesses: Worst three-point shooting in the entire SEC. Free throw shooting is bottom third. If a team can somehow keep them off the glass, force them into a perimeter-heavy game, and hit threes, there is a crack. But nobody in this conference has the size to do it consistently.

Notes: Can't bet them straight at -180, that's nuts. BUT they should be -180, so we will bet them in almost every conference parlay we put out. This team is going to bully people on the glass. If you can't bang with them down low, you are dead. Florida is going to win the SEC.

Strengths: Best offense in the SEC by adjusted efficiency. Highest-scoring team in the conference at 92 a game. Strong EFG and free throw shooting. Four double-figure scorers. Won 9 of their last 10 to climb the standings. Double-bye. Experienced roster.

Weaknesses: Worst defensive PPG among top-8 seeds in the SEC. Every game is a shootout with a high over rate. Below average cover rate. Got blown out by 23 at Florida. The defense simply cannot stop anyone, and against a team like Florida that can grind AND score, Alabama is cooked.

Notes: Dangerous as hell offensively but the defense is a liability. On the bottom half of the bracket away from Florida until a potential final. Could outscore their way to Sunday, but I'm not betting on a team that allows 83.6 PPG to win a tournament.

Strengths: The SEC Player of the Year is confirmed available after resting a nagging ankle. Projected No. 1 overall pick who scored 49 in a double-OT game vs Bama. Best three-point shooting in the entire SEC. Best cover rate in the entire SEC at 67.7%. Strong adjusted offensive efficiency. The team won at Mizzou WITHOUT their star, proving the supporting cast can hold. 36th tallest nationally. Double-bye. Away from Florida in the bracket, which is massive.

Weaknesses: The defense is middle of the pack. Defensive PPG is mediocre. Split road record at 5-5. Young roster. The star's ankle is the elephant in the room. 'Available' and '100%' are two different things. If he's at 80%, this team's ceiling drops. High over rate tells you the defense is shaky.

Notes: The team I think could win this thing. Away from Florida in the bracket, which is massive. Their star is confirmed playing. We gotta stab the future even though I would like higher odds. If he's right, this team can beat anyone in the country.

Strengths: 17th most experienced roster in the country. Strong KenPom Net. The offense grades out well. Best free throw shooting in the SEC. Four experienced scorers. Started the season 16-0. Double-bye.

Weaknesses: One of the smallest teams in the SEC. The defense is just okay. On Florida's side of the bracket, meaning they likely get Florida in the semis. Florida will absolutely bully them on the glass. They leveled out hard after the 16-0 start. The size mismatch is just too much.

Notes: Has a shot but I honestly think they get mauled by Florida. The size mismatch is just too much. Vanderbilt doesn't have the frontcourt to compete with Florida's 16.0 ORB per game. Interesting team, wrong side of the bracket.

Strengths: Best defensive PPG in the entire SEC. Second best defense by adjusted efficiency. Second best offensive rebounding in the conference behind only Florida. 39th tallest nationally. Has a strong scoring duo.

Weaknesses: Free throw shooting is second worst in the SEC, which is a tournament killer. The offense is good but not elite. Below average cover rate. Split road record. Just missed a double bye after losing to Vandy. On Florida's side of the bracket.

Notes: Has no chance vs Florida. The defense is legit but the free-throw shooting is a disaster and they just aren't built to outscore Florida when the Gators inevitably dominate the boards. Not interested.

Strengths: 8th most experienced roster in the country. Second best cover rate in the SEC. Solid three-point shooting and EFG. Highest over rate in the conference means their games are shootouts. Experienced, balanced scoring. Strong at home.

Weaknesses: The defense is middle of the pack. Very small. The high over rate tells you the defense is leaky even though the offense can keep pace. Not tall enough to hang with the top dogs physically.

Notes: Falls into the 'yeah I can see them making a run, but no I won't bet on it' category. Experienced and they cover a lot, but the size and defense aren't good enough to win four games in Nashville.

Strengths: 4th best offense in the SEC by adjusted efficiency. Scores 90 a game. Solid offensive rebounding. Four double-figure scorers. Strong at home.

Weaknesses: The defense is suspect. Mediocre defensive PPG. Not tall. Average road record. Average cover rate.

Notes: Same bucket as Texas A&M. Can see the run, won't bet on it.

Strengths: 3rd tallest team in the ENTIRE COUNTRY. Experienced roster. Has size everywhere. Strong EFG and decent three-point shooting. Beat Florida last year in the SEC tourney. Played Florida to a 2-point game this season. Strong at home.

Weaknesses: The defense is mediocre. Poor free throw shooting (3rd worst in SEC). Below average road record. Below average cover rate. Gets Kentucky in the second round and then Florida in the quarters. Dead on arrival from a positioning standpoint.

Notes: Missouri vs Kentucky will be probably the best live betting game of the year since both these teams are spastic. Shockingly, Mizzou may be the team that can stun Florida given the size matchup and recent history. At their odds we have to take a sprinkle, but the bracket position is brutal.

Strengths: KenPom Net is 6th in the SEC, higher than several teams seeded above them. Strong adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency. Solid scoring and defensive PPG. 19th tallest team in the country. Strong at home. Has a 7-footer providing interior size.

Weaknesses: Very young at 169th in experience. 4-6 on the road. Plays Day 1, meaning 5 games in 5 days to win it. Below average cover rate. Slow starters who turn it on in the second half, which is not ideal for a gauntlet format.

Notes: MAJOR SLEEPER. This team has a higher KenPom Net than Georgia, Texas A&M, and Missouri. I love betting them in the second half because they always start slow then crank it up. I like that they get Missouri in Round 2, which is the weakest of the first-round bye teams. But playing Day 1 and needing five wins fucking sucks. Worth a sprinkle.

Strengths: 3rd best offense in the SEC by adjusted efficiency. Can score at 84 a game. 4th most experienced roster in the country. Solid three-point and free throw shooting. Four double-figure scorers. Highest over rate in the SEC means every game is a track meet. Above average cover rate.

Weaknesses: The defense is a problem. Mediocre defensive PPG. Losing road record. The high over rate means they can't stop anyone. Against elite offenses, the defense will get them killed.

Notes: Falls into the 'yeah I can see them making a run, but no I won't bet on it' category. The offense is real but the defense will get them killed against the top teams.

Strengths: 7th most experienced roster in the country. Second best three-point shooting in the SEC. Strong adjusted offensive efficiency. Won 6 of their last 8 and 4 in a row. Riding momentum hard. Four guys who can score.

Weaknesses: The defense is mediocre. Poor road record. Below average cover rate. Their season: 11-3, then 0-9, then 6-2. That volatility is terrifying.

Notes: The type of team that can win a few games on the weak side of the bracket. The hot streak is real, but the 9-game losing streak in the middle of the season tells you who they really are. Interesting but not confident.

Strengths: Strong adjusted offensive efficiency. Can score at 83+ a game. Has two talented scorers. Decent size. Solid offensive rebounding.

Weaknesses: Lost 8 of their last 10. The defense is mediocre. 2-8 on the road. Second worst cover rate in the SEC. High over rate. Complete disaster down the stretch.

Notes: I fucking despise Bruce Pearl, but this could be a factory reset. They get an equally shitty Miss State team who lost their last 5. I think they either lose to Miss State or win 2-3 games and steal a bid to the NCAA Tourney. We've seen it before with NC State where the factory reset brings out the preseason expectations. Worth a stab even though they are fucking retarded.

Strengths: Has a guy who can go off for 20+ on any given night. Experienced roster.

Weaknesses: Lost their last 5 coming in. Worst cover rate in the entire SEC. The defense is mediocre. Worst free throw shooting in the conference. Losing road record. Negative scoring margin. This team is broken.

Notes: Fucking disaster. Only here to potentially lose to Auburn or give Auburn a first-round exit.

Strengths: Has a senior scorer. Very experienced roster. Best free throw shooting in the SEC.

Weaknesses: Second worst offense in the SEC by adjusted efficiency. Dead last in the conference in both offensive and total rebounding. 2-8 on the road. Negative scoring margin. Weakest rebounding team in the conference.

Notes: Fucking disaster.

Strengths: Has two guys who can score. High over rate means games are shootouts.

Weaknesses: Third worst cover rate in the SEC. Can't even win at home at 7-9. Losing road record. Negative scoring margin. Not experienced.

Notes: Fucking disaster.

Strengths: 9th most experienced roster in the country. Above average cover rate. Four double-figure scorers. Decent size. Good free throw shooting.

Weaknesses: 3-15 in conference play. The defense is mediocre. 3-7 on the road. Gets Kentucky in Round 1.

Notes: Fucking disaster.