Your ultimate guide to dominating March Madness—featuring expert breakdowns, regional analysis, betting strategies, and daily write-ups from Tommy G a.k.a BasketballJesus, and the entire crew. All bets will be posted in my Discord hashtag and inside this Bible under Daily Bets, Bets will be out within an hour of game time in the bible (or before) while all live bets will be posted exclusively in Discord due to their time-sensitive nature. Click the yellow box below to get a free week of Discord access.
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Daily Writeups and Bets
Data Hub
Matchup Explorer
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Compare any two tournament teams head-to-head
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Player Explorer
Guard vs Big scoring breakdown & color-coded rosters
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Tommy G Bracket Articles
The Cracker Factor
The Cracker Factory
2026 NCAA Tournament Title Favorites Analysis
This field is STACKED with A-tier ratings. We have analyzed the whole top 15 and Arizona has become the first team in Cracker Factory history to achieve a perfect 100 grade. The Cracker Factor has correctly predicted the national champion for 3 consecutive years.
Title Contenders
7 Teams
First Ever Perfect Score
#1
Arizona
Title Contender
Super Halfer: BurriesAlpha Overseas: Dell'Orso
100
S-Tier
#2
Florida
Title Contender
Super Halfer: ClaytonAlpha Overseas: Klavzar
98
S-Tier
#3
Iowa State
Title Contender
Super Halfer: LipseyAlpha Overseas: Momcilovic
98
S-Tier
#4
Duke
Title Contender
Super Halfer: Cameron Boozer
96
A-Tier
#5
Purdue
Title Contender
93
A-Tier
#6
Michigan
Title Contender
Super Halfer: CadeauAlpha Overseas: Lendenborg
92
A-Tier
#7
UConn
Title Contender
Super Halfer: Solo BallAlpha Overseas: Reibe
92
A-Tier
Can't Win Due to Lack of Cracker Factor
3 Teams
#8
Kansas
Can't Win
Super Halfer: Tre White (unconfirmed)
25
C-Tier
#9
Houston
Can't Win
0
F-Tier
#10
Arkansas
Can't Win
0
F-Tier
More analysis coming soon... Stay tuned for the full breakdown of all tournament teams.
The Commidiots (The 10 Biggest Bracket Blunders)
This section is meant to point out the idiocy of the Committee, hence: Commidiots. Unlike year's past, I am not livid with fire in my eyes looking at the bracket, but there are a few spots which make zero sense! Last year the idiots took 75% of my top 8 and threw them in the same region. This year there are some mistakes, but nowhere near as egregious as the last couple years. Here were some of the worst misses ranked in order:
10 Tommandments
This time of year, especially over the last few weeks, most games are played on neutral courts, which removes the biggest cheat code in college basketball betting: home court advantage.
But here's the mistake most bettors make — they assume neutral courts are actually neutral. They're not.
There are massive proximity advantages that need to be factored in, and most people only look at them for the top seeds. The real edges often come when you look deeper at the bracket.
For example:
St. John's (5) and Kansas (4) have to fly all the way out to San Diego, despite being in the East region. If they advance, they then fly back across the country to face a team like Duke.
Kansas vs California Baptist (13) in San Diego is essentially a road game for Kansas against a 13 seed.
Miami (7) has to travel to St. Louis to play the Missouri Tigers (10) — basically a home game for Missouri.
Florida, the defending champion and a #1 seed, could end up playing Houston in Houston in the Elite Eight.
These are the bracket nuances that most people completely ignore.
Home Away From Home
We made a killing during the conference tournaments by focusing on one simple thing: road records.
About 95% of my bets during the season are on home teams, because home court in college basketball can be an absolute cheat code. For example, in the ASUN conference this year, the best team in the conference was only 6–10 on the road. Meanwhile, the third-worst team in the league still had a winning home record:
ASUN Conference
Conference
Overall
Home
Away
Team
W-L
PCT
W-L
PCT
W-L
W-L
Central Arkansas Bears
15-3
.833
22-12
.647
14-1
6-10
Austin Peay Governors
15-3
.833
22-9
.710
12-1
9-7
Queens University Royals
13-5
.722
21-13
.618
12-2
6-10
Lipscomb Bisons
12-6
.667
19-13
.594
13-1
6-11
Florida Gulf Coast Eagles
8-10
.444
16-18
.471
11-6
3-11
West Georgia Wolves
8-10
.444
15-17
.469
10-5
4-11
Bellarmine Knights
7-11
.389
13-19
.406
10-5
2-13
Jacksonville Dolphins
7-11
.389
12-20
.375
8-4
3-14
Eastern Kentucky Colonels
7-11
.389
11-21
.344
8-7
3-13
Stetson Hatters
7-11
.389
12-21
.364
9-5
2-14
North Florida Ospreys
5-13
.278
7-25
.219
5-8
2-14
North Alabama Lions
4-14
.222
9-21
.300
5-8
4-12
I use a 15-point SysTom that incorporates everything from officiating data to advanced offensive and defensive metrics. But sometimes, while the analytics crowd is digging so deep they pop up in China… the answer is simple: home teams dominate.
Ride the Road Warriors
A simple way to think about neutral-site games is this: they're usually road games for both teams. So when in doubt, back the team that has been better on the road.
This was a huge edge during the conference tournaments and will be again in March. Teams like St. John's and Arizona, who went 9–1 on the road, are far more trustworthy in these settings than teams that struggled away from home.
Most bettors look at neutral court records, which is a mistake. If you can win on the road… you can definitely win on a neutral floor.
Neutral Is the New Troll
Neutral sites aren't really about rims or court dimensions. They're about fans and energy. That's why I evaluate:
Fan travel strength
Geographic proximity
Ticket sales data
School travel bases
Some obvious spots — like Houston playing in Houston — are already priced into the line. But I go deeper. I track StubHub ticket trends and tap into decades of connections at these universities to get a pulse on how well teams will travel and what the crowd environment will actually look like.
Because if one team brings three times the fans, that game isn't neutral anymore.
One of the biggest issues with neutral court data is that almost every team's neutral-court games happen at the beginning of the season. And what do we care least about when handicapping teams in March? October and November basketball. The teams we see in March often look nothing like the teams from early-season tournaments.
Neutral court stats also don't account for travel or fan presence. If Duke plays UCLA in Georgia, Duke can bus to the game while UCLA has to fly 3,000 miles. That's not neutral — that's a huge edge.
The real question isn't "Where is the game?" — it's "Which team will have more fans in the building?" Because in March… neutral is the new troll.
11 is the New 12...OR IS IT?
"12 seeds always beat 5 seeds" is about to become the second most annoying thing you'll hear during March Madness.
(The most annoying one is "it's hard to beat a team three times," which is complete nonsense if you actually look at the math.)
Now don't get me wrong — 12 seeds will absolutely pull some upsets this year. They always do. But should you treat every 5 seed like it's radioactive and run away from it like a hot chick with a cold sore? No.
Let's turn this myth into math. Like most things in life, once the public grabs onto a narrative, they never let go, even when the data clearly disproves it.
The "12-over-5 phenomenon" really came from one specific stretch. Between 2008 and 2015, what we saw was the rise of the mid-major, and the selection committee often matched elite small-school teams as 12 seeds against mediocre high-major teams seeded as 5s.
During that eight-year stretch from 2008 to 2015, the results were dramatic:
'00–'07
34.38%
11 of 32 twelve seeds won
'08–'15 (The Boom)
56.25%
18 of 32 twelve seeds won
'16–'24
34.38%
11 of 32 twelve seeds won
The "12 seed magic" was one eight-year anomaly, surrounded by long stretches of perfectly normal results. But once the public latches onto a storyline, they stop checking the numbers.
The Real Sleeper Seed: 11
While everyone talks about 12 seeds, they completely ignore something far more interesting. During that same "12-seed boom" period, there were four different tournaments where THREE 11-seeds advanced.
And over the last 26 years:
Year
9 Seeds
10 Seeds
11 Seeds
12 Seeds
13 Seeds
14 Seeds
15 Seeds
16 Seeds
2000
2
1
2
2
1
0
0
0
2001
2
2
1
1
0
1
0
0
2002
2
1
2
3
1
0
0
0
2003
2
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
2004
2
1
2
1
0
0
0
0
2005
2
2
1
1
0
0
0
0
2006
3
2
2
2
1
2
0
0
2007
2
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
2008
2
2
0
2
1
0
0
0
2009
2
1
3
3
1
0
0
0
2010
2
2
1
1
1
1
0
0
2011
2
3
3
2
1
0
0
0
2012
2
1
3
2
2
2
2
0
2013
2
2
1
3
1
0
0
0
2014
3
1
3
3
2
2
0
0
2015
2
1
2
2
1
0
1
0
2016
2
2
3
1
1
2
1
0
2017
2
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
2018
2
2
2
1
1
2
1
1
2019
2
3
1
3
1
0
0
0
2021
2
2
3
2
1
2
0
0
2022
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
0
2023
1
2
1
0
1
0
1
0
2024
2
1
2
2
0
1
0
0
2025
2
2
1
2
0
0
0
0
Win %
51.00%
40.00%
44.00%
42.00%
21.00%
17.00%
7.00%
1.00%
44%
11 Seeds Advance
42%
12 Seeds Advance
If you narrow it down to the last nine years, the gap gets even wider:
44.4%
11 Seeds (Last 9 Yrs)
36%
12 Seeds (Last 9 Yrs)
Yet nobody talks about 11 seeds the same way they talk about 12s.
What This Actually Means for Your Bracket
This doesn't mean you should ignore 12 seeds entirely. At the typical +money odds, even a 36% win rate can still offer betting value. But it does mean you should stop treating the 5 seed like it's a death sentence.
Because historically, 5 seeds still advance about 66% of the time.
Simple Rules to Remember
Do NOT auto-fade the 5 seeds. They advance nearly two-thirds of the time.
Be more cautious with 6 seeds, who historically struggle more than 5s.
12 seeds can offer value, but they are far from a guaranteed upset.
11 seeds are the best value on the board, advancing at the highest rate among the middle seeds.
10 seeds are very live, advancing around 50% of the time over the past six years.
14 seeds (17% win rate) can still be worth a sprinkle at +1000 odds or higher.
The Bottom Line
The public thinks the bracket is about "finding the 12 seed upset," but the math says the real value is somewhere else. Over the past several years, the best upset value has come from:
11
seed
→
14
seed
→
10
seed
→
12
seed
Don't fall into the media narrative that "12 over 5 is inevitable." That's a myth. This is math.
The Systom vs KenPom
Systom Sleepers
Teams the Systom ranks higher than KenPom
SMU
+18
Systom
#22
→
KenPom
#40
Missouri
+16
Systom
#28
→
KenPom
#44
Miami FL
+15
Systom
#16
→
KenPom
#31
UCLA
+14
Systom
#13
→
KenPom
#27
VCU
+13
Systom
#29
→
KenPom
#42
KenPom Favorites
Teams KenPom ranks higher than the Systom
Georgia
-16
Systom
#48
→
KenPom
#32
Louisville
-13
Systom
#32
→
KenPom
#19
Kansas
-12
Systom
#33
→
KenPom
#21
Texas
-12
Systom
#49
→
KenPom
#37
Texas Tech
-10
Systom
#30
→
KenPom
#20
Full Rankings— Click any column header to sort
Team
1
1
2
+1
1
Arizona
1
2
+1
2
2
4
+2
2
Florida
2
4
+2
3
3
6
+3
3
Iowa St.
3
6
+3
4
4
1
-3
4
Duke
4
1
-3
5
5
17
+12
5
St. John's
5
17
+12
6
6
3
-3
6
Michigan
6
3
-3
7
7
13
+6
7
Virginia
7
13
+6
8
8
7
-1
8
Illinois
8
7
-1
9
9
12
+3
9
Vanderbilt
9
12
+3
10
10
5
-5
10
Houston
10
5
-5
11
11
8
-3
11
Purdue
11
8
-3
12
12
15
+3
12
Arkansas
12
15
+3
13
13
27
+14
13
UCLA
13
27
+14
14
14
11
-3
14
UConn
14
11
-3
15
15
9
-6
15
Michigan St.
15
9
-6
16
16
31
+15
16
Miami FL
16
31
+15
17
17
10
-7
17
Gonzaga
17
10
-7
18
18
14
-4
18
Nebraska
18
14
-4
19
19
22
+3
19
Wisconsin
19
22
+3
20
20
30
+10
20
Utah St.
20
30
+10
21
21
23
+2
21
BYU
21
23
+2
22
22
40
+18
22
SMU
22
40
+18
23
23
18
-5
23
Alabama
23
18
-5
24
24
16
-8
24
Tennessee
24
16
-8
25
25
24
-1
25
Saint Mary's
25
24
-1
26
26
35
+9
26
Santa Clara
26
35
+9
27
27
28
+1
27
Kentucky
27
28
+1
28
28
44
+16
28
Missouri
28
44
+16
29
29
42
+13
29
VCU
29
42
+13
30
30
20
-10
30
Texas Tech
30
20
-10
31
31
43
+12
31
South Florida
31
43
+12
32
32
19
-13
32
Louisville
32
19
-13
33
33
21
-12
33
Kansas
33
21
-12
34
34
25
-9
34
Iowa
34
25
-9
35
35
26
-9
35
Ohio St.
35
26
-9
36
36
36
0
36
Clemson
36
36
0
37
37
39
+2
37
Saint Louis
37
39
+2
38
38
33
-5
38
Villanova
38
33
-5
39
39
29
-10
39
North Carolina
39
29
-10
40
40
46
+6
40
Akron
40
46
+6
41
41
41
0
41
TCU
41
41
0
42
42
45
+3
42
UCF
42
45
+3
43
43
48
+5
43
Northern Iowa
43
48
+5
44
44
34
-10
44
NC St.
44
34
-10
45
45
38
-7
45
Texas A&M
45
38
-7
46
46
50
+4
46
High Point
46
50
+4
47
47
49
+2
47
Hofstra
47
49
+2
48
48
32
-16
48
Georgia
48
32
-16
49
49
37
-12
49
Texas
49
37
-12
50
50
52
+2
50
Cal Baptist
50
52
+2
The Systom Seed Grid
This is a visual representation of where I rank each seed group from best to worst. For every seed line (1 through 16), the four teams are ranked 1st through 4th based on my SysTom model. This helps identify which regions got the strongest or weakest version of each seed, so you can gauge path difficulty when filling out your brackets. This year the grid is more balanced than last year, which means the Commidiots didn't do a horrific job, but there are still some anomalies.
Seed#TeamRegionRank
1
Arizona
W
BEST
Florida
S
#2
Duke
E
#3
Michigan
M
WORST
2
Iowa St.
M
BEST
Houston
S
#2
Purdue
W
#3
UConn
E
WORST
3
Virginia
M
BEST
Illinois
S
#2
Michigan St.
E
#3
Gonzaga
W
WORST
4
Arkansas
W
BEST
Nebraska
S
#2
Kansas
E
#3
Alabama
M
WORST
5
St. John's
E
BEST
Vanderbilt
S
#2
Wisconsin
W
#3
Texas Tech
M
WORST
6
BYU
W
BEST
Louisville
E
#2
Tennessee
M
#3
North Carolina
S
WORST
7
UCLA
E
BEST
Miami FL
W
#2
Saint Mary's
S
#3
Kentucky
M
WORST
8
Ohio St.
E
BEST
Clemson
S
#2
Villanova
W
#3
Georgia
M
WORST
9
Utah St.
W
BEST
Iowa
S
#2
Saint Louis
M
#3
TCU
S
WORST
10
Missouri
W
BEST
Santa Clara
M
#2
UCF
E
#3
Texas A&M
S
WORST
11
SMU
M
BEST
South Florida
E
#2
VCU
S
#3
NC St.
W
WORST
12
Northern Iowa
E
BEST
Akron
M
#2
High Point
W
#3
McNeese
S
WORST
13
Troy
S
BEST
Hofstra
M
#2
Cal Baptist
E
#3
Hawaii
W
WORST
14
Wright St.
M
BEST
North Dakota St.
E
#2
Penn
S
#3
Kennesaw St.
W
WORST
15
Idaho
S
BEST
Queens
W
#2
Furman
E
#3
Tennessee St.
M
WORST
16
Howard
M
BEST
Lehigh
S
#2
Siena
E
#3
LIU
W
WORST
Best at Each Seed
1
ArizonaWest
2
Iowa St.Midwest
3
VirginiaMidwest
4
ArkansasWest
5
St. John'sEast
6
BYUWest
7
UCLAEast
8
Ohio St.East
9
Utah St.West
10
MissouriWest
11
SMUMidwest
12
Northern IowaEast
13
TroySouth
14
Wright St.Midwest
15
IdahoSouth
16
HowardMidwest
Worst at Each Seed
1
MichiganMidwest
2
UConnEast
3
GonzagaWest
4
AlabamaMidwest
5
Texas TechMidwest
6
North CarolinaSouth
7
KentuckyMidwest
8
GeorgiaMidwest
9
TCUSouth
10
Texas A&MSouth
11
NC St.West
12
McNeeseSouth
13
HawaiiWest
14
Kennesaw St.West
15
Tennessee St.Midwest
16
LIUWest
Conference Tourney Recap
Conference Tournament Results
For most people the conference tournaments are a time to sweat and lose, but for Mayhem Sports it was another almost 50 unit run. Up 47.33 units over the span, just on my bets alone, with Joey, Siege, Moody and Rob putting up about another 50+ units in CBB over that same span!
Here are the takeaways from the Top 10 in the Conference Tournaments that need to be factored into their title hopes in the big dance:
Michigan looked vulnerable
(1) Michigan · Midwest Region
Bearish
After dominating the world for the better part of 4 months, Michigan should have lost to Ohio State and Wisconsin then got smacked by Purdue. This is very worrisome, especially considering the lack of titles the Big Ten has produced over the last 26 years (zero), largely in part to their teams fading after treacherous physical roads to March. The lack of Cason seems to be really affecting them.
Duke needs their guys back
(1) Duke · East Region
Cautious
The loss of Ngongba and Foster showed itself with a nailbiter win against FSU and nailbiter against Virginia to take down the title. Now, they did win the Tourney in spite of missing 2 key guys, but I don’t think they are going to be able to make it to April without 1 or both coming back at 100%.
Arizona is a wagon
(1) Arizona · West Region
Bullish
They handled Houston with ease, never trailing in the 2nd half, and the score looked closer than the game actually was. The Iowa State game was close throughout, but this Iowa State team is back and Arizona battled from early deficits and took control and didn’t relinquish it at the end, showing they are battle tested enough to win the big game.
Florida has a Vandy problem
(1) Florida · South Region
Cautious
For some reason this Vandy team has Florida’s number this year. After a 98-94 shootout loss earlier in the year, Vandy came in and fucking Molly Whopped the Gators in the semis. This is not just a “this year” thing, cause for the last few years Vandy has played them tough with much less talent than they have now. The problem is, Vandy will be waiting for Florida in the sweet 16 if they both hold serve!
Vandy is a threat
(5) Vanderbilt · South Region
Bullish
See Florida.
Iowa State is BACK
(2) Iowa St. · Midwest Region
Bullish
After 2 absolute skullfuckings to start the tourney, Iowa State looks like they are back to title contender status going blow for blow with Arizona in their final tournament game. They did fall short, but Arizona is just that good — this was a VERY encouraging tourney for Cyclone backers like myself.
UConn is a fraud
(2) UConn · East Region
Bearish
I thought that game against St John’s that they won by 30 was an outlier and this weekend proved it was exactly that, as the Johnnies whipped their fucking cock out and mushroom stamped UConn from bell to bell. Looks like those 4 losses in their last 11 (with a couple bad losses) was more of “who they are” than “abberations.”
St John’s is gonna be a problem
(5) St. John's · East Region
Bullish
I’ve been screaming all year to stop worrying about Pitino’s boys and just let them mesh. 19 wins in 20 games later, here we are! St John’s got absolutely fucking hosed by the committee being sent out west to play then having to fly back east and take on Duke, but they just showed they have the toughness to bully the bullys on short rest, so Duke better duck.
Purdue may be different
(2) Purdue · West Region
Bearish
Nah, they will do the same Purdue shit they always do. Ignore the Tourney, they will choke.
Virginia is for real
(3) Virginia · Midwest Region
Bullish
Although they lost to an undermanned Duke in the Final by 4, it was their absolute bludgeoning of Miami which made heads turn. We already know they are not Duke, but they are sitting in one of the more beatable regions on the board, so it looks like the winner of UVA / Iowa State may just take out Michigan to come out of the bracket!
Overall the conference tournaments showed us that some of the juggernauts are beatable while putting some teams getting healthy at the right time on the radar.
Tommy's East Region Breakdown
Top Half Overview
This year the field was pretty much cut and dry so there weren't many things to freak out about like in years past, but the East is the bracket with the most mistakes. Duke being the 1 seed is a no brainer, but in my opinion UConn being the 2 is an absolute joke while St Johns who BEAT UCONN IN THE BIG EAST FINAL is a 5? And the Johnnies have to fly out west to San Diego after winning the Big East? GTFO.
UConn is the weakest 2 seed in the tourney and St Johns is the strangest 5, but the Johnnies having to play possibly the best 12, Kansas, then Duke before a possible matchup with UConn is a treacherous road. I would have loved it if the Johnnies were on the opposite side of Duke to make it an easy face off in the elite 8, but we will now see it in the sweet 16 instead.
Duke's health is a concern, but they will walk thru Siena. Ohio State/TCU is going to be a fun game with either of them having a punchers chance to knock Duke off. Kansas is a team you know I fucking hate, so they should beat Baptist and then the Johnnies should handle them. I think this is a pretty easy Duke/St John's sweet 16 with the winner taking down the winner of the bottom half of the bracket.
Duke's health will decide this, supposedly Foster may not be back til the Final 4 and they are saying Ngongba will be back earlier, but that may be "gamesmanship". If both were back and 100% I think Duke gets by, but the Johnnies have the coaching, health and toughness to upset the devils, so I will have the Johnnies coming out assuming Duke will be a little banged up.
Bottom Half Overview
The top half of this bracket for me is very clear, while the bottom is wide fucking open. UConn is an EXTREMELY vulnerable 2 seed and will not make it out of the bracket, but the decision on who will be is a tough one. Michigan State and Louisville are both overrated, so this portion of the region is primed for an upset if you wanna take a risk.
The winner of UCF/UCLA could 100% beat UConn and the winner of Louisville/S.Florida could 100% beat Michigan State, so you might as well take a risk or two here, especially if your bracket pool rewards lower seeds. Louisville is only a 5.5 pt favorite for good reason, and I love this S Florida team, so I am going with the upset here.
UConn should beat Furman (the fact they lose to St Johns and then get FURMAN while the Johnnies get UNI is pissing me off), but I think UConn is knocked off by the winner of UCLA/UCF. UCLA will be my pick to come out of this bracket even though they have to go out east, but if they are 100% healthy finally they just beat Michigan State in the Big10 tourney so they are my dark horse to come out of the bottom half.
Final 4 Picks Ranked
1
St Johns
Tough road, tough team, taking a shot
2
Duke
Health concerns with 2 of top 4 scorers potentially being out, or would be 1
3
UCLA
Hot at the right time with soft half of the bracket
4
Michigan State
Just don't love this team, but soft half of bracket
5
UConn
Soft half of the bracket but soft team also
Bracket Busters (Ranked by Likelihood)
St Johns to reach the Final 4 and knock out Duke
UCLA to the Elite 8 taking out MSU and UConn in its wake
South Florida to Sweet 16 and bumping out Kansas along the way
UCF to the Sweet 16 if they can get by UCLA, I can see them taking out UConn
Tommy's South Region Breakdown
Top Half Overview
Last year I predicted Florida would win it all in October at +4000 before anyone, and they did it, but this year although they are probably my favorite team to take it down, I don't think it is as obvious as last year to me. Florida will draw a tough round 2 matchup with a hot Clemson or Cracker Factored up Iowa team, then will get the only team that may have gotten more fucked than St Johns with their seeding in Vandy.
Vandy not only got fucked by being seeded too low, but like the Johnnies they get paired up with a VERY dangerous 12 seed. Nebraska as the 4 vs Troy has potential upset written all over it (especially considering Nebraska has never won a March Madness game in their history), but it won't matter much cause Vandy should beat whoever wins.
Vandy/Florida is pretty clean cut elite 8 matchup and we just saw Vandy knock Florida off in the SEC tourney and throwing up 94 in a 98-94 loss earlier in the year, so this is a problem for Florida if this happens (throw a Vandy Final 4 future out there if you are slamming Florida to win it all as a potential hedge). I have Florida taking down Vandy, but I am kinda hoping Vandy gets knocked off so the path is easier because no one in the bottom half of the bracket scares me at all for Florida.
Bottom Half Overview
Houston is the 2 in this half of the region who usually destroys weaker teams, but does not ever have the cracker factor for me to get excited about (and I am not a Kelvin Sampson guy). This Idaho team is sneaky as fuck, but gets a disastrous 1st round matchup with Houston. Illinois is sneaky here cause I think they roll Penn and get the winner of UNC/VCU, who I think is VCU. UNC is vulnerable without their best player Caleb Wilson and I picked Clemson to knock them off in the conf. Tourney so I am going to do the same with VCU here.
St Mary's/Texas AM is going to be fun as fuck with 2 completely opposite styles, but I like the Gaels here to knock off the aggies and then face Houston where the total of that game may be the lowest of the bracket. Marys beat the Zags once and played 'em to the wire in the other matchup so they have the power to bang with Houston.
Houston will most likely beat Marys but I am going to put Illinois past them cause I can't get that 3 game stretch a month ago where Houston lost back to back to back games to Iowa St, Kansas and Arizona, then losing again to Arizona in the conference final, so I don't think they make it out. This is not the same team as it was last year.
Final 4 Picks Ranked
1
Florida
Pedigree and talent, but faces their nemesis too early
2
Vandy
The nemesis
3
Illinois
Soft path out of the 1st weekend
4
Houston
Will be chalk cause of the easy road, don't love the team this yr
5
St Marys
Sneaky as fuck, have already shown they can battle with big boys
Sleeper Potential (Ranked by Likelihood)
VCU to knock off UNC (and potentially Illinois)
Marys to knock off Houston and potentially come out of the bottom half
Troy to potentially upset Nebraska
Vandy to knock off Florida and potentially make the Final 4
Tommy's West Region Breakdown
Top Half Overview
The West is literally the Wild Wild West this year with a lot of teams who can score with anyone, so this could be nothing but shootouts. Arizona is elite and I will have them coming out of this bracket. Arizona's draw is fine, it's not elite, but not difficult, so that is enough for me to at least send them directly to the sweet 16.
Arkansas is DANGEROUS and you guys know I love them every year, but this looks like a LOCK for an Arizona/Arkansas showdown (which can go either way). I think High Point can knock off Wisconsin here and Villanova should be embarrassed to be a 6 seed after that performance against Georgetown, so gimme Utah State against my alma mater to advance.
Arkansas and Acuff have potential to upset Arizona here, but I am going to have Arizona come out of this region and potentially win it all. The thoughts on this Arkansas/Zona game could change depending on current form heading into the 2nd weekend, which would then also alter my national champion potentially, but we will have that handled with the futures bets already.
Bottom Half Overview
The bottom half of this bracket is where I am either going to win or lose my bracket tournaments because you have Purdue and Gonzaga who are notorious choke artists and I never touch them, along with some of my underseeded darlings in BYU, NCST, Miami and Mizzu. I still have not made an official decision on who out of these 4 teams I will pick as a complete bracket buster to get out of the bottom half but it will be one of them (as of now it is BYU with AJ going full Melo).
Purdue has a much tougher matchup than people realize in their opening game with Queens, who they will beat, but I will def be taking the points in this one. After Purdue beats Queens, they will lose to the winner of Miami/Missouri, but the problem is I don't know who wins in Miami/Missouri lol. I am going to side with the Canes on this one but I will flip flop the winner here on my brackets, but Miami is the better metric team so safer move here. Purdue is everyone's darling to make the Final 4, but they will wake up again when they realize that unless there is a 9 foot tall asian mongoloid who the league is cheating for at center, Purdue is going to bow out early.
Gonzaga is a joke and I am sick of hearing about them. St Marys beat their ass, Santa Clara was beating them all game until the Zags turned it on late and Portland knocked them off a month ago, so in a weak conference to not walk thru it is a negative. The Zags are gonna run into either BYU or NCST and both those teams will be out for blood. BYU is my darkhorse here, I wish Saunders was playing, but AJ Dybantsa is about to go full Melo here and win 2+ games by himself. AJ had BYU tied with Houston in the final minutes before falling late and Gonzaga is not Houston. Whoever comes out of this half of the region is going to get skullfucked by Arizona so you can take some chances down here, especially with some perennial chokers as the favorites.
Final 4 Picks Ranked
1
Arizona
Whole fuckin team is NBA players + amazing cracker factor score
2
Arkansas
Acuff is a God, but sucks they have to see Zona to reach Indy
3
Purdue
I know I didn't pick them, but they are the 3rd best team
4
Miami
Couple weaker higher seeds imo, but horrible round 1 matchup
5
BYU
AJ has to go full Melo with no Saunders...and I think he does
Sleeper Potential (Ranked by Likelihood)
Utah St to beat Nova (even tho this isn't really an upset)
High Point to knock off Wisconsin
BYU deep run
Miami deep run
Missouri deep run
Tommy's Midwest Region Breakdown
Top Half Overview
Michigan will walk to the elite 8 here since the top half of this bracket is a joke. Alabama is the weakest 4 seed on the board, Texas Tech without Toppin is now the weakest 5 and Georgia/St Louis is by far the weakest 8/9 matchup. After coasting thru the top half though Michigan is in trouble when they get either Iowa State or Virginia, but I will get into that in a minute.
Akron is my favorite sleeper to knock off Texas Tech, who is a shell of themselves without Toppin. St Louis is going to knock off Georgia on the back of Cream and Hofstra could 100% knock off Bama if Bama isn't hitting their 3's. Now could Bama or Tech end up holding serve and facing Michigan, 100%, but they are going to get dominated by the Wolverines if that happens so they are safe to pick the upset against from a bracket perspective. Michigan, who I think is flawed, walks to the Elite 8.
Bottom Half Overview
This is in my opinion the most stacked half of a region BY FAR!!! Iowa State is a team I have been saying is a national champion contender, Virginia is not the same ole UVA cause they get buckets now, Tennessee is overrated as a 6, but Kentucky and Santa Clara are both PROBLEMS in that 7/10 matchup while even the play-in winner will be an SMU team who I absolutely love or a Miami OH team that went undefeated this regular season and finally got their loss out of the way.
I think ISU comes out, Tennessee loses to SMU and it's UVA/ISU sweet 16 matchup and the winner BEATS MICHIGAN...yes...I said it. Don't be shocked at all if SMU comes out of this either. SMU has not been right all year and may be getting Edwards back. They dominated Louisville that whole game before the refs stole it from them, so stab a small future on them to be a Final 4 team...OR lose to Miami OH.
This bracket will come down to who wins UVA/ISU and I am too high on ISU to not send them through and the winner makes the Final 4.
Final 4 Picks Ranked
1
Iowa State
This has been my darling all year, Virginia should be the worry
2
Virginia
Love this team and should be a toss up with ISU
3
Michigan
Have not looked the same since Cason went down
4
SMU
If Edwards is back, this team can make a serious run
5
Santa Clara
Most underrated team in the country possibly
Sleeper Potential (Ranked by Likelihood)
Akron to upset Texas Tech
SMU to beat Miami OH, then beat Tennessee and possibly come out of region
Iowa State to beat Michigan
Virginia to beat Michigan
Santa Clara to beat Kentucky
Tommy's Final 4 and Winner
I am very solid on Arizona and Florida coming out of their regions as I said above, I think they are the 2 best teams in the country. As for St Johns and Iowa State the big factor is that I think Duke and Michigan's injuries are making them susceptible to an upset, but this could end up being an overreaction.
If I didn't go with the Johnnies I would put Duke in their place, but if I don't go with Iowa State it would be Virginia in their place...I just don't believe in Michigan, they should have lost to Ohio State and Wisconsin before inevitably getting embarrassed by Purdue in the finale, so it's a no for me.
Almost every bracket I make is gonna have Zona Florida and in 60% of them it'll be Zona taking it down, 40% Florida and I will have some fun futures on the rest of the teams who have a prayer.
East
St Johns
#5 Seed
South
Florida
#1 Seed
West
Arizona
#1 Seed
Midwest
Iowa State
#2 Seed
National Champion
Arizona
60% of brackets · Florida 40%
NostraThomas Future Bets
SysTom March Madness Futures
Separate 100 unit bankroll. About 60% of the futures bankroll is at risk here, leaving 40% for in-tourney futures.
Advance Further
15u risked
Arizona > Houston-1503u
Arkansas > Kansas+1303u
Arizona > Duke+1503u
Iowa State > Houston+1353u
Vandy > Texas Tech+1303u
National Championship
9.5u risked
Arizona+4004u
Florida+8002u
Iowa St.+18001u
Virginia+75000.5u
Arkansas+65000.5u
St. John's+80000.5u
Vanderbilt+80000.5u
UCLA+250000.1u
BYU+400000.1u
Miami FL+700000.1u
Missouri+1000000.1u
SMU+1000000.1u
Final Four
7u risked
Iowa St.+3203u
St. John's+11001u
Vanderbilt+11001u
UCLA+27000.5u
BYU+35000.5u
Miami FL+45000.5u
Missouri+100000.25u
SMU+150000.25u
Elite 8
9.25u risked
Iowa St.-1205u
St. John's+5501u
Vanderbilt+4001u
UCLA+7000.5u
BYU+10000.5u
Miami FL+12000.5u
Missouri+20000.5u
SMU+40000.25u
Sweet 16
23u risked
Arkansas-1555u
St. John's-1105u
Vanderbilt-1304u
UCLA+2702u
BYU+3501u
Miami FL+5001u
Saint Mary's+5501u
Missouri+7501u
SMU+11000.5u
Akron+11000.5u
Hofstra+27000.5u
Saint Louis+17000.5u
VCU+10000.5u
High Point+27000.5u
Make sure to make a separate bankroll for futures. Every unit is 1% of your bankroll, so if you put $100 aside, each unit will be $1.
You do not have to bet all of these. There is about 60% of your futures bankroll at risk here, which still leaves 40% of it for in-tourney futures.
I will be putting out some futures parlays also, but I like to wait til the Tourney gets going for those.
Calcutta Tips
Calcutta Strategy
As someone who swept the Final Four in a Calcutta for $60K against top gamblers and consistently wins these, I'll keep this simple: this is not about picking the best teams. It's about pricing, path, and leverage.
Calcutta isn't for nits. If you're not willing to be one of the top spenders, you're dead before it starts.
You either control the room... or you get controlled.
The first few bids set the entire tone of the auction.
Overpay early (preferably on a cheaper team)
Establish yourself as the pace-setter
Make the room uncomfortable
Once people see you're willing to snap-call and push prices, they'll hesitate to bid against you. That's when you gain control.
Final Mindset
This isn't about being right. It's about:
Controlling the room
Forcing bad prices
Owning paths, not teams
If you walk out with a few strong paths, multiple cheap outs, and one or two high-upside anchors...
You're live to take the whole thing down.
Survivor Tips
Survivor Strategy
As someone who consistently wins survivor pools across sports, there are a few non-negotiable rules you have to follow.
Every pool is different.
Many leagues require multiple picks in later rounds, and if you didn't plan ahead, you can get stuck in a spot where you literally can't make a pick.
That's how people get eliminated without even losing a game.
There's usually no second place in survivor. If you're not first, you're last.
You need to be willing to:
Lose Day 1
Take calculated risks early
Save your best teams for later rounds
Playing safe early just leaves you dead late.
Final Thought
Survivor isn't about picking winners. It's about:
Outlasting the field
Managing your path
Timing your risk
I'll be breaking this down daily in the Discord, so don't hesitate to ask questions as we go. We'll navigate it together.
Live Show Links
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Recorded Shows and Links
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Capper Bracket Overviews
The Seige's Bracket Breakdown
Overview
In the 2024-2025 March Madness tournament there were only 7 first round upsets of which 4 were 9's over 8's and 10's over 7's... the days of mass chaos in the first round is likely over thanks to the portal. This provides an edge for us as people early on are looking for Cinderella stories when the value is what teams in the bottom half of the regions can go on deep runs (thanks to being on the opposite side of the #1 seeds).
Throughout this preview I'm going to focus on the bottom part of the regions as I think that's where the difference will be made in your brackets and the betting.
Duke is the #1 Seed in this region and will have no issues until the Sweet 16 when it faces the St. Johns/Kansas winner in a game that will come down to whether Kansas can handle the St. Johns pressure. If they can I like them to advance, if they can't St. Johns will get too many cheap points for Kansas to keep up with. This sounds like a disservice to Northern Iowa and Cal Baptist and if they were in other regions I think I'd like them a bit more but drawing the strongest 4 and 5 seeds is just a brutal draw for two teams that play slow and should struggle with the athleticism of Kansas and St. John's. The only way Northern Iowa can win is if they just go crazy from 3 which isn't totally insane. Northern Iowa shot 35.5% behind the arc this year and 3's accounted for 40% of their total FG attempts but they are going to have issues in every other element of the game so it's gonna take a 50% from three game to pull a shocker. I'm not high on Ohio State at all but they actually drew a fantastic matchup against TCU who can't score at all. Ohio State is just a bit better than TCU at everything and there isn't a calling card for TCU to hang its hat on.
The bottom of this region is absolutely fascinating with a mix of fast teams and slow teams but everyone on this side of the draw can shoot 3's at a great clip with the worst team still shooting 3's at 32.7% clip (Furman) and 6 of the 8 teams shooting at a 35% clip. This leads to more variance as a hot/cold day from three can have a huge impact.
There is no better game where this is a factor than Michigan State vs North Dakota State which will be played at a snail's pace with both teams well into the 200's in pace. Michigan State is one of the easiest teams in the country to understand, they want to make you play half court offense and defense and they are gonna work the ball inside to try and get shots at the rim or kick outs for open 3's. They draw a tougher than you'd think matchup in a 3-14 game against North Dakota State who takes 42.5% of their shots from behind the arc while making 36.5% of them. North Dakota State's biggest issue is the leap in class going from Summit League opposition to Big Ten opposition. Not going to be able to pull the trigger on North Dakota State but it's a red flag for Michigan State because this game is actually losable if things break poorly for them.
Louisville vs South Florida is the best matchup in the first round featuring two teams that love to play fast, shoot 3's, and force the opposition to turn the ball over. Louisville shoots the ball a tad better than South Florida but Louisville also takes 53% of its shots from behind the arc making them one of the highest variance teams in the country. It's rare for me to say a narrative matters in the NCAA Tournament but it's worth noting that South Florida's coach's father has never been able to see his son coach because of dementia but that will change in this game as the family is from the Buffalo area. You typically don't need more motivation in March but this is a very close knit USF team that knows the importance of this game. This game will have lots of scoring and lots of feedback loops based on when a team is making/missing shots. Schedule your Thursday around this game which tips off at 1:30 ET.
UConn will have no issues with Furman, while UCLA vs UCF is a tough game to call. UCLA says Dent is going to play in the NCAA tournament with a calf strain but who knows how limited he will be and if he can move. UCF is going to try and push the pace while UCLA will try to keep it slow (78th vs 318th in pace). Knowing what I know now I have to lean UCF but if Dent looks good I'd flip that to UCLA.
Best Bet
Duke to win East Region
-130
Longshot
USF to make Sweet 16
+700
TheSeige's "SEIGE" Bet
Michigan State to not make Sweet 16
+132
Joey's Bracket Breakdown
Joeyvam's 2026 NCAA Tournament Breakdown
My Final Four: UConn \u00b7 Purdue \u00b7 Michigan \u00b7 Houston
My National Champion:PURDUE +4000
I have four futures tickets live right now. Florida +1900, UConn +1500, and Kansas +1500, all placed on February 11th. And Purdue +4000, placed on March 15th.
Of everything I placed, Florida at +1900 in February is my best ticket from that session, the number was exceptional at placement and it still holds value even after the bracket revealed the geography problem. Kansas and UConn at +1500 are live tickets, but I will be honest: those are not numbers I am excited about based on where they are trading now. They did not represent the same kind of value Florida did when I placed them.
And then there is Purdue. Placed at +4000 on March 15th, during the Michigan game, while they were in the process of proving everything I already believed. The only bets I can point to in recent memory that compare in terms of value at placement were Florida last year, ironic enough, given I am holding them again as defending champions, and UConn in 2023, when they walked through the entire tournament dominating everyone in their path. That is the company my Florida and Purdue tickets keep. That is how good those numbers were.
I want to be upfront about what went into this. I did not write this article in an afternoon. I spent the last 48 hours straight going through every team in the field. Not skimming. Not recycling narratives I had already formed. I went directly to KenPom, Bart Torvik T-Rank, Haslametrics, EvanMiya, and Synergy Sports and I read the data on all 68 teams from scratch. Offensive efficiency ratings, defensive efficiency ratings, on-off differentials, injury-adjusted projections, pace data, three-point attempt rates, Quad 1 records, NET ratings, and every significant matchup implication I could find. I cross-referenced systems against each other to find where they agreed and, more importantly, where they disagreed. The disagreements are where the money is.
48 hours. No sleep worth mentioning. Every number you are about to read came directly from the source. I went line by line. I checked it twice. If this bracket breaks the way the data says it should, this is the most complete analytical picture of this tournament I have ever put together.
What I found confirmed some things I already believed, and completely changed my mind on others. The biggest revelation? What the committee actually did to the South bracket, and why Houston is, in my opinion, the single most advantaged team in the entire field despite carrying only a 2-seed. This is the story nobody in the national media is talking about, and it changes everything about how you should view this tournament.
My Signature Take: The Structural Story of This Tournament
The Sweet 16 and Elite Eight for the South region are being held in Houston, Texas. The Houston Cougars are the #2 seed in the South region. That means if chalk holds, Houston plays their third and fourth tournament games at Toyota Center in Houston, Texas, a 10-minute drive from the University of Houston campus, in front of a crowd that will be overwhelmingly theirs.
Illinois (#3 seed, KenPom #7, the #2 offense in America) walks into Houston's building in the Sweet 16. Florida (#1 seed, defending national champions, my +1900 ticket) walks into Houston's building in the Elite Eight.
Before the bracket released, I had Florida locked into my Final Four automatically. The geography changed everything. Florida and Illinois did not just get a hard draw, they got geographically punished. Houston did not just get a good draw, they got a home schedule built into rounds three and four of the NCAA Tournament. That is not a bracket. That is a gift.
This is why I am ranking Houston as the #1 team in the South bracket despite being the 2-seed. Duke is still the best pure team in the tournament on raw talent, nobody is disputing that. But in terms of tournament-specific advantage, no team in this bracket is positioned better than Houston.
My Four Futures Tickets, Honest Assessment
Purdue+4000Placed Mar 15CROWN JEWEL
Placed during the Michigan game while watching them win the Big Ten title in real time. KenPom #8, #1 offense in college basketball history at 131.6 points per 100 possessions. I saw enough. The number was a gift and the location sealed it. I am riding this to the national championship.
Florida+1900Placed Feb 11Best Feb Ticket
My best February ticket. +1900 on the reigning national champions before they were locked in as a 1-seed, that number was exceptional at placement and it still holds massive value. The geography problem is real but it does not change how good this number was. This is a defending champion with championship experience, KenPom #4, and a frontcourt built around Alex Condon and Thomas Haugh that nobody is fully prepared for.
Kansas+1500Placed Feb 11Live, Not Value
A live ticket but not a number I am excited about based on where Kansas is trading now. +1500 did not represent the same kind of value Florida did at placement. KenPom #21 with the #10 defense in the country and 9 Quad 1 wins. The 4-seed is fair for where they are. The odds just were not sharp enough.
UConn+1500Placed Feb 11Live, Not Value
Same story as Kansas, a live ticket but not a number I got right at placement. +1500 on a team that is KenPom #11 sitting in the toughest bracket in the field. The East bracket is brutal. Hurley has won this thing twice. The ceiling is real. The number just was not sharp enough.
Team
Seed
KenPom
Torvik
Hasl.
Off Rk
Def Rk
Key Note
Duke
E-1
#1
#1
Top 2
#4
#2
Boozer: highest OffRtg in KenPom history (projected)
Michigan
M-1
#3
#3
Top 3
#8
#1
Mara anchors #1 defense; #1 eFG% allowed (EvanMiya)
Arizona
W-1
#2
#2
Top 2
#5
#3
Krivas: best defensive impact in country (Synergy)
Florida
S-1
#4
#4
Top 5
#9
#6
Championship DNA; KenPom #6 defense
Illinois
S-3
#7
#7
Top 7
#2
#28
131.2 pts/100: 2nd best offense ever. UNDERSEEDED.
Houston
S-2
#5
#5
Top 5
#14
#5
Flemings: lottery pick PG; E8+S16 in Houston TX
Iowa State
M-2
#6
#6
Top 8
#21
#4
1-seed in almost any other year
Purdue
W-2
#8
#8
Top 10
#1
#36
131.6 pts/100: ALL-TIME KenPom offense record
Michigan St.
E-3
#9
#9
Top 10
#24
#13
Classic Izzo team. Physical, strong defensively.
Kansas
E-4
#21
#21
Top 22
#57
#10
9 Quad 1 wins; #10 DRtg nationally
UConn
E-2
#11
#11
Top 11
#30
#11
Title contender; holds opp to 65.1 PPG
Gonzaga
W-3
#10
#10
Top 10
#29
#9
Ike 19.7 PPG WCC POY; Huff OUT
Vanderbilt
S-5
#12
#12
Top 12
#7
#31
UNDERSEEDED. KenPom #12 as a 5-seed
Alabama
M-4
#18
#18
Top 18
#3
#67
Giving up 83.5 PPG. FADE.
Haslametrics: Biggest Seeding Crimes
Iowa (#9 South) has a better composite ranking than nine higher-seeded teams and is a 2.5-point betting favorite over Clemson, not an upset, a seeding error. Vanderbilt deserved a 3-seed at KenPom #12 with the #7 offense in the country. They got a 5. Iowa State drew a 2-seed. The field ahead of them is historically strong. That is not a seeding error, it is an acknowledgment of just how deep this bracket runs at the top. Alabama's #67 defense and loss to a 15-seed in the SEC Tournament makes them the most risky 4-seed to think about trusting in your bracket.
1-Seed: Duke (32-2) · My Pick: UConn · Key Injury: Caleb Foster OUT (Duke)
"One of the hardest brackets in modern tournament history. Four KenPom title contenders before the Final Four."
Duke Blue Devils#1 Seed, 32-2
KenPom #1 · #1 Defense in America
Record32-2
KenPom#1
Torvik#1
Off Rank#4
Def Rank#2
Title Odds+333
Injury Alert
Caleb Foster OUT (fractured foot surgery). EvanMiya: 3rd most impactful offensive player on the roster. Patrick Ngongba II (foot injury), hopeful to return for tournament.
Cameron Boozer (22.7 PPG, 10.2 RPG, 4.1 APG, 41% from three) is on pace for the highest offensive rating in KenPom history, more productive by every metric than Cooper Flagg was last season, when Flagg won National Player of the Year in a landslide. At 6-9, 250 pounds, Boozer is physically and analytically unlike any freshman this tournament has ever seen.
Duke went 32-2 with wins over 12 ranked opponents, tied with Arizona for the most ever entering a tournament. The #2 defense in the country behind only Michigan. Jon Scheyer has built something real in Durham. Cayden Boozer's emergence at point guard with Foster out has quietly become the team's most important storyline.
The problem: The East is an unprecedented gauntlet. UConn (#11 KenPom), Michigan State (#9), Kansas (defense #10), all KenPom-certified title contenders, all stand between Duke and Indianapolis. No other 1-seed in modern history has drawn this level of competition through the Elite Eight. Foster's absence thins the perimeter depth at the worst possible time.
UConn Huskies#2 Seed, 29-5
KenPom #11 · MY EAST PICK
Record29-5
KenPom#11
Off Rank#30
Def Rank#11
My Bet+1500
Dan Hurley is chasing history. John Wooden (1972, 1973, 1975) was the last coach to win three national titles in four years. Hurley is trying to do the same thing. The roster is built differently from those championship teams, but the ceiling is the same. Alex Karaban (12.9 PPG, 40% from three) is the only holdover from the 2023 and 2024 championship teams. Solo Ball (13.9 PPG), Tarris Reed Jr. (13.8 PPG, 8.0 RPG, 2.1 BPG), and Silas Demary Jr. (11.1 PPG) form an experienced, battle-tested core. Freshman Braylon Mullins competes beyond his years and is already being projected as an NBA-caliber talent. They won 18 straight games earlier this season and remain one of the most dangerous teams in the field.
How Hurley beats Duke: You cannot stop Cameron Boozer. Nobody in this field can. But Dan Hurley does not need to stop him. He needs to make everyone else a non-factor. UConn is built for ugly basketball. They hold opponents to 65.1 points per game and turn every game into a grind. Duke without Caleb Foster is thinner on the perimeter than anyone is publicly admitting. In a low-scoring grind that comes down to strictly execution, I trust Hurley's winning pedigree in March to get his team to execute down the stretch against a less experienced Duke team. Two national championships. He has been here. They have not.
The ideal scenario: Rooting for UConn in the East eliminates chalk Duke for bracket pools and positions me for a sweet victory with a potential Final Four matchup against Purdue if they can make it to Indy.
Michigan State Spartans#3 Seed, 25-7
KenPom #9 · The Team Nobody Covers
Record25-7
KenPom#9
Torvik#9
Off Reb Rate#7 nationally
Def Rank#13
Title CeilingFinal Four
This is a classic Izzo team. Physical, strong defensively, and a tough out for anyone in the field. They beat Arkansas, Kentucky, North Carolina, Purdue, and Illinois this season. They win off second-chance opportunities, seventh nationally in offensive rebounding rate, and a top-13 defense that suffocates teams in halfcourt situations. You do not need NBA prospects when you have Izzo. Eight previous Final Fours prove that.
Jeremy Fears Jr. (15.5 PPG, 9.1 APG, 1.3 SPG) has made a legitimate case to be America's best point guard this season and the nation's most improved player. He is the engine of everything Michigan State does. Behind him, four Spartans average double figures and four more log at least 15 minutes a game. This is a deep, experienced team with a proven coach and the profile to reach Indianapolis. They played Duke to a 6-point loss back in December, the same Duke team that is the #1 overall seed. A Final Four run is not a stretch. It is entirely within reach.
Kansas Jayhawks#4 Seed, 23-10
KenPom #21 · My +1500 Ticket
KenPom#21
Torvik#21
Def Rank#10
Q1 Wins9
Off Rank#57
My Bet+1500
I will be straightforward: +1500 on Kansas is a live ticket but not a number I am proud of. I did not get the value I thought I did in February. The 4-seed is accurate for where this team is. Kansas is 9 Quad 1 wins deep with the #10 defense in the country. This is a well-seeded team. The problem is the odds did not reflect enough value. And this entire ticket comes down to one player.
Here is my real conviction on this ticket: Peterson is the sole reason this team makes a run or crashes and burns. When healthy and at his peak, you can make a genuine argument that Darryn Peterson is the best player in the country. I do not trust many players more in a close game in the final minutes than I trust Peterson with the ball in his hands. That is not a small statement. That is the kind of player who wins tournament games that have no business being won, who takes over in the last three minutes when everyone else on the floor is feeling the pressure and he is the only one who looks completely at ease. If he is locked in, this bracket opens up. If he is limited, this ticket goes cold fast.
The operative phrase is when healthy. Peterson has been in and out of the lineup all season and that qualifier matters enormously in March. A healthy, locked-in Peterson changes everything about this bracket. An injured or limited Peterson and the ticket is riding on Bill Self's coaching and the #8 defense alone.
The matchup to watch: A potential Peterson vs. Boozer Sweet 16 is the marquee individual matchup in the entire field. The best player in the country at his peak against Cameron Boozer. I would watch that game if I had nothing riding on it. I have something riding on it.
UNI Over St. John's: I'm Taking It
Here is why: UNI is #24 defensively in the entire country. They play at the third-slowest pace in all of Division I. St. John's thrives in transition, that is their identity. UNI's defense travels and the pace kills St. John's transition game completely. The market has St. John's at -10.5. KenPom #17 with the #12 defense in the country. That is real chalk. But UNI's #24 defense at the third-slowest pace in D1 is the exact counter.
Here is what nobody is talking about: St. John's does not have a true point guard. Darling is a great player but he is not your ideal high-major point guard running an offense in a halfcourt grind. Sellers and Isaiah Jackson are more NBA combo guard types. They are built to play in space, push in transition, and create off movement. That is exactly what UNI takes away. When you slow this game down to 62 possessions and make St. John's execute in the halfcourt with no floor general to run the show, that roster construction becomes a real problem.
The case against: St. John's is KenPom #17, Big East champions with the #12 defense in the country, and Zuby Ejiofor (Big East POY, 16.3 PPG, 7.1 RPG) is a genuine All-American talent who won 16 of 17 games to close the season.
My read: UNI's defense is real. Their pace neutralizes what St. John's does best. The point guard question is the deciding factor. This is my boldest first-round call and the one that will age best if it hits.
Moody's Bracket Breakdown
Moody G's 2026 Bracket Sermon
Have you heard the good word?
Not the hollow gospel cried out in the marketplace by the false prophets of chalk, not the snake oil passed hand to hand by wandering men swearing every favored king was blessed from the beginning. I speak now not from the mountaintop of the public square, but from my own passage of the Bracket Bible, where kings are tested, serpents wait in the garden, and every crown must first be dragged through blood, fire, and temptation before it is worthy to be worn.
Come closer and listen...
Moody G's National Champion
Iowa State Cyclones
Iowa State over UConn · The team that walks through the fire
This region begins with a king on the throne, and that king is Duke. They wear the crown of the one seed, they hold the scepter, and they carry that old school blue blood glow that always seems to draw the faithful. Duke is the cathedral program here, the one generations have been taught to fear and respect. But kingdoms do not last forever just because they are old, and this is not a peaceful corner of the bracket. This is a land filled with challengers, traps, and teams waiting in the shadows with stones in their hands. The path here is brutal. No team is being handed safe passage, the region is dark and full of terrors.
What makes this region challenging is that the throne may belong to Duke, but the road to keep it is lined with fire. UConn is here, and UConn feels like the new blue blood, the program that has spent the modern era building its own book of scripture for March. They are exactly the kind of team this tournament loves to breathe life into when everybody starts doubting whether the old power still lives. Michigan State is here too, a team sturdy enough to survive the opening trials and march into the second weekend without needing me to preach them as some chosen champion. And then there is the Johnnies, the red clad force of chaos, the team I want alive because if this region turns to thunder early, they are one of the few who can split it wide open.
Even before anybody can dream of toppling the king, there are other tests written into the scroll. St. John's still has to pass through Kansas, and Kansas is not some ordinary opponent. They are more like Saul on one day and Nebuchadnezzar on the next, one moment wandering and confused, the next moment terrifying enough to make a whole kingdom tremble. They are gifted enough to beat anybody and unstable enough to lose the plot without warning. That makes them dangerous in a way the seed line cannot fully capture.
This whole region feels like a test of pride, power, and endurance. The old throne is real, but so is the rising power beside it. The crown rests with Duke, but UConn has become one of the great houses March now bends its knee to.
And if the path ever gives us St. John's and UConn again, then there is another layer to the prophecy. St. John's already got the better of them last weekend for the conference tournament crown, so UConn would not just be playing for survival. They would be seeking revenge. That is what makes the ticket structure here so beautiful. I still have Duke advancing, because the king is absolutely capable of defending the throne and disrupting all of it before that rematch can ever be written. But if St. John's does break through and the door opens, then suddenly I am holding a very live ticket in a region that could become pure judgment and fury.
East Region Positions
UConn outright+33001u
UConn to win the East+6001u
UConn to make the Elite Eight+1701u
St. John's outright+100000.5u
St. John's to make the Elite Eight+7001u
Michigan State to make the Sweet 16-1302u
ACC Conference Tournament
Charlotte, North Carolina
Spectrum Center
March 10-14, 2026
Five-day gauntlet (Tuesday-Saturday). Top 4 seeds (Duke, Virginia, Miami, UNC) get double byes into Thursday. Seeds 5-9 have to win three in three days. Seeds 10-15 play from Tuesday.
Regular Season Recap
Duke and Virginia separated from the pack in ACC play, with Miami, North Carolina, and Clemson forming the next tier and everyone else chasing. The bracket is built around a clear top five plus mayhem pockets in the middle. Duke clearly owned the regular season but this new uptempo Virginia team (top 55 in PPG), which we have basically never seen before out of Charlottesville, gives them a real puncher's chance at blowing up the 'Duke or bust' narrative. This league is top-heavy with Duke and Virginia as the clear stallions, but there are a few mid-tier darts that can absolutely wreck brackets and boost bankrolls.
SysTom Title Favorites
Duke
29-2-310
Notes: A fucking cheat code. True national-title profile with elite efficiency on both ends and the double-bye. But not healthy, missing key guys, and focused on March Madness. Vulnerable 1 seed, but probably good enough to win without them like they did last year.
SysTom Mid-Range Snipers
Virginia
27-4+700
Notes: Not your grandpa's UVA. Actually averaged over 80 a game this year. Balanced, efficient offense with top-end defense. Can win shootouts and rock fights. Favorite 'non-Duke' team in the conference. With injuries to Duke and UNC, Virginia is live as fuck to take this thing down.
Miami
24-7+2000
Notes: Considering the draw, +2000 is looking like the best value on the board. Offense-first with real 'win the whole thing if they get hot for three days' upside. Avoids Duke on their side of the bracket. Way too much for a team who won't see Duke til the finals.
Clemson
22-9+4000
Notes: Sitting in the ABSOLUTE PERFECT SPOT for their price. Avoids Virginia and Miami. Gets a wounded duck UNC team before meeting Duke, who may also be down stars. Built to win slow, physical games. Deep enough to make a run with their defensive style against 2 injured blue bloods. Great value.
SysTom Hail Marys
NC State
20-11+5000
Big-shot, guard-driven team with classic 'hot guard run' potential. Can make a run again if they get hot, but not the same squad as 2 years ago. Will sprinkle out of loyalty but not go all in like 2024.
SMU
16-14+15000
Poor man's Miami. Fallen apart late losing 4 straight, but gives NC State 2024 vibes. Beat UNC and almost beat Duke early on. If they can reset and get hot, this team can fuck some shit up.
Tournament History
Double Byes: Duke, Virginia, Miami, North Carolina
Seeds 5-9 have to win three in three days.
Key Historical Notes
•Since 2014, 4 of the last 5 champs have been seeded 4 or worse.
•Seeds 5-9 have to win three in three days.
•ACC has the highest average seed of its champion (6.3) over the last four years.
•This league is a chaos magnet compared to tight, chalky conferences.
•Over the last 5 years, only once (last year) did the 1 seed win this tourney.
Last 5 Champions
2025
Duke
1
Notes: Committee finally gifted a classic 'best team wins' outcome in Charlotte. Came right after the NC State nuke, keeping the averages crazy.
2024
NC State
10
Notes: THE MOST PROFITABLE CALL IN MY LIFE HISTORY. Lowest seed to ever win it. Five wins in five days. Needed to win the tourney just to get into March Madness. 150:1 future that then doubled down as they scorched earth to the Final 4.
2023
Duke
2
Notes: Last relatively 'normal' year. Blue Blood, top-two seed, solid path, wire-to-wire favorite type run.
2022
Virginia Tech
7
Notes: Needed a buzzer beater to stay alive, then mowed down the 2, 3, and 1 seeds in order. Proved 'four games in four nights' is on the table if the shooting gods cooperate.
2021
Georgia Tech
4
Notes: First red flag that this league was breaking away from '1 vs 2 on Sunday.' 4Deep rode Jose Alvarado to the finish line, also cashing a huge tourney MVP prop.
Team Cliff Notes
1
Duke
-310
Strengths: A fucking cheat code. True national-title profile with elite efficiency on both ends and the double-bye. Path is basically 'don't get bored' and they're live to roll everyone by double digits. Led the ACC in scoring margin at +20.5 while allowing just 62.5 PPG.
Weaknesses: Not healthy and will most likely be missing key guys, making them a vulnerable 1 seed. Focused on March Madness, not this tournament. The only real weakness when healthy is running into a super-physical, offensive-rebounding team that can get them in foul trouble and shorten the rotation.
Notes: Last year it helped them in March Madness playing their whole conf tourney getting secondary players run. Could be the same situation this year. Duke is probably good enough to win without their injured guys like they did last year, but we don't know how long the injuries last.
2
Virginia
+700
Strengths: Not your grandpa's UVA, ranking top 20% in a bunch of offensive categories for the first time. Actually averaged over 80 a game this year. Balanced, efficient offense and top-end defense means they can win both shootouts and rock fights and are built to close late. Thrives in the cracker factor department. With injuries to Duke and UNC, Virginia is live as fuck.
Weaknesses: Can be had by athletic, turnover-creating guards who blow up their sets and force them into ugly, end-of-clock jumpers.
Notes: This is my favorite 'non-Duke' team in the conference. With the injuries to Duke and UNC in the tourney, Virginia is live as fuck here to take this thing down.
3
Miami
+2000
Strengths: Offense-first with high-end scoring efficiency and shooting. Real 'win the whole thing if they get hot for three days' upside. Avoids Duke on their side of the bracket, which is their biggest edge.
Weaknesses: More average defense that can get bullied at the rim. Physical, downhill attacks that live in the paint and at the line are the bad draw.
Notes: Considering the draw, +2000 is looking like the best value on the board. Way too much for a team who won't see Duke til the finals.
4
North Carolina
+2500
Strengths: N/A. Not favored even when healthy.
Weaknesses: Lost one of the best players in the country. If they beat Clemson, Duke will skull fuck them.
Notes: ZERO value here. This is actually more of a Clemson write-up. On this side of the bracket, Clemson getting UNC before a faceoff with Duke (also down stars) makes Clemson at +4000 very sexy.
5
Clemson
+4000
Strengths: Sitting in the ABSOLUTE PERFECT SPOT for their price. Avoids Virginia and Miami. Gets a wounded duck UNC team before meeting Duke. Built to win slow, physical games with a legit stingy defense and workmanlike offense. Perfect for covering as a dog and dragging favorites into the mud. Deep enough to make a deep run with their defensive style. Facing 2 injured blue bloods.
Weaknesses: If forced into an up-tempo, shot-trading track meet, they don't have enough offensive gear to keep up with true gunslingers. ACC tourney woes of years past.
Notes: I would actually rather play Duke BEFORE the finals because they may rush a guy back for the title game but I don't foresee them doing that in the semis. Great value if they can shake their ACC tourney woes.
6
Louisville
+1300
Strengths: Classic 'which team shows up' squad that bombs away and can hang 90 on anyone. Extremely live as a short dog or plus-money future.
Weaknesses: Can get run over inside and don't always get stops. Strong post teams and high free-throw-rate opponents are land mines.
Notes: DESPISE their draw: potentially SMU, then Miami, then Virginia, then Duke. That's a gauntlet from jump street. 1300 is a horrible price.
7
NC State
+5000
Strengths: Big-shot, guard-driven team that leans on threes and great turnover margin. Pure 'guard goes nuclear' upset equity. Volume shooting with the league's best turnover margin and assist/turnover ratio.
Weaknesses: If the jumpers don't fall or someone runs them off the line, the defense isn't good enough to drag them through a brick-fest. Not the same squad as 2 years ago.
Notes: Can make a run again if they get hot. Will sprinkle on them but not go all in like 2024.
8
Florida State
+13000
Strengths: Built on length, pressure, and shot-blocking. Defense is better than the offense and can really bother favorites on short prep.
Weaknesses: Half-court scoring and shooting are a disaster. Long droughts kill them. Shoot 32% from three as a team. Going to be involved in a lot of three-point shootouts since they love to chuck and struggle on D vs the three, but they'll have a clunker and get knocked out.
Notes: Will have a clunker and get knocked out.
9
California
+30000
Strengths: Clean underdog profile: efficient offense, good free-throw and three-point shooting. Exactly what you want from an 8/9 seed trying to punch up. Leads the league in free throw percentage which is HUGE in conference tourney games. Had an irregular travel schedule all year and now gets to stay in one place for a week, which is a sneaky edge.
Weaknesses: Vulnerable on the glass and in rim protection. Big, physical frontcourts that live off second-chances can grind them into dust.
Notes: Interesting sneaky edge with the travel situation but not a futures play.
10
Stanford
+30000
Strengths: Has a true scoring sicko who can steal a game on his own. Ending the season strong with 4 straight wins. Gets to stay in one spot after traveling like crazy all year on the West Coast.
Weaknesses: Middling overall team with slightly above-average offense and meh defense. Very top heavy.
Notes: DO NOT BE SHOCKED if Ebuka nukes and carries these guys deep. We've had a lot of betting success with Stanford this year.
11
SMU
+15000
Strengths: Poor man's Miami: top-side offense, bottom-side defense, and pace that turns every game into a high-variance shootout. Can rip off two wins if they see soft defenses. Beat UNC and almost beat Duke early on. Gives NC State 2024 vibes.
Weaknesses: Any opponent that can slow tempo and score efficiently will expose every leak. Fallen apart late, losing 4 straight.
Notes: If they can reset and get hot, this team can fuck some shit up.
12
Virginia Tech
+30000
Strengths: Solid shooting, spacing the floor, knocking down enough threes to scare anyone as a Tuesday/Wednesday underdog.
Weaknesses: 'Solid shooting, average everything else' zone. When teams switch and stay home on shooters, average athleticism and lack of elite size really shows up.
Notes: Underdog only. Not a futures play.
13
Wake Forest
+80000
Strengths: Mayhem in a gold jersey. Built to stun a sloppy favorite. Can turn a game into a circus and win a game or two.
Weaknesses: Offense is erratic, defense is leaky. Rarely strings together 40 clean minutes twice. Cannot guard the paint.
Notes: Best path is as a dog in an up-tempo, turnover-heavy game.
14
Syracuse
+80000
Strengths: Still leans on zone and perimeter scoring. Can absolutely pop one upset if an opponent forgets how to shoot from the arc.
Weaknesses: The zone isn't what it used to be. Good scouting plus offensive rebounding will break them over 40 minutes.
Notes: One upset potential at best.
15
Pittsburgh
+80000
Strengths: Grind-you-down team leaning on physicality and pace control to keep games ugly. Upside as a big dog in a low-possession rock fight.
Weaknesses: Below-average offense and just-okay defense. Low ceiling. If forced to trade buckets with a competent attack, they're cooked.
Notes: Not going anywhere.
Conference Futures
Our Bets
Virginia+7001.0u
Miami+20000.5u
Clemson+40000.5u
NC State+50000.5u
SMU+150000.1u
Big Ten Conference Tournament
Chicago, Illinois
United Center
March 10-15, 2026
18-team field. Five-day gauntlet. Top 8 seeds get double byes to the quarterfinals (Thursday). Seeds 9-14 play second round (Wednesday). Seeds 15-18 play first round (Tuesday). Semifinals Friday. Championship Saturday on CBS.
Regular Season Recap
Michigan, Nebraska, Illinois and Michigan State separated from the pack in Big Ten play, with Wisconsin and Purdue hanging around as the next tier while everyone else did classic Big Ten shit: beating each other up in 61-58 rock fights and pretending it means they're 'battle tested' instead of just tired. Michigan is by far the best team in this conference and it's not even close. They look like a full-blown powerhouse that should absolutely run away with this thing, and somehow even money on them doesn't feel insane. The top half of the bracket is a straight gauntlet: Michigan, Illinois, a scorching-hot Ohio State, Wisconsin, and always-dangerous Iowa. The bottom half is where the value sits: Purdue (who literally chokes every year), Michigan State, Nebraska, UCLA, and assorted misfits, with no Michigan or Illinois until the final.
SysTom Title Favorites
Michigan
27-4+105
Notes: By far the best team in this conference and it's not even close. The bully of this league with the athletes, the size, and the shooting. Should absolutely run away with this thing. Even money doesn't feel insane.
Illinois
23-8+400
Notes: Dangerous but dealing with an injury that knocks a chunk off their ceiling. +400 for a team who will face Michigan in the semis is a complete waste of money. Respect them, don't bet them.
Michigan State
23-8+700
Notes: Classic Izzo team: physical, mean, and built for March fistfights. On the softer side of the bracket away from Michigan and Illinois. Makes way more sense than the overhyped brands, but I'm just not a big Sparty guy.
Purdue
21-10+700
Notes: Has all the numbers, the size, and the same story every year. They choke every damn March and are already shitting the bed late this season. As a futures ticket, automatic 'hell no.'
SysTom Mid-Range Snipers
Nebraska
23-8+1200
Notes: That grown-man, no-nonsense squad nobody talks about until you look up and they're up double digits on Friday. Tough as hell, don't beat themselves, and sitting on the right side of the bracket away from Michigan and Illinois. Great value.
UCLA
21-10+4000
Notes: Quietly dangerous with five double-figure scorers and an elite playmaking point guard. Dominant at home but atrocious on the road, which is concerning for a neutral-site tournament. On the softer side of the bracket with a double-bye. If the road woes don't follow them to Chicago, they could be a sneaky problem.
SysTom Hail Marys
Iowa
18-13+8000
The annual gritty-white-boy circus with elite cracker factor. This year they actually have a MUCH BETTER defense than usual, allowing only 65 PPG (best in the Big Ten), but the offense took a step back. This team just fights and knows how to win. Whenever you can get Iowa at +8000 you gotta sprinkle it.
Wisconsin
22-9+2700
Not who you think they are this year. Normally slow and annoying, but this year they've been putting up points, including a 97-93 shootout win over Purdue to end the season. Got that cracker factor. +2700 is interesting even though they're in the tough side of the bracket.
Seeds 9-14 play Wednesday. Seeds 15-18 play Tuesday.
Key Historical Notes
•The last 5 Big Ten tournaments have been fairly chalky, outside of Iowa stealing the title as a 5 seed in 2022.
•This conference has been a factory for high seeds and KenPom darlings that choke in March.
•We care way more about path, rest and guard play in Chicago than the hype videos they ran all winter.
Bracket Analysis
Top Half
Straight gauntlet: Michigan, Illinois, a scorching-hot Ohio State, Wisconsin, and always-dangerous Iowa. Murderers' row where everyone is beating the hell out of each other just to get to Saturday.
Bottom Half
Where the value sits: Purdue (who literally chokes every year), Michigan State, Nebraska, UCLA, and assorted misfits, with no Michigan or Illinois until the final.
Last 5 Champions
2025
Michigan
3
Notes: Wolverines took it from the 3 seed.
2024
Illinois
2
Notes: Fighting Illini won from the 2 line.
2023
Purdue
1
Notes: Boilermakers took it as the 1 seed.
2022
Iowa
5
Notes: Hawkeyes stole the title as the 5 seed. We fuckin nailed it.
2021
Illinois
2
Notes: Fighting Illini took it from the 2 line.
Team Cliff Notes
1
Michigan
+105
Strengths: The bully of this league. They've got the athletes, the size, the shooting, and if this thing stays anywhere near their tempo they should absolutely run away with it. By far the best team in the conference and it's not even close. Double-bye.
Weaknesses: The only real way to beat them is to drag them into a slow, whistle-heavy rock fight, get them in foul trouble and force role players to win a half-court slog. Anything else and you're just standing in front of a train.
Notes: Michigan around even money is still playable because they're that much better. One of my favorite bets of the entire season.
2
Nebraska
+1200
Strengths: That grown-man, no-nonsense squad nobody talks about until you look up and they're up double digits on Friday. Tough as hell, don't beat themselves. Sitting on the right side of the bracket away from Michigan and Illinois until the final, which is exactly what we want at a decent number. Double-bye.
Weaknesses: Not as sexy as Michigan. Doesn't have the same ceiling or firepower. Can be ground down by elite athletes who can match their physicality.
Notes: At their price on the softer side of the bracket, they make way more sense than some of the overhyped brands that have to go through Michigan and Illinois just to get a shot at Sunday.
3
Michigan State
+700
Strengths: Classic Izzo team: physical, mean, and built for March fistfights, not January highlight reels. They'll absolutely drag you into a 40-minute car crash. On the softer side of the bracket away from Michigan and Illinois. Double-bye.
Weaknesses: Not enough offensive firepower to outscore elite teams. Relies on grinding and physicality, which can backfire against teams with superior guard play.
Notes: At their price on the softer side of the bracket, they make way more sense than the overhyped brands. But I'm just not a big Sparty guy.
4
Illinois
+400
Strengths: When they're right they can absolutely beat any team in the nation. Dangerous, talented, and well-coached. Double-bye.
Weaknesses: Dealing with an injury that knocks a chunk off their ceiling. On the Michigan side of the bracket, meaning they face Michigan in the semis. That's a death sentence at this price.
Notes: +400 for a team who will face Michigan in the semis is FUCKING RETARDED. Between the injury issues and the side of the bracket, this is more of a 'respect them' team than a 'bet them' team. Sticking them at a short number while asking them to survive a gauntlet with Michigan, a hot Ohio State, Wisconsin and Iowa is insane. That +400 range is a straight tax on the logo.
5
Wisconsin
+2700
Strengths: Not who you think they are this year. Normally slow, annoying, and absolutely thrilled to win 58-55, but this year they've actually been putting up points, including a 97-93 shootout win over Purdue to end the season. Fantastic as a dog and in ugly matchups, but can also gun with the big guys this year. Got that cracker factor. Double-bye.
Weaknesses: On the tough side of the bracket with Michigan, Illinois, Ohio State, and Iowa. That's a murderers' row just to get to Saturday.
Notes: +2700 is interesting even though they are in the tough side of the bracket.
6
UCLA
+4000
Strengths: Quietly dangerous with five double-figure scorers and an elite playmaking point guard who is one of the best facilitators in the country. 28th in KenPom with elite offensive efficiency (49th nationally). Dominant at home at 16-1, including wins over top-10 ranked Purdue, Illinois, and Nebraska. On the softer side of the bracket away from Michigan and Illinois. Double-bye. Rallied from 23 down to beat Illinois in overtime, so they've shown they can compete with the best in the conference when locked in.
Weaknesses: 3-9 on the road is atrocious and one of the worst road records among tournament-caliber teams. The defense is middle of the pack (171st nationally in adjusted D). In a neutral-site tournament, the road woes are the major concern. If that home/road split follows them to Chicago, they're one-and-done.
Notes: The talent is there and the bracket position is favorable, but that 3-9 road record is terrifying for a neutral-site tournament. If the road woes don't travel to Chicago, UCLA could be a real problem on the bottom half. Worth monitoring but a risky futures play.
7
Purdue
+700
Strengths: Has all the numbers, the size, and the same story every year. On paper they can absolutely beat anyone in this league. Double-bye.
Weaknesses: They choke every damn March (except when they have a 9 foot tall asian at center and the refs cheat for them) and are already shitting the bed late this season.
Notes: A team I'll maybe back in a single matchup if the line is off, but as a futures ticket they're an automatic 'hell no.'
8
Ohio State
+10000
Strengths: Coming in hot as hell and fits the exact 'nobody wants to see them right now' mold. When they're rolling, they look like a top-tier team, not a mid seed. Double-bye.
Weaknesses: Lives in the top-half blender with Michigan, Illinois, Wisconsin and Iowa. Asking them to run that gauntlet for a title is asking for a heart attack.
Notes: Love them for one or two upset plays, but asking them to run that gauntlet for a title is asking for a heart attack.
9
Iowa
+8000
Strengths: The annual gritty-white-boy circus that I would put a future on every year even if their whole starting lineup was hurt, cause they have that dawg in them. This year they actually have a MUCH BETTER defense than usual, allowing only 65 PPG which is best in the Big Ten. This team just fights and knows how to win. Elite cracker factor.
Weaknesses: The offense took a step back from years past. On the tough side of the bracket. 10-10 in conference play tells you they're inconsistent.
Notes: Whenever you can get Iowa at +8000 you gotta sprinkle it.
10
Indiana
+20000
Strengths: Has just enough talent to sucker you in. On the right night they look like they belong with the big boys.
Weaknesses: Just enough chaos to blow up your ticket at the worst possible time. On the wrong night they're out there throwing the ball into the third row and bricking free throws.
Notes: I can't get this fucking team right ever, so fuck em I'm out.
11
Minnesota
+30000
Strengths: Plays like a team that knows they're not as talented and doesn't care. They scrap, they rebound, they hang around, and they're a pain in the ass as a big dog.
Weaknesses: Eventually somebody has to make real shots, and when they have to create offense late instead of just grinding, the wheels tend to come off.
Notes: Can sneak a win or 2 out but not going on a run.
12
Washington
+30000
Strengths: Brings some West Coast juice into a Midwest bar fight, which can catch a lazy favorite completely off guard for one game.
Weaknesses: Over a few days the lack of true Big Ten meat on the bones shows up. Can get muscled on the glass and worn down by teams that live at the rim and the stripe.
Notes: The West Coast flash is sexy, until it gets its fudge packed by the Midwest meat.
13
USC
+30000
Strengths: Pure chaos energy. They've got guards who can go nuts for stretches.
Weaknesses: Then they look like they don't know what sport they're playing 3 minutes later. Once the game slows down and every trip matters, they're dead.
Notes: A fucking basketcase. I don't think they win a game.
14
Rutgers
+50000
Strengths: Nothing meaningful.
Weaknesses: Everything.
Notes: Rutgers sucks.
15
Northwestern
+50000
Strengths: Usually smart, well-coached, and just annoying enough to ruin one favorite's week with a flurry of threes and charges.
Weaknesses: This year is not that year.
Notes: Not this year.
17
Maryland
+50000
Strengths: Usually a team that can beat anyone or lose to anyone.
Weaknesses: This is not the same Maryland. They have no chance this year.
Notes: Not the same Maryland. No chance.
Futures Bets
Conference Tournament Futures
Michigan+1055.0u
Nebraska+12000.5u
Iowa+80000.25u
Wisconsin+27000.25u
CUSA Conference Tournament
Huntsville, Alabama
Propst Arena (Von Braun Center)
March 10-14, 2026
10 teams qualify. Top 6 seeds get byes to quarterfinals (Wednesday/Thursday). Seeds 7-10 play first-round games Tuesday. Semifinals Friday. Championship Saturday.
Regular Season Recap
Liberty and Sam Houston are co-favorites around +260 each with Western Kentucky short at +500. Liberty has the track record (defending champs), Sam Houston has the Vegas love (most books have them as the favorite), and WKU is the sharps' darling. It's a three-horse race at the top, but Liberty's shooting metrics are so absurd that they separate from the pack if the ball goes in the hoop. Only 10 of the 12 CUSA teams qualify for the tournament. Liberty's side gets the FIU/Missouri State winner, then faces the La Tech/MTSU winner in the semis. Sam Houston's side gets the Jax State/NM State winner, then faces the WKU/Kennesaw winner in the semis.
SysTom Title Favorites
Liberty
25-6+260
Notes: Defending champs, 3rd most experienced team in the country, and the best shooting team in the league. Pedigree + shooting + experience is the formula that wins these things.
Sam Houston St.
21-10+250
Notes: Best KenPom team in the conference who can shoot AND rebound, a matchup nightmare on paper. But Liberty beat them twice, they're banged up, and the price is too short.
Western Kentucky
21-10+500
Notes: Teagan Moore is a bucket and the defense/rebounding is legit. But they can't shoot from three in a league where that's how you win tournaments.
SysTom Mid-Range Snipers
Louisiana Tech
18-13+1200
Notes: Best defense in the conference with big wins over the top dogs. The offense is broken, but the defense can steal games at this price. Horrible draw facing MTSU in the quarters.
SysTom Hail Marys
Middle Tennessee
17-14+2200
Riding a 5-game win streak with legit size. The winner of MTSU/La Tech can absolutely knock off Liberty. Horrible draw playing each other this early, but there's value at this price.
Tournament History
Byes: Liberty, Sam Houston St., Western Kentucky, Louisiana Tech, Middle Tennessee, Kennesaw St.
Seeds 7-10 play first-round games Tuesday.
Key Historical Notes
���Only 2 of the last 5 champs were the 1 seed (FAU in 2023, Liberty in 2025).
•Mid-seeds have a real path here. North Texas won as a 4 in 2021, UAB as a 3 in 2022, WKU as a 3 in 2024.
•This tournament has been chaotic lately.
Last 5 Champions
2025
Liberty
1
Notes: Flames took it as the top seed. Ritchie McKay's squad shot their way through the bracket.
2024
Western Kentucky
3
Notes: WKU won it from the 3 line. Another mid-seed champion.
2023
FAU
1
Notes: Dusty May's Owls dominated as the 1 and then went on a Final Four run. The tournament that launched FAU nationally.
2022
UAB
3
Notes: Blazers took it from the 3 seed. Physical, grinding run.
2021
North Texas
4
Notes: Mid-seed chaos. The Mean Green ran through the bracket from the 4 line.
Team Cliff Notes
1
Liberty
+260
Strengths: The shooting numbers are elite nationally, not just in CUSA, and when you pair that with being the 3rd most experienced roster in the entire country, you get a team that doesn't beat itself. 10-2 on the road proves they don't need home cooking. They handled Sam Houston in both meetings, which neutralizes the biggest threat in the field. AMAZING cracker factor. The experience edge is massive in a multi-day tournament where young teams tend to fade.
Weaknesses: They are one of the smallest teams in the entire country and the worst rebounding team in the conference by a country mile. That means one bad shooting night with zero second chances could end them. If a physical team pounds the glass and contests their threes, the shooting advantage disappears and they have no Plan B.
Notes: Liberty is small as fuck and can't rebound, but they are the 3rd most veteran team in the country, shoot 40% from three, and have a 60.2% EFG which is nuts. As long as they can grab ANY boards, their pedigree, experience, and shooting should carry them to the title. +260 is the pick.
2
Sam Houston St.
+260
Strengths: The most efficient two-way team in the league by the advanced numbers. They rebound better than anyone in CUSA, which gives them second chances and limits opponents. They can also shoot from deep, so they're not one-dimensional. The cover rate is best in the conference by far, meaning they've been beating the number all year.
Weaknesses: Banged up coming in, which matters in a multi-day tournament. The road record is terrible for a team that needs to win at a neutral site. They're undersized and younger than you'd want for a tourney run. Most importantly, they lost to Liberty twice, the team they'd likely have to beat in the finals.
Notes: I do not think they deserve to be the favorite here. They appear to be a matchup nightmare vs Liberty since they can shoot with them but pound them on the boards, but Liberty handled them in both meetings. No interest at this short price.
3
Western Kentucky
+500
Strengths: Second best rebounding team in the league, so they'll get extra possessions against smaller teams. The defense is solid and Moore is a legit go-to scorer, the kind of guy you need in tight tourney games. Best free throw shooting team in the conference means they close games at the line. Experienced enough to stay steady when younger teams panic.
Weaknesses: The three-point shooting and overall efficiency are near the bottom of the tournament field, and that's a fatal flaw in a conference where shooting wins titles. The offense is below average efficiency-wise. They can rebound and defend but simply can't score well enough against a team that gets hot.
Notes: Nice squad, decent value at +500, but in this league you gotta be able to shoot and they can't. Will run into a hot team at some point and lose.
4
Louisiana Tech
+1200
Strengths: Best defensive team in the conference. They suffocate opponents and make every game ugly. They also clean the glass and are one of the tallest teams nationally, giving them a real physical edge in a conference full of small teams. Won 6 of their last 9 including wins over both Sam Houston and Liberty, proving the defense travels against the best. Elite at home with a solid cover rate.
Weaknesses: The offense is broken from everywhere. Worst three-point shooting and worst free throw shooting in the entire conference. The advanced numbers confirm the offense actively hurts them. Young and haven't won away from home. If the defense has an off night, the offense can't bail them out.
Notes: The defense is legit and they've beaten the best teams in the league. At +1200, better value than MTSU even though both are good. Horrible draw for both of them facing each other in the quarters. Sprinkle small.
5
Middle Tennessee
+2200
Strengths: Five-game win streak means they're playing their best ball at the right time. One of the tallest teams in the country, which is a massive size advantage in a conference full of small teams. The offense is functional and can score in the half court. Veteran enough to handle tournament pressure.
Weaknesses: The defense is average at best, so they'll need to outscore people rather than grind them down. The advanced efficiency numbers confirm they're slightly below break-even as a team. The road record is mediocre.
Notes: Super hot coming in and the winner of La Tech/MTSU can 100% knock off Liberty. HORRIBLE draw playing La Tech early, but at +2200 there's value. Sprinkle small.
6
Kennesaw St.
+950
Strengths: Simeon Cottle is a certified bucket who can take over a game single-handedly. They dominate the glass, tied for best rebounding in the conference. One of the tallest teams nationally gives them a physical edge. They can score in bunches when Cottle is cooking.
Weaknesses: They're too young, and young teams make young mistakes in tournament settings. Worst cover rate in CUSA means they're wildly inconsistent against the spread. The defense is leaky and they struggle away from home. Three-point shooting limits their ceiling when Cottle isn't going off.
Notes: A bit too young. Cottle can go nuclear on any given night, but the inexperience and worst cover rate in the conference screams inconsistency.
7
Jacksonville St.
+3000
Strengths: Mostapha El Moutaouakkil is a legit individual scorer who can keep them in games. Second best defensive PPG in the conference means they don't give up easy buckets. Solid over rate shows they've been competitive more often than not.
Weaknesses: The offense is limited beyond El Moutaouakkil. The advanced numbers paint a below-average team overall. The road record is poor and they lack the experience to string together multiple tournament wins. Decent shooting but not enough firepower to outscore better teams.
Notes: No interest. Gets NM State in the first round and then likely Sam Houston. Not going anywhere.
8
FIU
+2200
Strengths: Corey Stephenson can go off and steal a game on his own. Decent offensive rebounding gives them some extra possessions. Solid cover rate and respectable three-point shooting mean they're not a total pushover on any given night.
Weaknesses: The advanced numbers say they're a below-average team. The defense gives up too many points and they're one of the smallest and least experienced teams in the field. 3-10 on the road is brutal for a neutral-site tournament.
Notes: No interest. Faces Missouri State first round and then Liberty. Dead on arrival.
9
Missouri St.
+3000
Strengths: Three double-figure scorers means the offense has some balance and isn't reliant on one guy. Solid over rate and cover rate suggest they've been more competitive than the seed suggests.
Weaknesses: One of the least experienced teams in the entire conference, which is a death sentence in a multi-day tournament. The defense is terrible, the road record is awful, and poor free throw shooting means they can't close tight games. The advanced numbers confirm what the eye test shows: not good enough.
Notes: No interest. First round fodder.
10
New Mexico St.
+2700
Strengths: Jemel Jones can fill it up and the over rate is actually the highest in the conference, meaning their games tend to be high-scoring affairs. If you're looking at game totals, that's worth noting.
Weaknesses: The defense is the worst in the tournament field. They're undersized, can't shoot from three, and the road record is terrible. The advanced numbers say they're a below-average team with no real path to multiple wins.
Notes: No interest in the bottom 4 playing in this conference.
Conference Futures
Our Bets
Liberty+2603.0u
Western Kentucky+5001.0u
Louisiana Tech+12000.5u
Middle Tennessee+22000.5u
Big 12 Conference Tournament
Kansas City, Missouri
T-Mobile Center
March 10-15, 2026
16-team field. Five days of violence. Top 4 seeds (Arizona, Houston, Kansas, Texas Tech) get double byes into Thursday quarterfinals. Seeds 5-8 (Iowa State, TCU, West Virginia, UCF) get single byes into Wednesday. Seeds 9-16 play first round Tuesday. Semifinals Friday. Championship Saturday.
Regular Season Recap
Arizona walked into the new-look Big 12 and immediately alpha'd the room, going 16-2 and grabbing the 1-seed like it was nothing. Houston did Houston shit at 14-4 and locked up the 2-line, while Kansas, Texas Tech and Iowa State all finished in that 12-win band that tells you how brutal this league was night-to-night. This is the deepest, nastiest bracket on the board; there are legit teams sitting on Tuesday that would be auto-buys in softer leagues. The bottom of this bracket has a lot of value to win 2-3 games, and I am WAY LOWER on Houston and Kansas than the public, so I would not be shocked if NEITHER comes out of the bottom half.
SysTom Title Favorites
Arizona
26-5+115
Notes: The big dog all year. Physical, efficient, and deep. Real argument they're the best roster in the country, not just the Big 12. Too short to bet straight but perfect as a parlay piece.
Iowa State
22-9+800
Notes: My favorite team to actually steal this tournament. They defend, they're well-coached, and KC is basically a home game. But the bracket is a war crime: Tech right away, then Arizona and Houston stacked on top. Zero cupcakes in front of them.
Houston
24-7+210
Notes: Still turns every game into a fistfight, lives on the offensive glass, and rarely gives you a clean look. But the D is not as dominant as years past. No cracker factor. Don't want anything to do with this price.
Kansas
23-8+850
Notes: Dream draw on the bottom half with no Arizona and no Iowa State. But in my opinion the most overrated team in the country. Too reliant on one guy to bail them out. Value on the number, but I hate the team.
SysTom Mid-Range Snipers
BYU
19-12+5000
Notes: Fallen off a cliff late with injuries and losing a key guy is massive. Has a stud good enough to carry them for a game or two if he gets nuclear, but dropping to the 10 seed and starting Tuesday is probably going to kill them.
Cincinnati
18-13+8000
Notes: Completely changed who they are over the last month, winning 6 of 8 and smashing Kansas by overhauling their lineup. But horrific free-throw shooting and below average from three is the kind of flaw that flips covers into bad beats in conference tournaments. Faces UCF first then immediately runs into Arizona.
SysTom Hail Marys
UCF
19-12+25000
Quiet bracket bomb. Shooting 38% from three and 75% from the line with experienced, big players is usually the fucking cheat code for Cinderella, but this bracket is a gauntlet. Starting with Cinci is a nightmare, then Arizona. If they were in the bottom half they coulda come out.
Colorado
17-14+30000
Finished quietly interesting with three wins in their last five. The two losses were a bludgeoning by Houston and a game where they were tied with Arizona mid-second half. Oklahoma State is a mess and missing pieces, so Buffs are the right side in that first-round matchup.
Tournament History
Double Byes: Arizona, Houston, Kansas, Texas Tech
Seeds 5-8 get single byes into Wednesday. Seeds 9-16 play first round Tuesday.
Key Historical Notes
•Historically this league has been a Kansas/Iowa State playground with Texas and Baylor crashing the party occasionally.
•The Houston/Arizona era is already shifting that center of gravity.
•This bracket is a minefield with real teams in the double-digits and key injuries on contender-level rosters.
Last 5 Champions
2025
Houston
1
Notes: Kelvin Sampson's squad dominated from the top line.
2024
Iowa State
2
Notes: Cyclones took it from the 2 seed.
2023
Texas
2
Notes: Longhorns won it from the 2 line.
2022
Kansas
1
Notes: Jayhawks took it as the 1 seed.
2021
Texas
3
Notes: Texas won it from the 3 line.
Team Cliff Notes
1
Arizona
+115
Strengths: Has been the big dog all year. Physical, efficient, and deep. Real argument they're the best roster in the country, not just the Big 12. Most consistent team in the league. Went 16-2 in conference and absolutely looks the part of a 1-seed nationally. Double-bye into Thursday.
Weaknesses: On the tougher side of the bracket. The issue isn't 'are they good enough?' it's 'do you really want to lay short numbers in a tough bracket?' If you bet this straight you are maxing it and making it worth the short side.
Notes: Better suited in futures parlays than as a straight bet. The price is too short to hammer straight, but they're totally fine as a parlay piece with other big boy programs that don't beat themselves.
2
Houston
+210
Strengths: Can still turn every game into a fistfight, lives on the offensive glass, and rarely gives you a clean look. Perfectly built for three games in three days. If the refs let them play, they can choke out three wins in three very ugly nights. Double-bye.
Weaknesses: The D is not as dominant as years past, although you can argue the offense is better. Rough path in terms of physical toll. No cracker factor whatsoever.
Notes: Don't want anything to do with this price. If you know me you know I always fade the teams with no cracker factor.
3
Kansas
+850
Strengths: Absolute dream draw on the bottom half: no Arizona, no Iowa State, and even the most dangerous double-digit seed hits Houston first. Has gunners who can score. The number has value given the draw.
Weaknesses: In my opinion the most overrated team in the country. Too reliant on one guy to bail them out. Not sold they can go blow-for-blow with Arizona or Houston without him having a superhero week.
Notes: Value on the number, but I hate the team. The draw is a dream but I don't think they have the juice to beat the true alphas when everything tightens up.
4
Texas Tech
+1700
Strengths: When healthy, this was one of my favorite longshot tickets in the entire country. Tough, balanced, and built to grind people down. Double-bye.
Weaknesses: Missing a key player and staring at a path of Iowa State, then Houston, then Arizona. Without him, it feels like too much to ask.
Notes: You can look at them in single-game spots, but as a 'win the whole thing' play, I'm basically out.
5
Iowa State
+800
Strengths: My favorite team to actually steal this tournament. They defend, they're well-coached, and KC is basically a home game setting. The time off after a BRUTAL end-of-season schedule should help them reset. Single bye into Wednesday.
Weaknesses: The bracket is a war crime. Tech right away (who already beat them), then Arizona and Houston stacked on top of each other if chalk holds. The sheer lack of soft spots makes this a tough climb. Faded to end the year.
Notes: Too committed to them to not go in on them now, but I wish they didn't fade to end the year. No key player missing for Tech makes that first game winnable.
6
TCU
+8000
Strengths: Athletic and nasty when locked in. Ball pressure and rim attacking can really bother a team like Kansas. Single bye into Wednesday.
Weaknesses: Decision-making is the problem. When the game speeds up too much, they can absolutely play themselves out of a win with dumb turnovers and hero ball.
Notes: Dangerous in a single-game spot against Kansas but hard to see a deep run.
7
West Virginia
+25000
Strengths: Ugly, physical, and desperate to turn every game into a 59-55 mugging. Around two-thirds of their games have lived on the under side because they grind possessions to dust. Single bye into Wednesday.
Weaknesses: Insanely whistle-dependent. If the refs let them maul people, they can steal a game or two. If not, they foul out and go home.
Notes: Can steal a game but not going on a run.
8
UCF
+25000
Strengths: Quiet bracket bomb. Shooting 38% from three and 75% from the line with experienced and big players is usually the fucking cheat code for Cinderella. Single bye into Wednesday.
Weaknesses: The bracket is a gauntlet. Starting with Cinci is a nightmare, then Arizona, Iowa State or Tech, and Houston if the bracket plays out. BLOODBATH path.
Notes: Will stab at these odds but if they were in the bottom half I think they coulda come out. The path kills the value.
9
Cincinnati
+8000
Strengths: Completely changed who they are over the last month, winning 6 of 8 and smashing Kansas by overhauling their lineup. Huge and experienced.
Weaknesses: Horrific free-throw shooting team and below average from three. That's exactly the kind of flaw that flips covers and upsets into bad beats in conference tournaments. Faces UCF first then immediately runs into Arizona.
Notes: Incredible value at the number but the free throw shooting and bracket path are terrifying.
10
BYU
+5000
Strengths: Has a stud good enough to carry them for a game or two if he gets nuclear. Worth a flier at the price.
Weaknesses: Fallen off a cliff late with injuries. Losing a key guy is massive. Goes from scary to 'hold your nose' really fast. Dropping to the 10 seed and starting on Tuesday is probably going to kill them.
Notes: Had they stayed in the top 8 maybe, top 6 definitely, but dropping to 10 is gonna probably kill them.
11
Colorado
+30000
Strengths: Finished quietly interesting. Three wins in their last five, and the two losses were a bludgeoning by Houston and a game where they were tied with Arizona mid-second half. Oklahoma State is a mess and missing pieces.
Weaknesses: Very home-reliant historically. Starting from Tuesday is a long road.
Notes: Buffs are the right side in the first-round matchup vs Oklahoma State. Worth a stab at these odds.
12
Arizona State
+30000
Strengths: Pure chaos. They'll fight you, make it ugly, and have enough talent to drag Baylor into the mud on Tuesday.
Weaknesses: Inconsistent. The Baylor game is going to be a bloodbath and whoever comes out won't be fresh.
Notes: More of a narrative piece than a futures play. The winner of ASU/Baylor is a tough out for Iowa State the next day.
13
Baylor
+30000
Strengths: Has enough dudes to scare you. The talent is there somewhere.
Weaknesses: The current version of this team is nowhere close to their recent title-contender builds. Inconsistent with the ASU fistfight looming right away.
Notes: More interested in using them as a narrative piece ('this winner is a tough out') than actually backing them to win multiple games.
14
Oklahoma State
+30000
Strengths: Can hang for a half on effort.
Weaknesses: Limps into KC after a rough finish and now missing key players. Against anyone competent, especially a Colorado team playing better, they're outmatched.
Notes: A fade. Colorado is the right side here.
15
Kansas State
+30000
Strengths: Nothing meaningful.
Weaknesses: Full disaster this year. Two wins in their last ten and vibes of a team that just wants this over with.
Notes: One-and-done material unless the basketball gods decide to randomly reward pain.
16
Utah
+30000
Strengths: Does everything fine.
Weaknesses: Doesn't have the size or defense to compete in this league. 1-10 on the road. So fuck that.
Notes: 1-10 on the road. Not going anywhere.
Conference Futures
Our Bets
Arizona + Michigan + Florida (Parlay)+6012.0u
Iowa State+8001.0u
BYU+50000.25u
Cincinnati+80000.25u
UCF+250000.1u
Colorado+500000.1u
American Conference Tournament
Birmingham, Alabama
Legacy Arena
March 11-15, 2026
Seeds 1-2 get byes straight to the semifinals. Seeds 3-6 get first-round byes into the quarterfinals (Thursday). Seeds 7-10 play first round (Wednesday). Semifinals Saturday. Championship Sunday. First tournament at Legacy Arena in Birmingham.
Regular Season Recap
South Florida and Tulsa separated from the pack in the American, with Wichita State a clear third and everyone else chasing. It's a three-horse race at the top, but really two for me in South Florida and Tulsa, who should meet in the final. South Florida and Wichita State get byes straight to the semifinals, which is a HUGE advantage in this format. Tulsa is arguably the best pure shooting team in the league and possibly in any mid-major conference in the country. The bottom half of the bracket features some teams that can win a game but not string together enough to take the whole thing. The first conference tournament at Legacy Arena in Birmingham.
SysTom Title Favorites
South Florida
23-8-125
Notes: A REBOUNDING MACHINE that also plays fast and puts up almost 90 a game, which is a rare and deadly combo. That rebounding-plus-pace profile can do damage not only in this league but in March. Bye to the semis means they only need two wins.
Tulsa
25-6+320
Notes: Best record in the conference with shooting metrics that are elite nationally, not just in the AAC. Best EFG, best three-point percentage, best free throw percentage. This team is a fucking PROBLEM and there's real value at this price.
Wichita State
21-10+370
Notes: The only team in the league that can bang with South Florida on the boards. Best cover rate in the conference. But unlike South Florida, I think Wichita can get knocked off. The offense is limited and the height ranking is a concern.
SysTom Mid-Range Snipers
UAB
20-11+1700
Notes: Talented team with four double-figure scorers, but they haven't won 3 games in a row since FUCKING NOVEMBER. Worst three-point shooting in the entire conference. Not betting them to string wins together now.
SysTom Hail Marys
Florida Atlantic
17-14+8000
My darling every year and NO WAY I'm not throwing a dart after all the money they made us the last 2 years. Most injured team in the conference all year and now healthy. Great draw with Temple first, then a weak North Texas before a dogfight with Tulsa. On the opposite side of the bracket from South Florida. Going to win 2 games for sure.
Tournament History
Double Byes (to Semis): South Florida, Wichita State
Seeds 3-6 get byes to quarterfinals. Seeds 7-10 play first round Wednesday.
Key Historical Notes
•Memphis is the defending champion but comes in as the 8 seed after losing 7 of 8.
���UAB won it as a 4 seed in 2024, so upsets happen.
•South Florida has never won this tournament.
•Tulsa is making a case to be the best team in the conference despite being the 3 seed.
Last 5 Champions
2025
Memphis
1
Notes: Memphis repeated as tourney champs from the top seed. Dominant run.
2024
UAB
4
Notes: The 4 seed broke through. Proved mid-seeds can win this thing.
2023
Memphis
2
Notes: Penny Hardaway's Tigers took it from the 2 line. Physical, guard-driven run.
2022
Houston
1
Notes: Houston repeated as tourney champs from the 1 seed before leaving for the Big 12.
2021
Houston
2
Notes: Houston was still in the AAC and dominated. Took the tourney and ran deep in March.
Team Cliff Notes
1
South Florida
-125
Strengths: Best KenPom Net in the AAC by a wide margin. The rebounding is the best in the conference by a mile, and when you combine that with playing fast and scoring almost 90 a game, you get a team that overwhelms opponents with volume and second chances. Four double-figure scorers means the offense isn't reliant on one guy. 9-3 on the road shows they travel well. The bye to the semis is massive, only needing two wins.
Weaknesses: The three-point shooting is mediocre, ranking 7th in the conference. The defense gives up a lot of points, so they need to outscore you rather than lock you down. They're undersized and not that experienced. If a team can somehow keep them off the glass and force a perimeter-heavy game, there's a crack. But nobody in this conference rebounds well enough to do it.
Notes: -125 odds are justified. This team will be a staple in futures parlays and I have no issue going straight on them. The bye to the semis means they only need two wins. The rebounding edge is insurmountable for most of this league.
2
Wichita State
+370
Strengths: The bye to the semis is a huge edge. Best cover rate in the conference means they've been beating the number all year. The only team that can match South Florida on the boards, which makes them a live underdog in a potential semifinal matchup. Second best defensive PPG in the conference and the defense grades out well by KenPom. Strong at home and solid on the road.
Weaknesses: The offense is limited. The shooting numbers across the board are below average, from three, from the field, and from the line. 317th in height is scary for a team that relies on physicality. When they can't grind you on the glass, they don't have enough firepower to win in other ways.
Notes: The only team that can match South Florida on the boards, but I think Wichita can get knocked off. The height ranking is scary and the offense just isn't elite enough. I like Tulsa more at a similar price.
3
Tulsa
+320
Strengths: Best record in the AAC. The shooting numbers are elite nationally, not just in this league. Best three-point percentage, best EFG, best free throw percentage, and best adjusted offensive efficiency in the conference. Four double-figure scorers who can all shoot. Strong at home and solid on the road. Getting a game in before the semis can actually be a benefit to knock the rust off.
Weaknesses: The defense is the weak link, ranking 4th in the conference. The rebounding is middle of the pack, so they can't match South Florida or Wichita on the glass. They need to outscore you rather than outmuscle you. Highest over rate in the conference means their games tend to be shootouts.
Notes: I like Tulsa more than Wichita and Vegas obviously agrees since they have lower odds to win it all even having to play an extra game. You can argue Tulsa can knock off South Florida too with their shooting, so there is real value at +320. Those metrics are stupid good.
4
UAB
+1700
Strengths: The offense grades out well and they rebound at the 3rd best clip in the conference. Four double-figure scorers means there's real talent on this roster. 10-2 on the road is one of the weirdest and best road records in the league. First-round bye gives them one fewer game to worry about.
Weaknesses: Haven't won 3 games in a row since FUCKING NOVEMBER. Worst three-point shooting in the entire conference at 27.9%. The home record is actually losing, which makes no sense paired with the road record. Mediocre KenPom Net, undersized, and not experienced enough. The inconsistency is the killer.
Notes: As much as they have talent, I am not betting them to string wins together now. A team that hasn't won 3 straight since November is not winning a conference tournament.
5
Charlotte
+8000
Strengths: 16th tallest team in the country, which is a real physical edge in this conference. Second best three-point shooting in the league and the offense grades out decently. Has legit interior size. First-round bye.
Weaknesses: The advanced numbers are mediocre, basically a break-even team. The defense is one of the worst in the conference. Poor road record and one of the least experienced teams in the field. The scoring margin is essentially zero.
Notes: Just meh. They don't jump off the page in any way. Could get knocked off by Memphis. If not, they won't make it past UAB and South Florida.
6
North Texas
+5500
Strengths: Best defensive PPG in the entire conference and the best defense by KenPom. Strong at home and the under rate tells you these games are ugly rock fights. Three guys who can score in double figures. First-round bye.
Weaknesses: The offense is anemic, second worst among tournament teams. Can't shoot from three, second worst in the conference. The EFG is terrible. Very whistle-reliant, meaning they need free throws to score, and that's a dangerous game plan in a tournament setting.
Notes: The West Virginia of this conference. Boring, nothing sexy, but can give you fits on defense. Very whistle-reliant. FAU should overpower them if healthy.
7
Florida Atlantic
+8000
Strengths: The offense grades out well and they can rebound, ranking 4th in the conference. Three talented scorers and a solid cover rate. Strong at home. Now healthy after being the most injured team in the conference all year, meaning this is not the same team you watched all season. Great draw: Temple first (who sucks), then a weak North Texas before a dogfight with Tulsa. On the opposite side of the bracket from South Florida.
Weaknesses: Least experienced team in the entire conference by far, which is normally a death sentence in tournament play. The defense is average. Poor road record and mediocre three-point shooting.
Notes: My darling every year and NO WAY I'm not throwing a dart after all the money they made us the last 2 years. Very 'Monmouth-y' where they are not the same team you watched all year. Going to win 2 games for sure, which makes them worth the value at +8000.
8
Memphis
+3500
Strengths: The defense grades out as 3rd best in the conference by KenPom. One of the most experienced teams in the field. Defending champions, so the pedigree is there. Has legit interior size.
Weaknesses: Lost 7 of 8 coming in. 13-18 overall. The road record is atrocious. The offense is broken, with terrible shooting from three and from the field. Negative scoring margin. Worst cover rate in the conference.
Notes: Usually one of my favorites, but literally lost 7 of 8 coming in. They can definitely win a game or 2 if they get hot, but no way this group can string 3-4 games together. Should beat Tulane but that may be about it.
9
Tulane
+22500
Strengths: Has a legit individual scorer who can keep them in games. One of the more experienced teams in the field. Decent free throw shooting.
Weaknesses: Dead last in the conference in both offensive and total rebounding by a mile. Can't rebound and can't shoot. The defense is poor and the advanced numbers paint a well below-average team.
Notes: Tulane sucks. Can't rebound (dead last in the conference in both ORB and TRB) and can't shoot. Memphis should handle this.
10
Temple
+22500
Strengths: Has two guys who can score and the experience is solid. Decent three-point shooting. Strong enough at home to show they have some fight.
Weaknesses: The defense is one of the worst in the field. Undersized. Lost 7 of 8 coming in. The advanced numbers say they're a below-average team. Poor road record.
Notes: Temple fucking sucks and they're coming in losing 7 of 8. FAU should handle this easily and move on.
Conference Futures
Our Bets
Tulsa+3202.0u
UAB+17000.5u
Florida Atlantic+80000.5u
Memphis+35000.1u
A10 Conference Tournament
Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
PPG Paints Arena
March 11-15, 2026
14 teams. Top 4 seeds get double byes to the quarterfinals (Friday). Seeds 5-10 get first-round byes to the second round (Thursday). Seeds 11-14 play first round (Wednesday). Semifinals Saturday. Championship Sunday on CBS (Selection Sunday). 50th anniversary edition.
Regular Season Recap
Similar to the American, this one looks like a 2-horse race by the Vegas odds, but unlike the American the top teams don't get a bye to the semis (only double byes to the quarterfinals) and there are some real dark horses lurking. Saint Louis and VCU finished as co-regular season champions at 15-3, with the Billikens claiming the 1 seed via tiebreaker. But ignore the seeding here because it is deceptive: St. Louis is playing like a 4 seed of late (lost 3 of their last 6) while VCU came in winning 12 of 13. The bracket splits matter more than the seedings in this tournament. Saint Louis' side includes Dayton, George Washington, and George Mason. VCU's side includes St. Joseph's, Davidson, and Duquesne. Only Saint Louis is projected as an NCAA Tournament lock. The championship game airs on CBS on Selection Sunday, adding even more drama.
SysTom Title Favorites
VCU
24-7+180
Notes: Won 12 of 13 coming in and has won this tournament 2 of the last 3 years. They don't do anything elite, but they're good everywhere. Young team so throw out the early season inconsistency because they are way better now. Sits on the easy side of the bracket avoiding St. Louis, Dayton, GW, and Mason.
Dayton
21-10+600
Notes: 24th most experienced team in the country, coming in on a great run after a brutal mid-season stretch. Already mopped St. Louis, who is the big dog they need to take down. Throw out the metrics because they were not the same team a month ago. +750 on DK is the BEST VALUE on the board.
Saint Louis
27-4+140
Notes: The metrics are absurd with the 2nd best three-point shooting in the entire country. But they lost 3 of their last 6 and are in terrible form. Best team on paper, worst value on the board.
SysTom Mid-Range Snipers
Saint Joseph's
21-10+1700
Notes: On a 6-game winning streak. Can board, play D, and has that Philly grit. The issue is three-point shooting, which is brutal. If they can get shots to drop, this team can be a problem for VCU on their side of the bracket.
George Washington
17-14+1700
Notes: The metrics darling of this conference. They crash the boards, take good shots, can score with anyone, and are the 25th most experienced roster in the country. If they beat Fordham they face St. Louis right away, who is NOT in good form. +2000 has a lot of value.
SysTom Hail Marys
George Mason
23-8+2000
Started 18-1 then dropped 6 of their last 9. Conference tourneys tend to serve as a reset, and knowing what they're capable of, they can make a run to the title... or they can lose Day 1. At 35:1 on DraftKings, worth a stab.
Tournament History
Double Byes: Saint Louis, VCU, Saint Joseph's, Dayton
Seeds 5-10 get first-round byes to Thursday. Seeds 11-14 play first round Wednesday.
Key Historical Notes
•3 of the last 5 champions were NOT the 1 seed.
•Richmond won it as a 6 seed in 2022 and Duquesne won it as a 6 seed in 2024.
•VCU has won 2 of the last 3.
•Saint Louis is the only projected NCAA Tournament lock.
•Championship game on Selection Sunday on CBS adds maximum drama.
Last 5 Champions
2025
VCU
1
Notes: VCU repeated from the top line. Back-to-back A10 tourney titles.
2024
Duquesne
6
Notes: Another 6 seed breaking through. The A10 tournament loves an upset.
2023
VCU
1
Notes: VCU took it as the 1 seed. Dominant run from the Rams.
2022
Richmond
6
Notes: Classic mid-major chaos. The 6 seed ran through the bracket and stole an NCAA bid.
2021
St. Bonaventure
1
Notes: Chalk run from the top seed. Clean path.
Team Cliff Notes
1
Saint Louis
+140
Strengths: Best KenPom Net in the A10 by a wide margin. Best defense in the conference by adjusted efficiency. The three-point shooting is 2nd in all of Division I, which is an absurd number, and the overall shooting efficiency is elite. Four double-figure scorers, so no one guy has to carry. One of the most experienced teams in the country. Perfect 19-0 at home. Best cover rate in the conference.
Weaknesses: Lost 3 of their last 6 including getting run off the floor by Dayton. Playing like a 4 seed of late despite being the 1 seed. On the same side of the bracket as Dayton, George Washington, and George Mason. Free throw shooting is just okay.
Notes: St. Louis at +140 to win this conference is FUCKING RETARDED considering they just got run off the floor by Dayton and lost half of their final 6 games, not in pretty fashion. Maybe the reset helps, but there is ABSOLUTELY NO VALUE on St. Louis. They are the best team, but they are in terrible form.
2
VCU
+180
Strengths: Won 12 of 13 coming in, which is the best form of anyone in the conference. Second best KenPom Net in the A10. The offense grades out well with solid shooting from three, from the field, and from the line. Strong road record. Won this tournament 2 of the last 3 years, so the pedigree is there. Sits on the easy side of the bracket avoiding St. Louis, Dayton, GW, and Mason, and really just has St. Joe's to worry about.
Weaknesses: Young team, which normally gives you pause in a tournament setting. The defense is middle of the pack. Below average cover rate. The one loss in the last 13 was to St. Louis. Doesn't do anything elite, just good everywhere.
Notes: VCU is the best team in this conference right now (form matters more than season-long metrics) and for some reason we get them at +180 compared to St. Louis at +140. +180 is short, so not super interested straight outside of a stab and futures parlays, but they are the clear pick.
3
Saint Joseph's
+1700
Strengths: On a 6-game winning streak coming in. Third best defense in the conference by adjusted efficiency and the defensive PPG is elite. They can rebound, which gives them extra possessions and limits opponents. Strong cover rate and under rate. The grit and physicality is real, a style that travels well in tournament play.
Weaknesses: The three-point shooting is brutal, second worst in the entire conference. EFG is near the bottom too. The offense is limited and ranks 9th in the conference by adjusted efficiency. They can't score enough when the defense isn't suffocating, and tournament games can turn into shootouts where that matters.
Notes: Can board, play D, and has that Philly grit. Their issue will be 3-pointers. If they can get shots to drop and get hot, this team can be a problem for VCU. On VCU's side of the bracket.
4
Dayton
+600
Strengths: 24th most experienced team in the country, which is a massive edge in a multi-game tournament. The defense grades out as 3rd best in the conference by KenPom. Strong free throw shooting. Rolled off 6 straight before a loss to VCU to close the year, so the form is great. Already mopped St. Louis recently, which is the team they'd face in the semis on their side of the bracket.
Weaknesses: Worst rebounding team in the entire conference in both offensive and total boards. That's a legitimate disaster because it means zero second chances and easy extra possessions for opponents. The offense is middle of the pack. Undersized.
Notes: Throw out the metrics. They were not the same team a month ago. Coming in on a great run after a brutal mid-season stretch and they already mopped St. Louis who is the big dog they need to take down. +750 on DK is the BEST VALUE on the board. On St. Louis' side of the bracket, which means a potential semifinal matchup with the Billikens.
5
George Mason
+2000
Strengths: Started 18-1, which shows the ceiling of this team. Third best defensive PPG in the conference. Solid experience and height rankings. Dominant at home at 17-2. Four guys who can score in double figures gives them balance.
Weaknesses: Dropped 6 of their last 9, which is the scary part. Poor road record at 4-6. The offense and defense are both middle of the pack by adjusted efficiency. Which team shows up? The juggernaut or the team that fell apart?
Notes: At 35:1 on DraftKings (compared to 22:1 on FanDuel) this is worth a stab. Conference tourneys tend to serve as a reset and knowing what they are capable of, I think they can make a run to the title... or they can lose Day 1. At 35:1, I'm in.
6
Davidson
+3000
Strengths: Second best defensive PPG in the conference and the defense grades out well by KenPom. Solid three-point shooting and overall efficiency. Three guys who can score. Strong road record at 7-4.
Weaknesses: Free throw shooting is one of the WORST in the entire nation. Haven't won 3 games in a row since the first 4 games of the year. Not experienced enough and the cover rate is poor.
Notes: I like a lot of pieces of Davidson's game, but they are off my list. They can't do two things: shoot free throws (one of the worst in the nation) and win 3 games in a row (haven't done it since the first 4 games of the year). Since you need to string together wins and hit free throws to win a tournament, I am out.
7
Duquesne
+5500
Strengths: Has a nice scoring duo at the top. The defense grades out decently. Experienced roster. Decent three-point shooting. Won this tournament as a 6 seed in 2024, so the pedigree is there.
Weaknesses: The defensive PPG is the weakest of the middle tier. Below average cover rate. Poor road record. Games tend to go over, meaning their defense can get leaky in a shootout.
Notes: Won this tournament as a 6 seed in 2024, so they have pedigree. But this year's team doesn't have the same edge. Faces Rhode Island in the second round.
8
Fordham
+20000
Strengths: Best defensive PPG in the entire conference. Best offensive rebounding in the conference. Experienced roster with three seniors who can score. Highest under rate in the A10 and solid cover rate. These games are ugly rock fights where anything can happen.
Weaknesses: Worst three-point shooting in the entire conference. The EFG is terrible. The offense is second worst among tournament teams. Essentially a break-even team by KenPom. Poor road record. The offense is brutal and the shooting is nonexistent.
Notes: Not interested. I think George Washington smacks them early. Best defense in the league but you can't score and you can't shoot, so it doesn't matter.
9
George Washington
+1700
Strengths: The offensive efficiency is elite, 3rd best in the conference. Second best EFG in the league. Strong three-point shooting. They crash the boards and are the 25th most experienced roster in the country with good height. They take good shots and can score with anyone in this conference.
Weaknesses: The defense is below average and the defensive PPG confirms it. 3-7 on the road is rough. Below average cover rate. There are games where they just don't show up defensively.
Notes: The metrics darling of this conference. If they beat Fordham they face St. Louis right away, who is NOT in good form. GW will have the advantage of playing the day before without rust. If they can get some extra effort on the defensive end this team could be a problem. +2000 has a lot of value.
10
Rhode Island
+6000
Strengths: 11th most experienced roster in the entire country, which is the kind of edge that matters when games get tight in March. Solid defensive PPG and the defense grades out well by KenPom. Four double-figure scorers gives them balance and options.
Weaknesses: Tiny at 319th in height. Can't shoot from three. The offense is below average. Poor cover rate and a losing road record. The size and shooting limitations cap their ceiling.
Notes: Experienced but way too small and can't shoot. Not a futures play.
11
Richmond
+10000
Strengths: Third best three-point shooting in the conference. Experienced roster. Won this tourney as a 6 seed in 2022, so the pedigree exists somewhere.
Weaknesses: The defense is poor. 5-12 in conference play. Terrible road record. Undersized. This is not a good basketball team.
Notes: The 2022 pedigree is nice but this team is not that team. 5-12 in conference play tells the story.
12
La Salle
+30000
Strengths: Solid offensive rebounding. Three double-figure scorers who give them some balance.
Weaknesses: 1-13 on the road. The defense is poor. Can't shoot from three. Terrible EFG. Negative scoring margin. 5-12 in conference. Brutal across the board.
Notes: 1-13 on the road. Not going anywhere.
13
St. Bonaventure
+10000
Strengths: Second best three-point shooting in the conference. Three double-figure scorers who can all shoot. High over rate means their games are shootouts where anything can happen.
Weaknesses: Tiny. 4-14 in conference. Worst defense in the A10 by adjusted efficiency. Worst cover rate in the conference. Terrible road record.
Notes: 4-14 in conference is ugly, but the three-point shooting and three guys who can score means they can pop one upset. Not a serious futures play but could give someone a scare in the first round.
14
Loyola Chicago
+30000
Strengths: Experienced roster with balanced scoring across four guys. That's about it.
Weaknesses: Worst defense in the conference by adjusted efficiency. 3-14 in conference. 1-9 on the road. Negative 10 scoring margin. Poor free throw shooting. Poor three-point shooting. Poor cover rate. Everything is bad.
Notes: 3-14 in conference and 1-9 on the road says this is a one-and-done.
Conference Futures
Our Bets
VCU+1805.0u
Dayton+6001.0u
Saint Joseph's+17000.5u
George Washington+17000.5u
George Mason+20000.5u
Big West Conference Tournament
Henderson, Nevada
Lee's Family Forum
March 11-14, 2026
8-team field. Seeds 1-2 (UCI, Hawaii) get byes straight to the semifinals. Seeds 3-8 play quarterfinals. Short tournament means even Day 1 teams only need 3 wins for the title. Byes are less valuable in a field this small.
Regular Season Recap
Only 8 teams in the Big West tournament with UC Irvine and Hawaii advancing directly to the semifinals, which is confusing since they cut out 4 teams and could easily let the whole conference play. This conference is wide open since even the Day 1 teams only need to win 3 games to get to the finals because of the short field, meaning the byes are not as valuable as they look. This is a division of pairs. UCI and Hawaii are nearly identical at the top. UCSB and UCSD sit in the mid-tier with real upset equity. CSUN and Fullerton are flawed but dangerous. UC Davis is fine but unexciting, and Cal Poly is drawing dead with youth and bad defense.
SysTom Title Favorites
UC Irvine
19-12+155
Notes: Best defense in the Big West by a wide margin. Won 10 of their final 13 coming in. Grind-you-out style with a monster in the middle. Bye to the semis but no value at this price.
Hawaii
22-8+230
Notes: Best KenPom team in the conference with the 26th tallest roster in the country. Extremely experienced with 4 seniors. But faded down the stretch going 4-3 in their last 7 and have the worst cover rate in the conference. No value.
SysTom Mid-Range Snipers
UC Santa Barbara
16-12+750
Notes: Best offense in the Big West with the best shooting metrics across the board (3P%, EFG%, FT%). Now healthy with their full squad. Won this tournament in 2021 and 2023. BEST VALUE on the board.
UC San Diego
18-10+700
Notes: Defending Big West champs. Hottest team in the conference winning 6 of their last 7. Good size, balanced, well-coached. PRIMED for a futures bet.
SysTom Hail Marys
Cal St. Northridge
19-11+1000
Rebounding monster despite being tiny, which is wild. Four seniors who can all score. But they suck from the line (worst in conference) and are bad defensively.
Cal St. Fullerton
16-14+1400
Best cover rate in the Big West despite the ugly record. Won this tourney as a 4 seed in 2022. Bad defensively and very small, but has more experience than the bottom of the field.
Tournament History
Byes (to Semis): UC Irvine, Hawaii
Seeds 3-8 play quarterfinals Wednesday. Semifinals Thursday. Championship Saturday.
Key Historical Notes
•3 of the last 5 champions were NOT the 1 seed.
•Cal St. Fullerton won as a 4 in 2022, Long Beach State as a 4 in 2024.
•UC Santa Barbara has won 2 of the last 5.
•UC San Diego is the defending champion from the 1 seed in 2025.
•This league rewards hot shooting and mid-seeds have a real path.
Last 5 Champions
2025
UC San Diego
1
Notes: Tritons took it as the 1 in their first tournament appearance as a full D1 member. Special run.
2024
Long Beach State
4
Notes: Another 4 seed breaking through. The Big West loves a mid-seed champion.
2023
UC Santa Barbara
2
Notes: Gauchos repeated from the 2 seed. Back-to-back Big West titles.
2022
Cal State Fullerton
4
Notes: 4 seed chaos. Fullerton ran the bracket and stole an NCAA bid.
2021
UC Santa Barbara
1
Notes: Gauchos took it from the top line. Clean run.
Team Cliff Notes
1
UC Irvine
+155
Strengths: Best defense in the conference by a wide margin, and it's not close. The rebounding is elite with a legit monster in the middle who changes the game on both ends. Won 10 of their final 13, so the form is there. High under rate means they grind you into the dirt and make you play their game. Bye to the semis.
Weaknesses: The offense is limited, ranking 6th in the conference. The three-point shooting is mediocre, the EFG is below average, and the free throw shooting is poor. Not experienced. If they can't grind you, they don't have a Plan B. When the defense has an off night, the offense can't bail them out.
Notes: Coming in hotter than Hawaii (10 of 13 vs 4 of 7) but the short price at +155 offers no value. Defense and rebounding will carry them, but the offense is a question mark.
2
Hawaii
+230
Strengths: Best KenPom Net in the conference. 26th tallest team nationally, so they physically bully people in a small conference. Very experienced with 4 seniors, meaning they've seen every type of game. Strong at home. Bye to the semis.
Weaknesses: Worst cover rate in the entire conference, which is a massive red flag. Started 18-5 then went 4-3 to close, so the form is going the wrong direction. The three-point shooting is mediocre. The late fade combined with the worst cover rate makes you question if this team can be trusted in a tournament setting.
Notes: No value at +230. The size and experience are real, but the late-season fade and cover rate make this a pass.
3
Cal St. Fullerton
+1400
Strengths: Best cover rate in the entire conference despite the ugly record, meaning they've been competitive against the number all year. Can score, putting up over 83 a game. Decent three-point shooting. Has some experience with three seniors. Won this tourney as a 4 seed in 2022, so the pedigree exists.
Weaknesses: One of the smallest teams in the entire country. The defense is second worst in the conference, giving up almost 83 a game. Negative KenPom Net. Not experienced enough. Poor road record. Bad defensively and very small.
Notes: Both Fullerton and CSUN suck from the line, are bad defensively, average from three, and small as fuck. But CSUN is a rebounding monster while Fullerton has a little more experience and better cover rate. Sprinkle territory.
4
Cal St. Northridge
+1000
Strengths: Best rebounding team in the conference in both offensive and total boards despite being tiny, which is genuinely impressive. Four seniors who can all score gives them experience and balance. The rebounding edge is real and can create extra possessions against anyone.
Weaknesses: Worst free throw shooting in the conference, which is a tournament killer when games get tight. The defense is bad, giving up almost 80 a game. Below average cover rate. The FT shooting and defense will kill them eventually.
Notes: Same tier as Fullerton. Rebounding edge is real but the FT shooting and defense will kill them eventually. At +1000 there's some value if they catch a cold-shooting opponent early.
5
UC San Diego
+700
Strengths: Defending Big West champs, so the pedigree and confidence are there. Hottest team in the conference winning 6 of their last 7. Third best KenPom Net in the conference. Solid defense with the 3rd best defensive PPG. 52nd tallest nationally gives them a physical edge. Good three-point shooting and EFG. Strong road record at 8-5. High under rate means their games stay tight.
Weaknesses: Not experienced, which is normally a concern in tournament play. The offensive rebounding is below average compared to the top of the conference. The rebounding gap against UCI and Hawaii could be the difference in a semifinal matchup.
Notes: Defending champs, hot form, good size. PRIMED for a futures bet at +700. One of the mid-tier pair that should be targeted.
6
UC Davis
+2000
Strengths: The offense is decent. Solid three-point shooting and free throw shooting. Above average cover rate. Strong at home.
Weaknesses: Tiny at 299th in height. Not experienced enough. The defense is middling. Positive but unremarkable KenPom Net. Poor road record. Nothing about this team excites me or jumps off the page.
Notes: Just kinda fine everywhere. Nothing excites me. Drawing dead.
7
UC Santa Barbara
+750
Strengths: Best offense in the entire conference by KenPom. Best three-point shooting, best EFG, and best free throw shooting in the Big West, meaning they are the most efficient scoring team in the league from everywhere on the floor. Four double-figure scorers gives them balance and multiple guys who can take over. Good size. Now healthy with their full squad, which changes everything. Won this tournament in 2021 and 2023, so the pedigree is elite.
Weaknesses: The defense is the weak link, ranking 5th in the conference. Poor road record. Not super experienced. If the shots aren't falling and the defense can't hold, they're in trouble.
Notes: BEST VALUE on the board now that they are healthy and have their full squad. The shooting metrics are the best in the conference across the board. Tournament pedigree with two titles in the last 5 years. At +750 this is the mid-tier sniper play.
8
Cal Poly
+3500
Strengths: Has a legit 20-point scorer who can take over a game on his own. Three guys who can fill it up. Good free throw shooting. Some size at 126th tallest nationally.
Weaknesses: One of the youngest teams in the entire country. Worst defense in the conference by a mile, giving up 85 a game, almost 3 more than anyone else. Negative KenPom Net. Negative scoring margin. Terrible road record. The combo of insanely young guys who play horrific defense is disastrous in tournament play.
Notes: Deadly combo of insanely young guys who play horrific defense, which is disastrous in tournament play. Drawing dead.
Conference Futures
Our Bets
UC Irvine+1551.0u
UC Santa Barbara+7501.0u
UC San Diego+7000.5u
Cal St. Northridge+10000.5u
Cal St. Fullerton+14000.5u
Big East Conference Tournament
New York City
Madison Square Garden
March 11-14, 2026
Top 5 seeds get first-round byes into the quarterfinals (Thursday). Seeds 6-11 play first round (Wednesday). Semifinals Friday. Championship Saturday. All games at Madison Square Garden.
Regular Season Recap
This is a very top-heavy league. St. John's and UConn separated from the pack, with Villanova a clear third and everyone else chasing. I would be shocked if this doesn't end up being a St. John's vs UConn final. The tournament is at Madison Square Garden for the 44th straight year, which gives St. John's a massive home-court advantage as the local team. Only three teams (St. John's, UConn, Villanova) are currently projected as NCAA Tournament locks. Seton Hall is on the bubble and needs a strong showing. The bracket is built for two semifinal lanes: St. John's side (Butler/Providence winner, then the Creighton/Seton Hall winner) and UConn side (Marquette/Xavier winner, then the DePaul/Georgetown winner joining Villanova).
SysTom Title Favorites
St. John's
25-6+190
Notes: Defending Big East tourney champs and outright regular-season champs playing in their building at MSG. This team grinds, dominates the glass, and has a massive home-court and coaching edge on everyone except UConn. 9-1 on the road is insane for a Big East team.
UConn
27-4-115
Notes: Best KenPom Net in the Big East by 5 points. Tall, experienced, efficient with five double-figure scorers. But something is off this year. The cover rate is second worst in the conference and they just got upset by Marquette. UConn at -115 as the favorite is wrong. It should be +200.
SysTom Mid-Range Snipers
Villanova
24-7+700
Notes: Best cover rate in the entire Big East. Won 7 of their last 9. Does all the little shit right. But the 2 losses were to UConn and St. John's by a combined 42 points, so they're safe but don't have what it takes against the top two.
Creighton
15-16+5000
Notes: Can sling it from three and don't miss free throws. IF they get past Seton Hall, they are sneaky to upset St. John's because of their fundamentals and efficiency against a Johnnies team that can be undisciplined. But worst cover rate in the conference and worst rebounding.
SysTom Hail Marys
Marquette
12-19+6500
The record is ugly, but I've been betting them a lot late. Just knocked off UConn and played St. John's to the wire. The winner of Marquette/Xavier is a dark horse to make a run on UConn's side.
Xavier
14-17+20000
Led the Big East in three-point shooting but has the worst defense in the entire league. Every game is a track meet. 20th tallest team in the country. If the shots are falling they can beat anyone for one game.
Tournament History
First-Round Byes: St. John's, UConn, Villanova, Seton Hall, Creighton
Seeds 6-11 play first round Wednesday. Quarterfinals Thursday. Semifinals Friday. Championship Saturday.
Key Historical Notes
•The Big East Tournament has been at MSG for 44 straight years.
•St. John's has a massive home-court edge as the local team.
•Only three teams are projected NCAA Tournament locks (St. John's, UConn, Villanova).
•Seton Hall is on the bubble and needs a run.
•Georgetown won it as an 8 seed in 2021, proving chaos can happen here.
Last 5 Champions
2025
St. John's
1
Notes: The Johnnies won it in their building. Rick Pitino's squad owned the Garden.
2024
UConn
1
Notes: Hurley's Huskies dominated as the 1 seed on the way to back-to-back national titles.
2023
Marquette
1
Notes: Shaka Smart's Golden Eagles took it as the top seed. Clean path.
2022
Villanova
2
Notes: Nova took it as the 2 seed in a solid, workmanlike tournament. Classic Villanova efficiency run.
2021
Georgetown
8
Notes: The ultimate chaos run. Patrick Ewing's squad came out of nowhere as the 8 seed and shocked everyone.
Team Cliff Notes
1
St. John's
+190
Strengths: Defending Big East tourney champs playing in their building at MSG. Outright regular-season champs at 18-2 in conference. The defense is elite by adjusted efficiency. Best offensive rebounding in the Big East, which creates second chances and suffocates opponents. 9-1 on the road is insane for a Big East team. Strong cover rate. High under rate means they grind you. Very experienced. Rick Pitino coaching in the Garden gives them a massive home-court and coaching edge on everyone except UConn.
Weaknesses: The three-point shooting is 6th in the conference and the EFG is 8th. Not an elite shooting team. Can be undisciplined at times and go full retard on offense. Got beat the shit out of by UConn earlier this year. The offense relies more on physicality and grinding than pure shooting. Free throw shooting is mediocre.
Notes: St. John's in the Garden should be the favorite. I will be at most of these games courtside willing this home. The Butler/Providence winner won't scare them. The real test is if Creighton's efficiency and shooting catch them on an undisciplined night. Should see UConn in the final.
2
UConn
-115
Strengths: Best KenPom Net in the Big East by a wide margin. Best EFG in the league. Second best three-point shooting. Elite defense by adjusted efficiency. Five double-figure scorers. 29th tallest and 22nd most experienced team in the country. One of the best coaches in the country who travels well to the Garden. Beat the shit out of St. John's earlier this year.
Weaknesses: Second worst cover rate in the entire Big East, which is a massive red flag for a team this talented. Something is off this year. They are tall, experienced, and shoot a high percentage from three, but they aren't scary like they have been. The coach has been whipping this team all year begging them to bring that dawg out, but it hasn't been working. Got upset by Marquette in the regular-season finale.
Notes: UConn at -115 as the favorite is wrong. It should be +200. Everyone is going to point back to the St. John's blowout, but that was a complete outlier game (and I think a good loss for the Johnnies in retrospect because they will be PISSED). They are a great all-around team, but I don't know if they have that dawg in them this year. Don't be shocked if Marquette or Xavier gets hot and knocks them off in their first game.
3
Villanova
+700
Strengths: Best cover rate in the entire Big East. Strong KenPom Net. The offense grades out well with solid three-point shooting. Strong road record at 9-3. Won 7 of their last 9. Has exceeded expectations in the coach's first year. Balanced four-headed scoring attack. Does all the little shit right and makes you make mistakes.
Weaknesses: The 2 losses in the last 9 were to UConn and St. John's by a combined 42 points. They are safe but don't have what it takes against the top two when it matters. The defense is just okay. Not tall enough. Not enough firepower to hang in a shootout with the top dogs.
Notes: Exactly what Villanova always is. Not sexy, but a live dog vs UConn or the Johnnies who have moments where they lose discipline. Worth respecting but not betting on to win the whole thing.
4
Seton Hall
+1700
Strengths: Best defensive PPG in the entire Big East. The defense by adjusted efficiency is basically tied with UConn for the best in the league. 15th most experienced team in the country. Strong cover rate. High under rate means every game is a rock fight. First-round bye, plays Creighton in the quarters.
Weaknesses: 341st in height, which is going to be a MASSIVE problem in this tournament. Worst three-point shooting in the Big East. Worst EFG in the Big East. Second lowest scoring team in the conference. The offense has a painfully low ceiling. Can't shoot, can't score, can't get big.
Notes: The defense is elite but 341st in height is going to be a problem against St. John's who are bigger and better across the board. No path.
5
Creighton
+5000
Strengths: Solid three-point shooting. Second best free throw shooting in the conference, so they close games at the line. Good EFG. Decent size at 62nd tallest. Can sling it from deep and don't miss free throws. Plays Seton Hall first, which is a favorable matchup for a shooting team.
Weaknesses: Worst cover rate in the entire conference. Worst offensive rebounding in the Big East, meaning zero second chances. 15-16 overall. Terrible road record. The defense is bottom half. They just don't have that perennial Creighton firepower this year.
Notes: IF they get by Seton Hall, they are sneaky to upset St. John's because of their fundamentals, efficiency, and shooting against a Johnnies team that can go full retard on offense sometimes. The matchup of Creighton's discipline vs St. John's physicality is interesting. But envisioning a deep run is hard.
6
DePaul
+10000
Strengths: Second best cover rate in the Big East. Solid defense by adjusted efficiency and 3rd best defensive PPG in the conference. High under rate. Four double-figure scorers, all experienced. These games are ugly rock fights where anything can happen.
Weaknesses: The offense is second worst in the Big East by adjusted efficiency. Scoring is limited. Can't shoot from three. Poor road record. Not enough firepower to keep up with the top teams.
Notes: Georgetown is a lame duck coming in so DePaul should outhustle them in the opener. After that they'd face Villanova, which is a tough draw. Not going anywhere but will cover.
7
Marquette
+6500
Strengths: Just knocked off UConn in their final game. Played St. John's to the wire. Three double-figure scorers. High under rate means games stay close and anything can happen.
Weaknesses: 12-19 overall. 2-10 on the road. One of the youngest teams in the conference. Can't shoot from three. Worst free throw shooting in the entire Big East, which kills you in close tournament games. Poor cover rate. Negative scoring margin. The record is ugly and the shooting numbers are a mess.
Notes: This is a team I have been betting a lot late and they just proved they can beat UConn. Gets Xavier first and that is a dangerous spot since Xavier can light it up. The winner of Marquette/Xavier is a dark horse to make a run on UConn's side. Will sprinkle on both.
8
Butler
+10000
Strengths: Has a strong scoring duo that can carry them. Solid offensive rebounding and total rebounding. Decent size and experience. Above average cover rate.
Weaknesses: The defense is suspect. Poor three-point shooting. Terrible road record. Has been in turmoil and dealt with injuries.
Notes: Providence vs Butler is an interesting opening round matchup but the winner will get smacked by St. John's. Butler should steal this game vs Providence but this can go either way. Neither are going anywhere.
9
Providence
+6500
Strengths: 3rd best offense in the Big East by adjusted efficiency. Highest scoring team in the entire conference at almost 87 a game. Three guys who can go off. Good free throw shooting. Solid three-point shooting. Second highest over rate in the conference means every game is a shootout. Strong cover rate.
Weaknesses: Worst defense in the entire Big East by adjusted efficiency. Worst defensive PPG in the conference by a mile. Terrible road record. Every Providence game is a shootout and the defense can't stop anyone.
Notes: The highest-scoring team in the league but also allows the most points. Interesting team that will give you a fun watch but not going anywhere in this bracket. The winner of the Butler matchup gets St. John's and that's the end of the road.
10
Xavier
+20000
Strengths: Best three-point shooting in the entire Big East. 20th tallest team in the country. 43rd in experience. Highest over rate in the conference means every game is a track meet. Can absolutely light it up from deep. The size and experience are real.
Weaknesses: Worst defense in the Big East by adjusted efficiency. Worst defensive PPG. 1-10 on the road. Negative scoring margin. The defense is atrocious. Every game is a track meet and they need the shots to fall or they're cooked.
Notes: Led the Big East in three-point shooting but is the worst defense in the league. If the shots are falling they can beat anyone for one game. The Marquette/Xavier winner is a dark horse. Will sprinkle.
11
Georgetown
+10000
Strengths: Some individual pieces with size. 54th tallest nationally.
Weaknesses: Lost their best player. Poor cover rate. Terrible road record. The defense is below average. Can't shoot from three. This team has quit.
Notes: Georgetown is a lame duck. Lost their best player. If they win 1 game they are lucky. DePaul should outhustle them in the opener because Georgetown quits.
Conference Futures
Our Bets
St. John's+1904.0u
Creighton+50000.5u
Marquette+65000.5u
Xavier+200000.5u
WAC Conference Tournament
Las Vegas, Nevada
Orleans Arena
March 11-14, 2026
7-team field. Seeds 1-2 (Utah Valley, Cal Baptist) get byes to the semifinals. Seeds 3-5 get byes to the quarterfinals. Seeds 6-7 play first round (Wednesday). Quarterfinals Thursday. Semifinals Friday. Championship Saturday on ESPN2. Final season as the WAC before rebranding to the United Athletic Conference.
Regular Season Recap
Utah Valley is -110 and gets a bye to the semis while Cal Baptist is +170 and also gets a bye. This is a short 7-team field and a very top-heavy one where the whole world thinks 1 and 2 end up in the finals. Utah Valley has never won the WAC tournament championship despite being the 1 seed. Grand Canyon dominated this tournament for 3 straight years before leaving for the Mountain West, creating a power vacuum. The bracket is simple: Utah Valley's semifinal opponent comes from the UTA/Southern Utah quarterfinal. Cal Baptist's semifinal opponent comes from the ACU/Tarleton first round winner vs Utah Tech quarterfinal. There is no reason to bet either of the top two straight because if they play each other in the finals you will basically get the same odds, so it's not worth it.
SysTom Title Favorites
Utah Valley
24-7-110
Notes: Best KenPom Net in the WAC by over 5 points. Best defense and best shooting efficiency in the conference. Four balanced scorers and cracker factor for days. 15-0 at home. But has never won the WAC tournament championship and the road record is mediocre. No value at this price.
Cal Baptist
23-8+170
Notes: Dominates the glass with the best rebounding in the WAC. Has a nuclear scorer who gets buckets without a conscience and two oak trees in the frontcourt. Won 13 of their final 15. 15-0 at home. But Daniels-dependent and no value at this price either.
SysTom Mid-Range Snipers
Southern Utah
10-21N/A
Notes: Can score and shoot (2nd best three-point shooting in the WAC) and is the 28th tallest team in the country. But can't play defense (worst in the conference) and is 2-15 on the road. 10-21 overall tells you this team just can't win. Waiting on odds.
SysTom Hail Marys
Tarleton State
14-17+2200
Has one of the highest individual scorers at any level who can win a game by himself. This team has been banged up all year and for the first time in a long time will actually be somewhat healthy. I bet Tarleton every single tournament in every single sport since they got to D1 because there is something about this school as giant killers. Throw their stats out the window. Love them Day 1.
Tournament History
Double Byes (to Semis): Utah Valley, Cal Baptist
Seeds 3-5 get byes to quarterfinals. Seeds 6-7 play first round Wednesday.
Key Historical Notes
•Grand Canyon dominated this tournament for 3 straight years (2023-2025) before leaving for the Mountain West.
•This is a wide-open tournament for the first time in years.
•Utah Valley has NEVER won the WAC tournament championship despite consistent success.
•Cal Baptist is making their tournament debut.
•Only 3 current WAC teams have ever made the NCAA Tournament (Abilene Christian, UT Arlington, Southern Utah).
•Final season as the WAC before rebranding to the United Athletic Conference.
Last 5 Champions
2025
Grand Canyon
2
Notes: GCU made it four straight WAC titles. Beat Utah Valley in the championship game before departing for the Mountain West.
2024
Grand Canyon
1
Notes: Three-peat for the Lopes. Complete dominance of this conference.
2023
Grand Canyon
5
Notes: GCU won it from the 5 seed. Proved they could win from anywhere in the bracket.
2022
New Mexico State
1
Notes: Aggies took it before leaving the WAC. Chalk run from the top.
2021
Grand Canyon
1
Notes: GCU started their dynasty run from the 1 seed.
Team Cliff Notes
1
Utah Valley
-110
Strengths: Best KenPom Net in the WAC by over 5 points, meaning they're the most efficient team in the conference and it's not close. Best defense in the league. Best shooting efficiency. Four balanced double-figure scorers means no single-player dependency, which is huge in a tournament where one guy can have an off night. Perfect 15-0 at home. Cracker factor for days. Bye to the semis.
Weaknesses: 6-7 on the road is concerning for a team this talented. Not experienced. Below average cover rate. The three-point shooting is mediocre. Has never won the WAC tournament championship, including losing to GCU in last year's final. The lack of tournament pedigree is real.
Notes: No value at -110. Best team in the conference by the numbers but the road record and the lack of tournament pedigree give me pause.
2
Cal Baptist
+170
Strengths: Best rebounding team in the WAC in both offensive and total boards, which creates second chances and suffocates opponents. Has a nuclear scorer averaging over 22 a game who gets buckets without a conscience. Won 13 of their final 15. Perfect 15-0 at home. Solid defense. Good cover rate. High under rate means they grind you. Two oak trees in the frontcourt anchor the rebounding. Bye to the semis.
Weaknesses: Very small outside the bigs. The EFG is second worst in the conference. The three-point shooting is mediocre. Not experienced. Split road record. Completely dependent on one scorer, and if he goes cold, this team can't generate offense from anywhere else.
Notes: No value at +170. Fun team with bigs and a killer, but if they play Utah Valley in the final you basically get the same odds anyway. Not worth betting straight.
3
Utah Tech
+1600
Strengths: Best three-point shooting in the entire conference. Best cover rate in the WAC, meaning they've been competitive against the number all year. 46th tallest nationally gives them a real physical edge. Four double-figure scorers. Tall guys who get buckets and are pretty good at everything.
Weaknesses: The defense is below average. Negative KenPom Net. Worst offensive rebounding among the top 5 seeds, which means no second chances. Poor road record. Not experienced. Went 1-2 against Cal Baptist and Utah Valley. Rebounding is the thing that worries me most.
Notes: A ton of tall guys who get buckets and are pretty good at everything except rebounding, which is the thing that worries me. Would have to beat both Cal Baptist and Utah Valley. Interesting but I don't think they get there.
4
UT Arlington
+850
Strengths: Second best defensive PPG in the WAC. The defense grades out well by adjusted efficiency. Solid rebounding. Highest under rate in the conference means every game is a rock fight. Two experienced seniors who can score.
Weaknesses: Worst three-point shooting in the entire conference at under 30%. The offense is second worst by adjusted efficiency. Terrible EFG. Not experienced and undersized. The offense and shooting are a disaster. Can grind a game into dust but can't score when it matters.
Notes: Good defensively but under 30% from three. Can grind a game into dust but can't score when it matters.
5
Southern Utah
N/A
Strengths: Second best three-point shooting in the conference. Can score at 76+ a game. 28th tallest team in the country, which is a massive physical advantage. Has a freshman scorer and an experienced big who can play.
Weaknesses: Worst defense in the entire conference. Terrible adjusted defensive efficiency. The worst KenPom Net in the WAC. 2-15 on the road. 10-21 overall. Very inexperienced. Can't play defense and can't win games despite being able to score.
Notes: Can score and shoot but can't play D. 2-15 on the road tells you everything. Not a serious play.
6
Abilene Christian
+3500
Strengths: Has a senior scorer who can get his own bucket. Decent defensive PPG. More experience than most of the bottom of the field.
Weaknesses: Negative KenPom Net by a wide margin. Terrible road record. Worst offense in the entire conference by adjusted efficiency. Undersized. Poor three-point shooting. Below average cover rate.
Notes: No interest. First-round fodder for Tarleton.
7
Tarleton State
+2200
Strengths: Has one of the highest individual scorers at any level, averaging 23.6 a game. That kind of scoring can win you a game by himself at this level. Best free throw shooting in the conference. Above average cover rate. Now getting healthy for the first time all season after everyone on the roster missed 10+ games, meaning this is not the same team the record suggests.
Weaknesses: One of the smallest teams in the entire country. Negative KenPom Net. The defense is mediocre. Terrible road record. Poor three-point shooting. Not experienced enough. Has to play the extra game as the 7 seed.
Notes: My darling. I bet Tarleton every single tournament in every single sport since they got to D1 because there is something about this school as giant killers. Throw their stats out the window since pretty much everyone was injured. Their scorer at 23.6 PPG can win a game by himself. Sucks they have to play the extra game, but sprinkle on the Texans. Love them Day 1 for sure.
Conference Futures
Our Bets
Tarleton State+22000.5u
Mountain West Conference Tournament
Las Vegas, Nevada
Thomas & Mack Center
March 11-14, 2026
12-team field. Top 4 seeds get double byes to the quarterfinals. Seeds 5-8 get first-round byes. Seeds 9-12 play first round. Championship game on CBS. All games at Thomas & Mack Center in Las Vegas (UNLV's home court).
Regular Season Recap
The Mountain West is a CRAZY conference this year. Everyone brings something different to the table and that's what makes it the Mountain Best. Just to show you how insane this conference is, you have FIVE teams on FanDuel with odds under +650. Most conferences don't have three or four. Utah State leads the way by KenPom but Grand Canyon and San Diego State are the defensive monsters. Boise State is surging. New Mexico is fading. Colorado State can shoot with anyone. Nevada has dark horse shooting numbers. And UNLV gets to play at home. The top half of the bracket is stacked, giving SDST the best road of the big guys.
SysTom Title Favorites
Utah State
25-6+185
Notes: Best KenPom Net in the conference by nearly 3 points. Best offense. 20th most experienced roster in the country. But the cover rate is the worst among the top 5 teams, meaning they've been underperforming expectations all year. Conference is too wide open to take this price.
Grand Canyon
20-11+550
Notes: My favorite team in this conference all year. 13th most experienced and 17th tallest in the entire country. That's a squad of DAWGS. Best defense in the conference. As long as the whistles aren't too tight, GC is my leader in the clubhouse. +550 is amazing value.
San Diego State
20-10+370
Notes: Tied with Grand Canyon for the best defense in the entire conference. Basically a GC clone except more consistent and stable. Best road in the bracket of the big guys. It wouldn't be a Mountain Best tournament without putting a future on the Aztecs.
SysTom Mid-Range Snipers
Nevada
20-11+1800
Notes: Can rain from three (2nd best in the conference), board, and make FTs. Strong tournament history. +1800 is always a dart worth throwing with their shooting.
SysTom Hail Marys
UNLV
16-15+5000
Playing at HOME at Thomas & Mack. Has a certified bucket averaging over 20 a game. Beat Utah State, Nevada, and Boise late. Coming in hot with real upside.
Wyoming
18-13+6500
Coming in winning 5 of 6. Four guys who can score. +8000 seems high, should be around 3500-4000. But 3-9 on the road is atrocious.
Tournament History
Double Byes: Utah State, San Diego State, New Mexico, Grand Canyon
Seeds 5-8 get first-round byes. Seeds 9-12 play first round Wednesday.
Key Historical Notes
•3 of the last 5 champions were the 1 seed (SDST in 2021 and 2023, Boise in 2022).
•New Mexico won it as a 6 seed in 2024 and Colorado State as the 2 in 2025.
•This tournament has mid-seed upside.
•Grand Canyon dominated the WAC tournament before joining the MW this year.
•UNLV has the home-court advantage at Thomas & Mack.
Last 5 Champions
2025
Colorado State
2
Notes: Rams took it from the 2 line. Showed this tournament isn't just a top-seed showcase.
2024
New Mexico
6
Notes: 6 seed chaos. Lobos ran through the bracket from the bottom of the standings.
2023
San Diego State
1
Notes: Aztecs repeated. Another defensive masterclass that carried into a Final Four run.
2022
Boise State
1
Notes: Broncos dominated as the 1 seed.
2021
San Diego State
1
Notes: Aztecs took it from the top line. Classic SDST defense-first run.
Team Cliff Notes
1
Utah State
+185
Strengths: Best KenPom Net in the conference by nearly 3 points. Best offense in the league by adjusted efficiency. Elite shooting efficiency. 20th most experienced roster in the country, meaning they've seen everything. Strong at home at 14-1. Double-bye.
Weaknesses: Worst cover rate among the top 5 teams, which means they've been underperforming expectations all year despite the record. Poor free throw shooting. Not tall. The road record is mediocre at 7-5. High over rate means games tend to be shootouts. The cover rate is the real red flag for a team this talented.
Notes: I love Utah State but this conference is WAY too wide open to take +190. See ya in the Big Tourney where I will probably bet you to the Sweet 16, but there is zero value here.
2
San Diego State
+370
Strengths: Tied for the best defense in the entire conference by adjusted efficiency. Strong KenPom Net. Solid three-point shooting and free throw shooting. Experienced roster. Dominant at home at 14-2. Best road in the bracket of the big guys. Balanced with multiple guys who can score. Double-bye.
Weaknesses: The road record is an even .500. Below average offensive rebounding. No single dominant scorer, which means no one can take over a game when things get tight. Balanced but no go-to guy in crunch time.
Notes: Basically a Grand Canyon clone except more consistent and stable. Best road in the bracket. It wouldn't be a Mountain Best tournament without putting a future on my boys the Aztecs.
3
New Mexico
+550
Strengths: Strong KenPom Net. Second best defensive PPG in the conference. Can score and shoot from three. Solid road record. Strong at home. Double-bye.
Weaknesses: One of the least experienced teams in the entire conference at 310th nationally. Highest over rate in the conference means every game is a shootout. Limping in losing 3 of their last 4. Poor free throw shooting. The youth and late-season fade are real concerns.
Notes: Same odds as GC but completely different trajectories. New Mexico is limping in losing 3 of 4. Can win but doesn't have my attention at these odds.
4
Grand Canyon
+550
Strengths: Tied for the best defense in the entire conference by adjusted efficiency. Best defensive PPG in the Mountain West. 13th most experienced and 17th tallest team in the entire country. That's a squad of DAWGS who will get in your ass on defense. Solid cover rate. High under rate means they grind you. Double-bye.
Weaknesses: Worst three-point shooting among the top 10 teams. The offense is the lowest among the top 5 by adjusted efficiency. Can't shoot from deep. The road record is just okay. If the whistles are tight this team could get in foul trouble because they play so physical.
Notes: My favorite team in this conference all year. I love the chip on their shoulder. As long as the whistles aren't too tight, GC is my leader in the clubhouse. +550 is amazing value for the 13th most experienced, 17th tallest team in the country with the best defense in the conference.
5
Nevada
+1800
Strengths: Second best three-point shooting in the conference. Good free throw shooting. Solid offensive rebounding. The offense grades out well. Strong at home at 15-2. Above average cover rate. Strong tournament history in the Mountain West.
Weaknesses: The defense is middle of the pack. 4-8 on the road is rough. Undersized. The defensive PPG isn't great.
Notes: Can rain from three, board, and make FTs. +1800 is always a dart worth throwing with their shooting and history.
6
Boise State
+650
Strengths: Second best offense in the conference by adjusted efficiency. 15th tallest team in the country, which is a real physical edge. Best free throw shooting in the entire conference. Coming in winning 5 straight. Experienced roster. Strong cover rate. Four guys who can score.
Weaknesses: The defense is decent but not elite. Defensive PPG is middle of the pack. Three-point shooting is average. The road record is okay but not great.
Notes: On fire coming in. 15th tallest in the country. +650 is fair but the hot streak makes them interesting. Same trajectory as GC but not getting the same attention.
7
Colorado State
+2500
Strengths: Best three-point shooting in the entire conference. Best EFG in the conference. Best cover rate in the conference, meaning they've been beating the number all year. Third best offense by adjusted efficiency. Experienced roster. Defending champs. Four guys who can score.
Weaknesses: Worst rebounding in the entire conference. The defense is the worst among the top 7. Defensive PPG is mediocre. A very different team than last year's champions.
Notes: Best shooting team in the conference but worst rebounding and suspect defense. Defending champs with the best cover rate, but can't crash the glass.
8
UNLV
+5000
Strengths: Has a certified bucket averaging over 20 a game. Playing at HOME at Thomas & Mack, which always makes them viable. Beat Utah State, Nevada, and Boise late. Nailbiter loss to SDST. The offense grades out well. Can shoot from three. Scores 80 a game. Coming in hot with real upside.
Weaknesses: The defense gives up almost 79 a game. 16-15 overall. Not experienced enough. Poor free throw shooting. The defense is the weak link by a mile.
Notes: The home court always makes them viable. The last 3 games show real upside and they're coming in hot. +5000 has value.
9
Wyoming
+6500
Strengths: Coming in winning 5 of 6. The offense grades out decently. Solid defensive PPG. Good offensive rebounding and total rebounding. Strong at home at 14-4. Four guys who can score.
Weaknesses: 3-9 on the road is atrocious. Not experienced. Undersized. Below average cover rate. Poor three-point shooting.
Notes: +8000 seems high; they should be around 3500-4000 where UNLV is. Won't win it, but the hot streak and value make a sprinkle worthwhile.
10
Fresno State
+17500
Strengths: Tied for the best cover rate in the conference. Has a senior scorer who can go off. Solid defensive PPG and adjusted defensive efficiency.
Weaknesses: The offense is below average. Can't score enough. Poor three-point shooting. 2-10 on the road. Not experienced enough.
Notes: Not interested. The cover rate is interesting but 2-10 on the road is disqualifying.
11
San Jose State
+25000
Strengths: Has a guy who can fill it up at 20+ a game. Decent three-point shooting.
Weaknesses: Terrible KenPom Net. One of the worst defenses in the conference. 1-12 on the road. Undersized. Very inexperienced. Can't stop anyone.
Notes: Not interested. 1-12 on the road. Drawing dead.
12
Air Force
+25000
Strengths: Nothing.
Weaknesses: 0-12 on the road. 3-28 overall. Worst KenPom Net in the conference by a country mile. Can't score. Poor free throw shooting. One of the least experienced teams in the country. Worst cover rate. The worst team in the conference and one of the worst in the country.
Notes: 0-12 on the road and 3-28 overall. Absolutely drawing dead.
Conference Futures
Our Bets
Grand Canyon+5502.0u
San Diego State+3702.0u
Nevada+18000.5u
UNLV+50000.25u
Wyoming+65000.25u
MEAC Conference Tournament
Norfolk, Virginia
Norfolk Scope Arena
March 11-14, 2026
7-team field (down from 8 due to a violation). Howard is the ONLY team with a bye. Everyone else plays from the first round. Championship earns the auto-bid to March Madness.
Regular Season Recap
Howard is -370 in this tournament and is the ONLY TEAM with a bye due to a violation forcing the league to go to 7 teams. There's a big structural edge here for BY FAR the best team in the league. I literally have trouble making a case for any team outside of Howard. It's not that Howard is amazing (they have a -3.09 KenPom Net, meaning they're slightly below average nationally), but every other team fucking sucks. This is by far the funniest conference on the data sheet. It looks like a crime scene with all the red, and then you see Howard who is the only team not bleeding out. The gap between Howard (-3.09 Net) and the next best team, Norfolk State (-14.25 Net), is over 11 KenPom points. That's like comparing a mid-major to a D2 team. This conference is worse than a lot of D2 conferences.
SysTom Title Favorites
Howard
18-10-370
Notes: Leads the MEAC in literally every meaningful offensive and defensive category. 73.1% cover rate is absurd. Gets a bye while everyone else has to fight through extra games. Won this tournament in 2023 and 2024. The gap between Howard and the rest of this conference is not even a gap, it's a canyon.
Tournament History
Bye: Howard
All other seeds play from the first round due to 7-team field.
Key Historical Notes
•Norfolk State has won 3 of the last 5 (2021, 2022, 2025).
•Howard won it back-to-back in 2023-2024 (as the 1 seed and 4 seed).
•The conference champion historically gets destroyed in the NCAA Tournament first round, but the auto-bid is the auto-bid.
Last 5 Champions
2025
Norfolk State
1
Notes: NSU reclaimed the crown. Classic MEAC pendulum.
2024
Howard
4
Notes: Howard repeated from the 4 seed. Back-to-back titles.
2023
Howard
1
Notes: Bison took it from the top seed. Started their run.
2022
Norfolk State
1
Notes: NSU repeated as the 1 seed. Dominant.
2021
Norfolk State
2
Notes: Spartans took it from the 2 line.
Team Cliff Notes
1
Howard
-370
Strengths: Leads the MEAC in literally every meaningful category: defensive PPG, three-point shooting, EFG, free throw shooting, offensive rebounding, and total rebounding. The 73.1% cover rate is absurd and the best in the conference by 17+ points. Three double-figure scorers with size and youth. Only team with a bye while everyone else has to grind through extra games. Won this tournament in 2023 and 2024. Plus-9.6 scoring margin in a conference where nobody else is close.
Weaknesses: Tiny at 335th in height. Not super experienced. The KenPom Net is -3.09, meaning they are still slightly below average nationally. 7-6 on the road. The team itself is not amazing in a national context, they're just miles better than everyone else in this conference.
Notes: Just slam Howard with Florida in a max bet futures parlay and use Howard in all your futures parlays. The gap between Howard and the rest of this conference is not even a gap, it's a canyon. 73.1% cover rate in a conference where the next-best KenPom Net is 11 points worse. This is a formality.
2
Morgan State
+1800
Strengths: Three experienced seniors who can score. Above average cover rate for this conference.
Weaknesses: The KenPom Net is -20.82, which is horrific. The defense gives up almost 79 a game. One of the smallest teams in the country. The road record is poor. The gap to Howard is enormous.
Notes: Not a real threat. Crime scene.
3
North Carolina Central
+2200
Strengths: Has a sophomore scorer who can get buckets. Below average cover rate but at least competitive.
Weaknesses: The KenPom Net is -20.07. The defense is terrible. One of the smallest teams in the entire country. 4-12 on the road. The gap to Howard is enormous.
Notes: Not a real threat. Crime scene.
4
Norfolk State
+600
Strengths: Best of the rest. Most experienced team in the conference outside of Howard. Can shoot from three (2nd best in the MEAC). Three senior scorers. Won this tournament 3 of the last 5 years, so the pedigree is undeniable.
Weaknesses: The KenPom Net is -14.25, which is 11 points worse than Howard. The defense is poor. Terrible free throw shooting. Bad road record. Undersized. The talent gap to Howard is massive this year despite the pedigree.
Notes: The tournament pedigree is real (3 of last 5 champs) but the talent gap to Howard is massive this year. Would need Howard to have a total meltdown. Not betting it.
5
South Carolina State
+4000
Strengths: Nothing meaningful.
Weaknesses: 9-21 overall. 3-16 on the road. KenPom Net is -25.2. Gives up almost 80 a game. Negative 13.1 scoring margin. One of the least experienced teams in the country.
Notes: Fucking disaster.
6
Maryland Eastern Shore
+2200
Strengths: Nothing meaningful.
Weaknesses: 8-22 overall. 2-18 on the road. KenPom Net is -19.6. Shooting 29.1% from three. Very inexperienced.
Notes: Fucking disaster.
7
Delaware State
+10000
Strengths: Nothing meaningful.
Weaknesses: 7-21 overall. 2-14 on the road. Worst KenPom Net in the entire MEAC at -27.88. Worst offense in the conference. Shooting 28.9% from three. 42.5% EFG. Worst cover rate in the conference.
Notes: Fucking disaster.
Conference Futures
Our Bets
Howard + Florida+1095.0u
Howard + South Florida+1393.0u
MAC Conference Tournament
Cleveland, Ohio
Rocket Mortgage Fieldhouse
March 12-14, 2026
Top seeds get byes. All games at Rocket Mortgage Fieldhouse in Cleveland.
Regular Season Recap
This is fucking insane. Miami OH ended the season ranked top 20, went 31-0 (16-0 home, 14-0 away), went 18-0 in conference, and they are NOT EVEN THE FAVORITE to win their own conference tournament. Akron went 17-1 in conference and is the -145 favorite while the undefeated team sits at +230. Miami and Akron are the only 2 teams to seriously consider in this bracket, and I am going with Miami while the world goes with Akron. Now hear me out: I know this seems like the public donkey bet, but EVERYONE THINKS THIS TEAM IS FAKE and no one respects them AT ALL. Every single sharp person I talk to is on Akron and NO ONE is on Miami OH, all everyone is doing is shitting on them. The amount of battles Miami OH has been through this season (playing playoff games for weeks chasing the perfect season, getting every team's best shot) makes them battle-tested and tournament-ready. If you are going to give me +230 with an undefeated team, I am taking it.
SysTom Title Favorites
Miami OH
31-0+230
Notes: The only undefeated team in Division I. Five double-figure scorers. Best EFG and best cover rate in the conference. 14-0 on the road is absurd. Battle-tested all year getting every team's best shot. EVERYONE THINKS THIS TEAM IS FAKE. At +230 with an undefeated team, I am taking it.
Akron
26-5-145
Notes: Best KenPom Net in the MAC by 4 points. Best three-point, free throw, and offensive efficiency in the conference. Won this tournament 3 of the last 4 years. Dynasty pedigree. But 351st in height and -145 against an undefeated team getting +230 is not where I want to be.
SysTom Mid-Range Snipers
Kent State
23-8+1500
Best rebounding team in the MAC who can get up buckets. But worst cover rate in the conference and worst defensive PPG among the top 8. Inconsistent but a real threat if the boards and shots fall.
Toledo
17-14+1600
Decent shooting and balanced scoring. Definitely live but this is a 2-horse race. Fine but not exciting.
SysTom Hail Marys
Bowling Green
18-13+1600
Best defensive PPG among the non-top-2 teams. 66th tallest nationally, which is a real physical advantage in a conference where most teams are tiny. Definitely live with the size and defense.
Tournament History
Key Historical Notes
•Akron has won this tournament 3 of the last 4 years (2022, 2024, 2025). Dynasty pedigree.
•3 of the last 5 champions were NOT the 1 seed (Ohio as a 5 in 2021, Akron as a 4 in 2022, Akron as a 2 in 2024).
•The MAC loves upsets and mid-seeds have historically had a real path.
Last 5 Champions
2025
Akron
1
Notes: Three-peat for the Zips. Dominated from the top seed. Dynasty territory.
2024
Akron
2
Notes: Zips repeated from the 2 seed. Back-to-back titles.
2023
Kent State
2
Notes: Golden Flashes took it from the 2 line.
2022
Akron
4
Notes: Zips broke through from the 4 seed. Started the Akron dynasty.
2021
Ohio
5
Notes: Classic mid-major chaos. The 5 seed ran through the bracket.
Team Cliff Notes
1
Miami OH
+230
Strengths: 31-0. The only undefeated team in Division I. 16-0 at home, 14-0 on the road. Best EFG in the MAC. Best cover rate in the conference at 67.9%. Five double-figure scorers means the offense is incredibly balanced with no single-player dependency. Experienced roster. Battle-tested all year getting every team's best shot, meaning they've already played pressure games for weeks. High over rate means they score in bunches.
Weaknesses: The offensive rebounding is the lowest among top seeds and second worst in the entire conference, meaning zero second chances. The defense is not elite. Not tall. The KenPom Net is notably lower than Akron's (+9.16 vs +13.2). Have been playing playoff games for weeks chasing the perfect season and may be gassed.
Notes: I know this seems like the public donkey bet, but EVERYONE THINKS THIS TEAM IS FAKE and no one respects them. Every single sharp is on Akron and NO ONE is on Miami OH. I think they are fairly equal, but the battles this team has been through make them tournament-ready. If you are giving me +230 with an undefeated team, I am taking it.
2
Akron
-145
Strengths: Best KenPom Net in the MAC by 4 points. Best three-point shooting, best free throw shooting, and best adjusted offensive efficiency in the conference. Four senior scorers with dynasty pedigree, having won this tournament 3 of the last 4 years. Perfect 15-0 at home. Strong rebounding. The metrics say they're the best team in the conference and the pedigree is undeniable.
Weaknesses: 351st in height is TINY and a real concern. 9-3 on the road vs Miami's perfect 14-0. Lower cover rate than Miami (55.2% vs 67.9%). Not as experienced as you'd expect. The defense is not elite.
Notes: Probably the better team by the metrics, but -145 with a team ranked 351st in height against an undefeated squad getting +230 is not where I want to be. The world wants Akron/Miami OH in the final and that's what the world will get.
3
Kent State
+1500
Strengths: Best rebounding team in the entire conference in both offensive and total boards. Can score at almost 86 a game. Solid three-point shooting. Four guys who can score with experience and size. Strong at home at 14-3.
Weaknesses: Worst defensive PPG among the top 8 seeds at 80 a game. Worst cover rate in the entire conference, meaning they've been wildly inconsistent against the spread all year. Tiny. The defense is poor by adjusted efficiency. The KenPom Net drops massively from the top 2.
Notes: Rebounding machine who can get up buckets, so they are a threat. But worst cover rate in the conference and worst DPPG among the top 8 means they're inconsistent. A live mid-range sniper if the boards and shots fall.
4
Toledo
+1600
Strengths: Second best offense in the MAC by adjusted efficiency. Can score over 80 a game. Solid three-point and free throw shooting. Above average cover rate. Balanced scoring with four guys in double figures. High under rate means games stay close.
Weaknesses: The defense is mediocre. Tiny at 304th in height. Not experienced. 5-9 on the road is poor. The gap to the top 2 is enormous by KenPom.
Notes: Fine but not exciting. Decent shooting and balanced scoring. Definitely live but this is a 2-horse race.
5
Bowling Green
+1600
Strengths: Second best defensive PPG in the entire MAC. 66th tallest nationally, which is a real physical advantage in a conference where most teams are tiny. Second best defense by adjusted efficiency. Four guys who can score with size. High under rate means games are rock fights where anything can happen.
Weaknesses: The KenPom Net is barely positive. Below average cover rate. .500 in conference play. The offense isn't dynamic enough. The three-point shooting is average.
Notes: Definitely live with the size and defense, but like Toledo this is a tier below the top 2. Worth a sprinkle at best.
6
Ohio
+4500
Strengths: One of the most experienced teams in the conference. Three double-figure scorers who have been through wars.
Weaknesses: Worst three-point shooting in the entire conference at 29.6%. The defense is poor. Deeply negative KenPom Net. Bad road record. Undersized. Poor cover rate. Can't shoot and can't defend.
Notes: Can't shoot and can't defend. Not a real threat.
7
Buffalo
+4500
Strengths: Third best three-point shooting in the conference. Three guys who can light it up from deep. Solid cover rate. Decent road record at 8-6.
Weaknesses: One of the worst defenses in the MAC by adjusted efficiency. Negative KenPom Net. Losing record at home, which is bizarre. Tiny. High over rate means every game is a shootout. Can shoot but can't stop anyone.
Notes: Can shoot but can't stop anyone. Live as a one-game upset if the 3s are falling, but nothing beyond that.
8
UMass
+4500
Strengths: Four double-figure scorers. One of the most experienced teams in the field. Strong offensive rebounding and total rebounding. Decent three-point shooting.
Weaknesses: 2-8 on the road is atrocious. Worst free throw shooting in the entire conference, which kills you in close tournament games. Second worst cover rate. The defense is poor. Negative KenPom Net.
Notes: Experienced but 2-8 on the road and worst FT% in the conference. Not going anywhere.
Conference Futures
Our Bets
Miami OH+2301.0u
Ivy League Conference Tournament
Ithaca, New York
Newman Arena
March 14-15, 2026
4-team single-elimination bracket. Semifinals and Championship. Two games to win the auto-bid. The Ivy League didn't have a conference tournament until 2017. This year's tournament is at Cornell, giving them a home-court advantage.
Regular Season Recap
The best thing about the Ivy League is that it's the last conference to start, which means it's the last one to write up and it is the smallest. Only 4 teams. Two games. That's it. Yale is the best team in the league by a wide margin (10.25 KenPom Net, nearly 10 points clear of the field), but -125 is maniacal considering they just lost to Cornell 2 weeks ago and this tournament is a home game for Cornell, AND THAT IS THEIR OPENER. So although Yale is the best team, I will be betting the field. With every team's odds at +330 to +600, I'm throwing a unit on each and fading Yale.
SysTom Title Favorites
Cornell
15-12+330
Notes: This tournament is a HOME GAME for Cornell. They just beat Yale 2 weeks ago. Three seniors who can fill it up and the highest scoring team in the Ivy by a mile. Every game is a track meet. Can absolutely beat Yale at home if they get hot.
Yale
23-5-125
Notes: Best team in the league by far. Elite three-point shooting at any level. Won this tournament 3 of the last 4. The metrics say this team should steamroll everyone. But -125 is maniacal considering they just lost to Cornell and now open against them AT CORNELL.
Harvard
17-11+430
Notes: Lockdown defense, best in the Ivy League by a wide margin. Four double-figure scorers. Strong free throw shooting. Can absolutely stifle Yale's offense if they're locked in.
Penn
16-11+600
Notes: Coming in hot. Best cover rate and best rebounding in the Ivy. Can shoot from three. Controls tempo. At +600 in a 4-team field, worth a unit.
Tournament History
Key Historical Notes
•Yale has won 3 of the last 4 Ivy League tournaments (2022, 2024, 2025).
•Princeton won in 2023 as the 2 seed and went on to upset Arizona in the NCAA Tournament.
•The 2 seed has won 3 of the last 4 tournaments.
•No tournament was held in 2021 due to COVID.
•This tournament is at Cornell this year, giving them a home-court advantage.
Last 5 Champions
2025
Yale
1
Notes: Three-peat for the Bulldogs from the 1 seed. Dynasty.
2024
Yale
2
Notes: Yale repeated. Back-to-back Ivy titles.
2023
Princeton
2
Notes: Tigers won from the 2 line and then stunned Arizona in the NCAA Tournament. Iconic.
2022
Yale
2
Notes: Bulldogs took it from the 2 seed.
2021
N/A
-
Notes: COVID cancelled the tournament. No Ivy team in March Madness.
Team Cliff Notes
1
Yale
-125
Strengths: Best KenPom Net in the Ivy by nearly 10 points. Best offense in the conference by adjusted efficiency. 40.5% from three is elite at any level. Strong EFG. Four double-figure scorers. Won this tournament 3 of the last 4 years, so the pedigree is undeniable. Strong road record at 9-3. The metrics say this team should steamroll everyone.
Weaknesses: Below average cover rate. The defense is second worst in the field by adjusted efficiency. Just lost to Cornell 2 weeks ago. This tournament is at Cornell, meaning they open against the team that just beat them on that same team's home floor. That's a brutal draw for a favorite.
Notes: Yale at -125 is maniacal. They are the best team but they just lost to Cornell and now have to open against Cornell AT CORNELL. I am betting the field. Unit on Harvard, Penn, and Cornell and fading Yale.
2
Harvard
+430
Strengths: Best defense in the Ivy League by a wide margin, both by PPG and adjusted efficiency. Best free throw shooting in the conference. Experienced roster. Four double-figure scorers. High under rate means they grind you and keep games close. Strong road record at 9-6. The defensive identity is built for tournament play where one stop can change a game.
Weaknesses: Small at 298th in height. The offense is limited, ranking 3rd in the conference. Lowest scoring team in the field. Below average three-point shooting. Worst offensive rebounding in the conference. If the defense doesn't suffocate the opponent, the offense doesn't have enough firepower to win a shootout.
Notes: Harvard has a lockdown D that can stifle Yale's offense. The FT shooting and defensive identity make them a real threat in a 2-game tournament. At +430 in a 4-team field, there's value.
3
Penn
+600
Strengths: Best cover rate in the entire Ivy League at 69.2%. Best rebounding in the conference in both offensive and total boards. Second best three-point shooting. Highest under rate in the field means they control tempo and keep games on their terms. Strong at home at 12-2. Coming in hot. Has size at 113th nationally.
Weaknesses: Slightly negative KenPom Net. Worst free throw shooting in the tournament field, which kills you in close games. 4-8 on the road is ugly. Not experienced. The defense is middle of the pack.
Notes: Penn is hot and has the best cover rate and rebounding in the league. Can shoot from three. At +600 in a 4-team field, worth a unit.
4
Cornell
+330
Strengths: HOME GAME. Just beat Yale 2 weeks ago. Second best offense in the Ivy by adjusted efficiency. Highest scoring team in the conference by a mile at 88 a game. Strong three-point shooting. Good EFG. Three seniors who can fill it up with nothing to lose.
Weaknesses: Worst defense in the Ivy League by a country mile, giving up 83 a game. Worst adjusted defensive efficiency. One of the tiniest teams in the entire country at 358th in height. Essentially break-even KenPom Net. Every game is a shootout. If the shots don't fall, the defense can't save them.
Notes: This is a home game for Cornell and they just beat Yale. Three seniors with nothing to lose. At +330 with the home court and recent head-to-head, this is the most interesting play. Worth a unit.
Conference Futures
Our Bets
Cornell+3301.0u
Harvard+4301.0u
Penn+6001.0u
SEC Conference Tournament
Nashville, Tennessee
Bridgestone Arena
March 11-15, 2026
Top 4 seeds get double byes to quarterfinals (Friday). Seeds 5-8 get single byes to second round (Thursday). Seeds 9-16 play first round (Wednesday). Championship is Sunday.
Regular Season Recap
The SEC is a fucking mess. Pretty much every team in this conference is completely spastic except Florida. Most of these teams either play like top-10 squads or NIT teams depending on the day or even the half. Florida separated from the pack with a 16-2 conference record and is the only team you can trust. Arkansas would be in the next tier, followed by Alabama, Vanderbilt, and Tennessee, and then the rest of the field is volatile with upside. This is the live betting conference. Up to 10 SEC teams are projected NCAA Tournament bids, which tells you how deep and how chaotic this league has been all year.
SysTom Title Favorites
Florida
25-6-180
Notes: Reigning national champions and defending SEC tourney champs. Five double-figure scorers, absolutely mauling people on the glass with 16.0 offensive rebounds per game, and playing elite defense. This team is just going to destroy you on the boards and if you can't bang with them down low you are dead. I predicted Florida would win the national title in 2025 and bet them before anyone. I think they repeat.
SysTom Mid-Range Snipers
Arkansas
23-8+600
Notes: The SEC Player of the Year is confirmed available after resting a nagging ankle. Projected No. 1 overall pick who scored 49 in a double-OT game vs Bama. Best three-point shooting and best cover rate in the entire SEC. Away from Florida in the bracket, which is massive. The team won at Mizzou WITHOUT their star, proving the depth is real.
Vanderbilt
24-7+1200
Notes: Started 16-0 before leveling out. 17th most experienced roster in the country. Best free throw shooting in the conference. Four experienced scorers. But one of the smallest teams in the SEC and on Florida's side of the bracket, meaning Florida will absolutely bully them on the glass.
Alabama
23-8+750
Notes: Highest-scoring team in the SEC but also allows the most among any top-8 seed. Every game is a shootout. Won 9 of their last 10. The offense can outscore anyone but the defense can't stop a nosebleed. Got blown out by 23 at Florida.
SysTom Hail Marys
Kentucky
19-12+4500
MAJOR SLEEPER. Higher KenPom Net than several teams seeded above them. 19th tallest nationally. Love betting them in the second half because they always start slow then crank it up. Gets Missouri in Round 2. But playing Day 1 and needing five wins fucking sucks.
Missouri
20-11+10000
3rd tallest team in the entire country. Beat Florida last year in the SEC tourney and played them to a 2-point game this season. Shockingly may be the team that can stun Florida. But gets Kentucky first, then Florida. Dead on arrival from a bracket standpoint.
Auburn
16-15+15000
Lost 8 of their last 10. Complete disaster down the stretch. But gets an equally shitty Miss State team who lost their last 5. This could be a factory reset. We've seen it before with NC State where the factory reset brings out the preseason expectations. Worth a stab.
Seeds 5-8 get single byes to second round (Thursday). Seeds 9-16 play first round (Wednesday).
Key Historical Notes
•Kentucky has won the most SEC tournament titles with 32.
•Florida is the defending champion, beating Tennessee 86-77 in last year's title game.
•Florida used their 2025 SEC tourney run as a springboard to win six consecutive NCAA Tournament games and the national title.
•Up to 10 SEC teams are projected to make the 2026 NCAA Tournament.
•Florida is in prime position for a No. 1 seed on Selection Sunday, looking to become the first program to repeat as national champions since their own back-to-back runs in 2006-07.
Last 5 Champions
2025
Florida
2
Notes: Todd Golden's Gators won the tourney and then won the whole fucking thing. Six straight NCAA Tourney wins to cut down the nets.
2024
Auburn
4
Notes: The 4 seed broke through. Bruce Pearl's squad got hot at the right time.
2023
Alabama
1
Notes: Bama repeated as SEC tourney champs from the top line. Won it with offense.
2022
Tennessee
2
Notes: Rick Barnes' Vols took the title from the 2 seed. Strong, physical run.
2021
Alabama
1
Notes: Nate Oats' crew ran through Nashville as the top seed. Chalk result.
Team Cliff Notes
1
Florida
-180
Strengths: Reigning national champions. Best KenPom Net in the SEC by nearly 9 points. Top-10 offense AND top-5 defense nationally. 14th tallest team in the country. Five double-figure scorers. 16.0 offensive rebounds per game is absurd and will destroy anyone who can't match their physicality inside. Best total rebounding in the SEC. High under rate means they control tempo and grind you. Strong road record. Double-bye. Defending tourney champs who know how to win in Nashville.
Weaknesses: Worst three-point shooting in the entire SEC. Free throw shooting is bottom third. If a team can somehow keep them off the glass, force them into a perimeter-heavy game, and hit threes, there is a crack. But nobody in this conference has the size to do it consistently.
Notes: Can't bet them straight at -180, that's nuts. BUT they should be -180, so we will bet them in almost every conference parlay we put out. This team is going to bully people on the glass. If you can't bang with them down low, you are dead. Florida is going to win the SEC.
2
Alabama
+750
Strengths: Best offense in the SEC by adjusted efficiency. Highest-scoring team in the conference at 92 a game. Strong EFG and free throw shooting. Four double-figure scorers. Won 9 of their last 10 to climb the standings. Double-bye. Experienced roster.
Weaknesses: Worst defensive PPG among top-8 seeds in the SEC. Every game is a shootout with a high over rate. Below average cover rate. Got blown out by 23 at Florida. The defense simply cannot stop anyone, and against a team like Florida that can grind AND score, Alabama is cooked.
Notes: Dangerous as hell offensively but the defense is a liability. On the bottom half of the bracket away from Florida until a potential final. Could outscore their way to Sunday, but I'm not betting on a team that allows 83.6 PPG to win a tournament.
3
Arkansas
+600
Strengths: The SEC Player of the Year is confirmed available after resting a nagging ankle. Projected No. 1 overall pick who scored 49 in a double-OT game vs Bama. Best three-point shooting in the entire SEC. Best cover rate in the entire SEC at 67.7%. Strong adjusted offensive efficiency. The team won at Mizzou WITHOUT their star, proving the supporting cast can hold. 36th tallest nationally. Double-bye. Away from Florida in the bracket, which is massive.
Weaknesses: The defense is middle of the pack. Defensive PPG is mediocre. Split road record at 5-5. Young roster. The star's ankle is the elephant in the room. 'Available' and '100%' are two different things. If he's at 80%, this team's ceiling drops. High over rate tells you the defense is shaky.
Notes: The team I think could win this thing. Away from Florida in the bracket, which is massive. Their star is confirmed playing. We gotta stab the future even though I would like higher odds. If he's right, this team can beat anyone in the country.
4
Vanderbilt
+1200
Strengths: 17th most experienced roster in the country. Strong KenPom Net. The offense grades out well. Best free throw shooting in the SEC. Four experienced scorers. Started the season 16-0. Double-bye.
Weaknesses: One of the smallest teams in the SEC. The defense is just okay. On Florida's side of the bracket, meaning they likely get Florida in the semis. Florida will absolutely bully them on the glass. They leveled out hard after the 16-0 start. The size mismatch is just too much.
Notes: Has a shot but I honestly think they get mauled by Florida. The size mismatch is just too much. Vanderbilt doesn't have the frontcourt to compete with Florida's 16.0 ORB per game. Interesting team, wrong side of the bracket.
5
Tennessee
+1700
Strengths: Best defensive PPG in the entire SEC. Second best defense by adjusted efficiency. Second best offensive rebounding in the conference behind only Florida. 39th tallest nationally. Has a strong scoring duo.
Weaknesses: Free throw shooting is second worst in the SEC, which is a tournament killer. The offense is good but not elite. Below average cover rate. Split road record. Just missed a double bye after losing to Vandy. On Florida's side of the bracket.
Notes: Has no chance vs Florida. The defense is legit but the free-throw shooting is a disaster and they just aren't built to outscore Florida when the Gators inevitably dominate the boards. Not interested.
6
Texas A&M
+5000
Strengths: 8th most experienced roster in the country. Second best cover rate in the SEC. Solid three-point shooting and EFG. Highest over rate in the conference means their games are shootouts. Experienced, balanced scoring. Strong at home.
Weaknesses: The defense is middle of the pack. Very small. The high over rate tells you the defense is leaky even though the offense can keep pace. Not tall enough to hang with the top dogs physically.
Notes: Falls into the 'yeah I can see them making a run, but no I won't bet on it' category. Experienced and they cover a lot, but the size and defense aren't good enough to win four games in Nashville.
7
Georgia
+3500
Strengths: 4th best offense in the SEC by adjusted efficiency. Scores 90 a game. Solid offensive rebounding. Four double-figure scorers. Strong at home.
Weaknesses: The defense is suspect. Mediocre defensive PPG. Not tall. Average road record. Average cover rate.
Notes: Same bucket as Texas A&M. Can see the run, won't bet on it.
8
Missouri
+10000
Strengths: 3rd tallest team in the ENTIRE COUNTRY. Experienced roster. Has size everywhere. Strong EFG and decent three-point shooting. Beat Florida last year in the SEC tourney. Played Florida to a 2-point game this season. Strong at home.
Weaknesses: The defense is mediocre. Poor free throw shooting (3rd worst in SEC). Below average road record. Below average cover rate. Gets Kentucky in the second round and then Florida in the quarters. Dead on arrival from a positioning standpoint.
Notes: Missouri vs Kentucky will be probably the best live betting game of the year since both these teams are spastic. Shockingly, Mizzou may be the team that can stun Florida given the size matchup and recent history. At their odds we have to take a sprinkle, but the bracket position is brutal.
9
Kentucky
+4500
Strengths: KenPom Net is 6th in the SEC, higher than several teams seeded above them. Strong adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency. Solid scoring and defensive PPG. 19th tallest team in the country. Strong at home. Has a 7-footer providing interior size.
Weaknesses: Very young at 169th in experience. 4-6 on the road. Plays Day 1, meaning 5 games in 5 days to win it. Below average cover rate. Slow starters who turn it on in the second half, which is not ideal for a gauntlet format.
Notes: MAJOR SLEEPER. This team has a higher KenPom Net than Georgia, Texas A&M, and Missouri. I love betting them in the second half because they always start slow then crank it up. I like that they get Missouri in Round 2, which is the weakest of the first-round bye teams. But playing Day 1 and needing five wins fucking sucks. Worth a sprinkle.
10
Texas
+10000
Strengths: 3rd best offense in the SEC by adjusted efficiency. Can score at 84 a game. 4th most experienced roster in the country. Solid three-point and free throw shooting. Four double-figure scorers. Highest over rate in the SEC means every game is a track meet. Above average cover rate.
Weaknesses: The defense is a problem. Mediocre defensive PPG. Losing road record. The high over rate means they can't stop anyone. Against elite offenses, the defense will get them killed.
Notes: Falls into the 'yeah I can see them making a run, but no I won't bet on it' category. The offense is real but the defense will get them killed against the top teams.
11
Oklahoma
+12500
Strengths: 7th most experienced roster in the country. Second best three-point shooting in the SEC. Strong adjusted offensive efficiency. Won 6 of their last 8 and 4 in a row. Riding momentum hard. Four guys who can score.
Weaknesses: The defense is mediocre. Poor road record. Below average cover rate. Their season: 11-3, then 0-9, then 6-2. That volatility is terrifying.
Notes: The type of team that can win a few games on the weak side of the bracket. The hot streak is real, but the 9-game losing streak in the middle of the season tells you who they really are. Interesting but not confident.
12
Auburn
+15000
Strengths: Strong adjusted offensive efficiency. Can score at 83+ a game. Has two talented scorers. Decent size. Solid offensive rebounding.
Weaknesses: Lost 8 of their last 10. The defense is mediocre. 2-8 on the road. Second worst cover rate in the SEC. High over rate. Complete disaster down the stretch.
Notes: I fucking despise Bruce Pearl, but this could be a factory reset. They get an equally shitty Miss State team who lost their last 5. I think they either lose to Miss State or win 2-3 games and steal a bid to the NCAA Tourney. We've seen it before with NC State where the factory reset brings out the preseason expectations. Worth a stab even though they are fucking retarded.
13
Mississippi State
+30000
Strengths: Has a guy who can go off for 20+ on any given night. Experienced roster.
Weaknesses: Lost their last 5 coming in. Worst cover rate in the entire SEC. The defense is mediocre. Worst free throw shooting in the conference. Losing road record. Negative scoring margin. This team is broken.
Notes: Fucking disaster. Only here to potentially lose to Auburn or give Auburn a first-round exit.
14
South Carolina
+30000
Strengths: Has a senior scorer. Very experienced roster. Best free throw shooting in the SEC.
Weaknesses: Second worst offense in the SEC by adjusted efficiency. Dead last in the conference in both offensive and total rebounding. 2-8 on the road. Negative scoring margin. Weakest rebounding team in the conference.
Notes: Fucking disaster.
15
Ole Miss
+30000
Strengths: Has two guys who can score. High over rate means games are shootouts.
Weaknesses: Third worst cover rate in the SEC. Can't even win at home at 7-9. Losing road record. Negative scoring margin. Not experienced.
Notes: Fucking disaster.
16
LSU
+30000
Strengths: 9th most experienced roster in the country. Above average cover rate. Four double-figure scorers. Decent size. Good free throw shooting.
Weaknesses: 3-15 in conference play. The defense is mediocre. 3-7 on the road. Gets Kentucky in Round 1.
